... There may also be attempts to reduce dampener payments in case of falling oil prices and declining budget revenues from the sector. The last attempt to reduce the dampener by half in 2023 led to an autumn fuel crisis. Kotov notes that the Ministry of Finance has repeatedly attempted to change the dampener mechanism to reduce payments. It is likely that the new mechanism will again focus on this goal (though officially, the aim is said to be the additional stabilization of the high-octane gasoline ...

... costs, and increased exports following the lifting of restrictions in May. Future Expectations If gas station prices catch up with inflation by summer’s end, government countermeasures are likely. Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, highlighted that last fall’s export ban proved effective in curbing prices, albeit with side effects, such as reduced fuel output, which could drive up prices in the medium term. Tereshkin predicts that the current price surge will ...

... 2024, the volume of seaborne exports to foreign markets increased by 140,000 b/d to 2.27 million b/d. Overall, regulating the industry is always a balance between 'carrot and stick.' It's no coincidence that the latest export ban coincided with the Finance Ministry’s draft law on splitting the fuel damper mechanism. Currently, oil companies may lose damper payments if exchange prices for AI-92 gasoline or diesel fuel exceed the threshold set in the Tax Code. However, under the draft law, the ...

... refineries. However, this measure did not effectively combat gray gasoline exports. "I believe the decision is driven by the desire to lower prices, as has been stated," said Alexander Titov, a senior expert at the Institute of Energy and Finance (IEF), to Forbes. "In May-June, there were reports about high gasoline exports, and domestic prices began to rise. Therefore, the government decided to revert somewhat to manual control and impose an export ban, especially since demand is ...

... skeptical about the new sanctions package. "Given that the USA has yet to join these sanctions, their effectiveness is in serious doubt," says Maxim Shevyrenkov, head of the raw materials market analysis center at the Institute of Energy and Finance (IEF). The price cap on Russian oil united the G7 in their economic sanctions against Russia, reminds Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert from the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund. Consequently, he notes that the EU's proposal ...