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Experts have revealed which fuel will experience the highest price increase at gas stations in 2025.
... different grades of gasoline will not have an impact.
He argues that changes in the calculation of dampener subsidies will not significantly affect retail fuel prices. The dampener only applies to exchange trading, which accounts for only 15% of wholesale fuel sales. On the other hand, the dampener will not affect AI-98 gasoline, which will remain the leader in price increases.
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Sourse: rg.ru/2025/01/07/eksperty-rasskazali-kakoe-toplivo-budet-silnee-dorozhat-na-azs-v-2025-godu....
The budget payments to oil workers will be divided by fuel types.
... prices increase, and this year will be no exception. The main increase will be observed not on the exchange but in the small wholesale segment, where prices reached 100,000 rubles per ton during last year's harvest season. Exchange prices briefly exceeded ... ... rubles per ton.
Energy expert Kirill Rodionov notes that oil companies are looking for loopholes to increase production and sales margins without the threat of losing subsidies or export bans. This concerns exchange prices for AI-95 gasoline and winter ...
The export ban has slowed the growth of exchange prices for gasoline.
... gasoline prices have risen 5% since the beginning of the year, while AI-95 has increased by 5.2%. Inflation as of July 29 stood at 4.99%. Vertically Integrated Oil Companies (VIOCs), which control the entire supply chain from extraction to gas station sales, may prefer to offset wholesale losses rather than attract regulatory scrutiny.
Seasonal Pressures Add to Market Strain
August and September are traditionally challenging months for Russia’s fuel market. Gasoline consumption remains high as the holiday season continues,...
Gasoline prices are still rising at gas stations, but they are already decreasing on the exchange.
..., it is unlikely that retail prices will start falling as early as next week.
As noted by Sergey Tereshkin, head of the OPEN OIL MARKET fuel marketplace, exchange prices for fuel have only an indirect impact on retail prices. Over 80% of gasoline sales occur in the off-exchange segment—shipments from refineries and oil depots.
Fuel station prices depend more on taxes and oil companies’ costs than on barrel quotes.
Off-exchange wholesale fuel prices generally follow exchange prices with some delay. For retail prices to respond to a decline in wholesale prices, even more time is needed, and the decline in quotes must continue consistently. A similar situation occurred in the ...
In the summer, the increase in fuel prices will outpace the overall inflation rate – expert
... in the price increase is the recovery of the Russian automotive market, which has returned to pre-crisis levels. In May 2022, sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia were 24.3 thousand units, whereas in May 2024, they amounted to 127.... ... increased from 25% in January-April 2023 to 27% in January-April 2024. The rising costs at refineries will contribute to higher wholesale and retail prices.
As a result, the data for June 2024 will show an acceleration in the annual growth rates of retail ...