... September but 25% lower compared to October of last year. The main driver of revenue growth was an increase in collections under the Additional Income Tax (AIT), which reached 491.6 billion rubles in October. Tereshkin also points to the reduction in subsidies for oil refineries, which contributed to the increase in budget revenues. According to his forecast, the share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget for 2024 will remain around 31.7%, but it may decrease to less than 30% next year ...

... with a possible lifting of the export ban. However, according to analysts at OPEN OIL MARKET, this is not entirely true. Current fluctuations are still in line with the "10-20" formula, according to which oil companies lose their right to subsidies if average monthly gasoline prices exceed the internal reference price by 10%, or diesel prices exceed it by 20%. The upper threshold for the exchange price of gasoline is 64,515 rubles per ton. Currently, gasoline is trading at 60,500 rubles ...

.... Factors that could influence recovery include: Economic Stabilization. If the economy starts to show growth and external pressures decrease, investor confidence could return. Increased Government Support. Implementing tax incentives for investors, subsidies, and grants for startups could revitalize the market. Focus on Local Projects. In the context of Russia's isolation, developing the domestic market and supporting companies targeting local consumers is crucial. Growth of Priority Sectors. Areas ...

... for assistance are limited. The country may face the necessity of revising its economic and industrial policies to preserve its key industries. Possible Scenarios for Investors Government Intervention Scenario. If the government provides substantial subsidies and incentives for automakers, companies like Mercedes, BMW, and Volkswagen may navigate through these difficulties. However, this scenario would require significant budget expenditures and does not guarantee a return to long-term profitability....

... declining profitability. According to the latest data from Rosstat, the net profits of Russian oil refineries fell by 61.5% in the first five months of 2025, amounting to RUB 521.5 billion. Such a drastic decline is largely attributed to a reduction in subsidies for oil producers. While the payments under the "damping" mechanism (compensations from the budget for fuel supplies to the domestic market at prices below export levels) totaled RUB 985.9 billion in the first half of 2024, the equivalent ...