Current News on Startups and Venture Investments as of September 18, 2026: OpenAI's Talks on a New Round, Mega Rounds in AI Development, Record Bonuses for Research Teams, New Unicorns, Valuation Gap Between Europe and the US, Transactions in India, and IPO Window Scrutinized Amid High-Cost Capital

By the end of the third week of September, the global venture market is living in two realities. On one hand, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2023—to 3.75–4.00%—and the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds exceeded 5%, with 16 out of 18 committee members anticipating another hike by year-end. On the other hand, private capital continues to exponentially overvalue AI leaders within a matter of months. For venture investors and funds, Friday, September 18, serves as a litmus test: will the appetite for risk withstand the new cost of capital?

Key topics on the venture agenda:

• OpenAI is in early talks for a round that could value the company above $1.2 trillion.
• Factory raised $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion—three times higher than its April figure.
• Discovery Loop founded by Jeff Dean is seeking capital at an approximate valuation of $50 billion, despite lacking a product and revenue.
• New unicorns: Profound ($1.8 billion), CADDi ($1.2 billion), Thatch ($1 billion).
• Europe: the median valuation of AI startups is nearly eight times lower than that in the US.
• IPO: Holtec's debut on Nasdaq is anticipated for Friday, while Oura prepares for a listing by the end of the month.

OpenAI and the Race for Trillion-Dollar Valuations

OpenAI has engaged in preliminary discussions regarding a new funding round that may value the company at over $1.2 trillion. The initiative came from investors, and the deal parameters are still subject to change. In March, the company closed the largest private round in history at $122 billion, valuing it at $852 billion, so a new benchmark would signify a rise of about 41% in less than half a year. In August, a tender offer to buy shares from employees was executed for $7 billion at the previous valuation.

The rationale is clear: IPO documentation has been submitted confidentially, but the listing has shifted to 2027, and the private round provides capital without public disclosure obligations. Annual revenue exceeded $40 billion as of July; however, 2025 concluded with a net loss of $38.5 billion against revenue of about $13 billion. Competitor Anthropic, which raised $65 billion in May at a valuation of $965 billion, is reportedly preparing for a Nasdaq listing this fall, while its shares are trading on the secondary market with an implied valuation of around $1.2 trillion. The first to go public will set the multiple for the entire sector.

AI Development: Factory and the Value of "Software Factories"

Startup Factory, which is developing AI agents called Droids for coding, testing, reviewing, and deploying software, secured $200 million at a valuation of $5 billion. The round was backed by Khosla Ventures, Blackstone, and Sequoia Capital, with business angels including Marc Benioff, Brad Gerstner, and Nico Rosberg. The valuation dynamics are indicative:

1. April—Series C at $150 million with a valuation of $1.5 billion;
2. July—expansion at $120 million with a valuation of $4 billion;
3. September—$200 million at a valuation of $5 billion, for a total of over $400 million raised.

Among its clients are major players like Nvidia, Adobe, Morgan Stanley, and Palo Alto Networks. The segment is overheated: Cognition raised over $2 billion in September at a valuation of $48 billion, while SpaceX acquired developer Cursor for $60 billion. Venture funds will need to determine whether corporate demand is sufficient to sustain multiple players with the same thesis.

Team Premium: Discovery Loop and Thinking Machines

Discovery Loop, founded on August 5 by former Google Chief Scientist Jeff Dean along with Sanjay Gemawat, Quoc Le, and Oriol Vinyals, is in discussions for funding at an approximate valuation of $50 billion. Just weeks earlier, discussions centered around a $1 billion raise at a valuation of roughly $10 billion. The first round was led by Radical Ventures and Khosla Ventures, with participation from Lightspeed and Kleiner Perkins, while Alphabet acts as a founding investor. The company aims to automate scientific experiments but currently lacks both product and revenue. Meanwhile, Thinking Machines Lab, led by Mira Murati, is also discussing a $1 billion raise at a valuation of $40 billion. The market is rewarding not based on metrics, but for access to rare research teams—this is the riskiest segment of the current cycle.

