1. Active Investing is Dead
The surge in investments in ETFs over the last decade or two has created the impression that there is no room for active investing. However, this does not mean that you should limit yourself to passive investing or investing in index funds. Stock indices are unlikely to continue rising year after year. When indices become stuck in a trading range, effective stock selection becomes crucial.
Investment advisors are forced to lower their fees, so it is understandable that they recommend ETFs more frequently. Indeed, ETFs have shown strong performance over the last decade, as a handful of companies have delivered high returns comparable to indices. However, if a restructuring of indices occurs, it will be challenging for index funds to outperform active funds.
2. Well-Known Companies Make Good Investments
Market experts also suggest owning shares of companies you like and respect. Warren Buffet famously stated that he does not invest in companies he doesn’t understand. It is true that he has made a lot of money from companies like Coca-Cola and is now an investor in Apple. However, much of his investment is allocated to very boring companies, such as insurers and furniture manufacturers.
Successful investing is all about finding stocks or other assets that represent good investments. Popular companies are often overvalued, making high returns unlikely. They also attract competition, which ultimately reduces profitability. As demonstrated by research in quantitative investing, in the long term, it is the stocks that consistently increase profits that often deliver the most reliable long-term gains.
3. You Should Shift to Defensive Stocks if You Think the Market Will Crash
Every few months, analysts and television experts begin to predict an imminent stock market crash. Subsequently, analysts recommend defensive stocks capable of withstanding a recession or bear market. These include companies in consumer goods and utilities, which are less sensitive to economic cycles.
Defensive companies are indeed less susceptible to economic downturns. However, here’s the catch: most predicted bear markets do not materialize. Investors attempting to time the market in this way often end up buying defensive stocks at inflated prices, only to sell them at a discount later.
At the same time, they miss out on the opportunity for gains from high beta stocks. The right way to protect a portfolio from bear markets or even black swan events is to diversify risk across asset classes. Investments such as hedge funds, private equity, commodities, and real estate are less sensitive to market volatility.
