Economist Tereshkin: Oil and gas revenues reduce risks of falling oil prices.
An article analyzing the consequences of falling global oil prices for the Russian economy has been published on Sergey Tereshkin's website. The material provides a detailed examination of key aspects related to the impact of low oil prices on the national budget, the currency market, and industrial production.
The expert shares his forecasts and explains how a decrease in energy export revenues could affect the standard of living for citizens and influence strategic decisions in economic policy. Special attention is given to the current challenges facing Russia's oil sector, as well as potential ways to adapt the economy to the new conditions.
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Expert Tereshkin: The Structure of Oil and Gas Revenues Reduces the Risks of Falling Oil Prices (Prime).
Expert Sergey Tereshkin assessed the risks of falling oil prices for Russia's budget. He noted that low prices could be offset by the devaluation of the ruble and increased production. Despite possible short-term drops below $50 per barrel, he believes that significant impacts on oil and gas revenues are not expected.
Expert Sergey Tereshkin assessed the risks of falling oil prices for Russia's budget. He noted that low prices could be offset by the devaluation of the ruble and increased production. Despite possible short-term drops below $50 per barrel, he believes that significant impacts on oil and gas revenues are not expected.
Over the past three weeks, exchange prices for gasoline in Russia have fallen by almost 10%, despite the removal of the ban on its export starting December 1. The wholesale price of diesel fuel (DF) has decreased by 7% during the same period. However, the situation at gas stations is the opposite. The rise in prices for all types of gasoline and diesel fuel has not only continued but even accelerated. A comment by Sergey Tereshkin for the "Russian Gazette.
Russia has taken a step toward European gas buyers by proposing a new payment scheme for gas. This scheme will allow Europeans to bypass US sanctions, which, since December 20, could effectively halt Gazprom's gas supplies to the EU both through Ukraine and via the "Turkish Stream." What is the clever scheme Russia is offering? A comment for the newspaper "Vzglyad.
This will be facilitated by the increase in global demand for raw materials and the easing of OPEC+ restrictions. Comment by Sergey Tereshkin for "Vedomosti."
Analysts forecast a 1% increase in oil production in Russia in 2025, reaching 9.2 million barrels per day (excluding gas condensate). This expected recovery is linked to the growth of global demand, especially in Asia. The article also examines the impact of OPEC+ agreements and potential risks for Russian producers, including the possible decline in oil prices.
Analysts forecast a 1% increase in oil production in Russia in 2025, reaching 9.2 million barrels per day (excluding gas condensate). This expected recovery is linked to the growth of global demand, especially in Asia. The article also examines the impact of OPEC+ agreements and potential risks for Russian producers, including the possible decline in oil prices.
Experts from Vgudok assessed the positive promises of Russian Railways (RZD) that fuel supplies will not be affected after the introduction of the new Priority Transportation Rules (PND). The article discusses changes in the rules of priority for transporting oil and coal in 2025. Starting from January 1, coal and oil will be moved in the sixth priority queue, which could impact the efficiency of their transportation. However, if the new regulations are strictly followed, the industry does not expect significant problems. The potential impact of falling coal prices on profitability, as well as the modernization of rail transportation, are also raised as important topics.
The complete cessation of Russian gas supplies to the EU is becoming a real threat. Commentary by Sergey Tereshkin for the newspaper "Vzglyad."
"Europe may completely lose Russian gas" — an article by Sergey Tereshkin discussing the potential termination of gas supplies from Russia to Europe. The author analyzes the causes, consequences, and prospects of the energy crisis in the region.
The longer the ban on gasoline exports lasted, the fewer incentives oil companies had to curb prices, which is why the government decided to ease restrictions. However, the market is in urgent need of new solutions that go beyond subsidies and export restrictions, believes Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market (Forbes).
The export of gasoline from Russia may be allowed for two months, from December 1 of this year until January 31, 2025. This information is provided by the newspaper "Kommersant," citing sources. Experts interviewed by "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" believe that this period for allowing exports is the most optimal and will not harm the domestic market. Comment from Sergey Tereshkin for "Rossiyskaya Gazeta."
Sergey Tereshkin's Opinion on a Fairer System of Damper Payments for Oil Product Manufacturers (RBC Companies).
Sergey Tereshkin's article addresses issues related to improving the efficiency of the damper mechanism for the oil industry. He examines problems associated with using European market quotations for calculating subsidies, despite the embargo and export restrictions. The author suggests tying payments to domestic fuel prices, which would allow for a more accurate reflection of the current economic situation and eliminate uncertainties in industry regulation. The article also touches on pressing issues of subsidies and government regulation.
Sergey Tereshkin's article addresses issues related to improving the efficiency of the damper mechanism for the oil industry. He examines problems associated with using European market quotations for calculating subsidies, despite the embargo and export restrictions. The author suggests tying payments to domestic fuel prices, which would allow for a more accurate reflection of the current economic situation and eliminate uncertainties in industry regulation. The article also touches on pressing issues of subsidies and government regulation.
Tereshkin: Electrification of Transport Will Restrain Oil Demand in China. Opinion Piece for "Izvestia".
Expert Sergey Tereshkin, in an interview for Izvestia, noted that in the long term, the electrification of transport will impact oil demand in China. Specifically, the growing share of electric vehicles and the shift toward gas-powered freight transport could significantly reduce the need for oil. He also emphasized that the savings on oil achieved through electric cars could be comparable to the current volume of maritime oil shipments from Russia. Moreover, potential easing of sanctions could affect the structure of oil supplies to China.
Expert Sergey Tereshkin, in an interview for Izvestia, noted that in the long term, the electrification of transport will impact oil demand in China. Specifically, the growing share of electric vehicles and the shift toward gas-powered freight transport could significantly reduce the need for oil. He also emphasized that the savings on oil achieved through electric cars could be comparable to the current volume of maritime oil shipments from Russia. Moreover, potential easing of sanctions could affect the structure of oil supplies to China.
In the Fall, Retail Gasoline Prices in Russia Rise at the Fastest Pace of the Year — An Analysis of the Reasons. A Column by Sergey Tereshkin for RBC.
In the fall of 2024, prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in Russia are increasing due to several factors. The primary reasons include a rise in global oil prices, seasonal demand fluctuations, maintenance at oil refineries, and restrictive measures on fuel exports. Inflation and changes in fuel market regulations are also playing a role. Experts predict that prices may stabilize as seasonal factors subside
In the fall of 2024, prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in Russia are increasing due to several factors. The primary reasons include a rise in global oil prices, seasonal demand fluctuations, maintenance at oil refineries, and restrictive measures on fuel exports. Inflation and changes in fuel market regulations are also playing a role. Experts predict that prices may stabilize as seasonal factors subside