New Unicorns and Infrastructure Rounds of the Week

• Profound—$180 million Series D at a valuation of $1.8 billion led by Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins, seven months after Series C; the platform helps brands appear in AI search responses.
• CADDi—$114 million Series D at a valuation of $1.2 billion; an AI data platform for industrial manufacturing.
• Thatch—$108 million at a valuation of $1 billion from General Catalyst and Index Ventures.
• Lyte—$165 million Series C at a valuation of $1.6 billion; perception systems for "physical AI."
• TAR—$120 million Series A at a valuation of $1 billion from Spark Capital; autonomous power supply for data centers.
• Crusoe and Fluidstack—over $3 billion raised at evaluations of around $30 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively.

The common denominator remains: venture capital goes where there is scarcity—computing, energy, industrial data.

Europe: Growth Amid an Eightfold Discount

According to PitchBook, the median pre-money valuation of AI startups in Europe stands at €8.3 million compared to €64.2 million in the US. Notably, AI accounted for 60.2% of the value of European venture deals in the first half of the year, up from 37.8% in 2025, with a total value reaching €44 billion. Recent rounds include Integral (€18 million Series A, Mosaic Ventures and Reid Hoffman), Hackuity ($19 million Series B), and Veridion ($20 million Series A). Crane Venture Partners closed four funds worth $484 million. For global investors, the European discount presents both a liquidity risk and an entry point.

Asia: India Increases Weekly Volume

In the week of September 7-12, 24 Indian startups raised about $413 million—a 42% increase compared to the previous week. Leading the charge are space firm Pixxel ($100 million Series C from Temasek and Seraphim), restaurant chain Popo Global ($56 million from Artal Asia), and brand Nua ($50 million from Peak XV Partners). Since the beginning of the year, India has raised $16.3 billion across 1,450 rounds: fewer transactions, larger checks.

IPO and Macro: Examining the Offering Window

Trading for Holtec Nuclear on Nasdaq is set to begin on Friday under the ticker HNUC: 50 million shares in the range of $15–18, approximately $825 million at the midpoint, and a valuation of up to $10.2 billion. Demand for nuclear energy is buoyed by data centers, though the sector is uneven: X-energy trades below its IPO price, while Standard Nuclear fell on its first day. Oura hopes to list by the end of September with a valuation of over $16 billion. The market's reaction to the Fed was muted for tech: the Dow fell by 1.2%, while the Nasdaq remained nearly unchanged. The next benchmark will be the Bank of Japan's decision.

Russia and the CIS: A Market of Isolated Deals

Various estimates suggest that the Russian venture market contracted by about half in the first half of 2026, and the number of active investors dropped from 50 to 33; one methodology places the volume at just $29.3 million. In the CIS, 92% of investments came from the $131.5 million round of the Uzbek marketplace Uzum, with Uzbekistan accounting for 44 out of 58 deals in the region. Capital is concentrating in mature companies with confirmed revenue.

Implications for Venture Investors and Funds

1. The discount rate has increased, and so have leader valuations. The gap between the AI elite and the rest of the market will widen; late-stage valuations outside AI are poised for a reassessment.
2. The speed of revaluation is a risk in itself. A tripling in five months requires scrutiny of revenue retention, not just growth rates.
3. Bets on teams without products are justified solely within portfolio logic and with a limited share of the fund.
4. Geography offers arbitrage opportunities. The European discount and early rounds in India appear more attractive than overheated segments in the US.
5. Liquidity will define the autumn. The debuts of Holtec and Oura will indicate whether the public market is ready to absorb new listings at yields above 5%.

The venture market enters the last decade of September with record private valuations and the cost of capital at its highest in three years. Startups that can prove their economic viability, rather than just their potential, will prevail.