... According to the Ministry’s forecast, productivity in 2025–2026 will increase by only ~2.2–2.3% per year, improving to around 2.8–2.9% by 2028. In other words, wage growth in Russia is outpacing productivity by nearly a factor of two. This gap poses risks for inflation and business performance: if companies have to pay employees significantly more without commensurate output gains, their costs rise and competitiveness can suffer. To maintain profitability, firms will need to either raise prices (further ...

... Many traders today are comparing the current situation to that period: High valuations of technology company stocks; A significant influx of retail investors willing to overpay for assets; Expectations of further growth without regard to fundamental risks. If history were to repeat itself, the market could face significant corrections in the coming years, especially if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. What Should Investors Do? Given the historical data and the current situation, investors should ...

... other countries. However, this did not lead to a threat of shortages, even despite a more than 30% increase in diesel demand on the domestic market between 2021 and 2023. The situation is different with gasoline, which is more susceptible to the risks of shortage due to limited excess capacity. This can be demonstrated by the daily production statistics available until the end of last spring. According to the latest data from Rosstat, gasoline production in Russia dropped by 18% from late February ...

... the influence of mixed factors. The conclusion of the tax period at the end of July has weakened support for the national currency, and last week the exchange rate fell to around ~80 rub/$ amid balancing between high export revenues and geopolitical risks. On Tuesday, market participants anticipate decisions from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Russia regarding currency operations volumes under the budget rule for August. If the regulator resumes significant foreign currency purchases ...

... rapid growth occurred over a short period, and investors have begun to fear overheating. The stock's valuation reached extremely high levels (P/E >> 50), making the shares vulnerable to even the slightest disappointment. Additionally, geopolitical risks (chip export restrictions to China) and limited production capacity add uncertainty. Hedge funds likely locked in profits after the grand rally of 2023, resulting in record low net longs on NVDA. Nevertheless, Nvidia remains fundamentally strong: ...