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Starting from August 1, the ban on fuel exports will be reinstated. What does this mean for the market?

....4% across Russia, while in July it was 0.5-0.6%, according to Rosstat data. By July 22, gasoline prices had increased by 4.7% compared to December 2023, while the official inflation forecast for 2024 was 5.1%. The Ministry of Energy believes that fuel prices in the retail segment remain stable, with no shortage of supply, and that the domestic market is fully supplied with gasoline and diesel fuel, the government reported on July 28 following a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. In mid-July, Novak ...

Russians were informed about when diesel prices in Russia will stabilize.

... locomotive capacity and limited throughput of Russian Railways. In such a situation, ensuring predictable delivery times is only possible through the use of road transportation, which leads to increased demand for diesel fuel. According to Rosstat, the retail price of diesel fuel rose by 0.3% for the first time since late July. The average retail price increased by 24 kopecks during the week of October 21-28, reaching 67.45 rubles per liter. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that sufficient reserves of ...

Why are gasoline and diesel prices rising in the fall of 2024

... demand fluctuations, maintenance at oil refineries, and restrictive measures on fuel exports. Inflation and changes in fuel market regulations are also playing a role. Experts predict that prices may stabilize as seasonal factors subside The Moscow Fuel Association (MTA) reported that last week, retail gasoline prices at gas stations in the capital rose by 17-18 kopecks, while diesel prices increased by 27 kopecks. The end of autumn is objectively a period of transition from summer and interseasonal to winter diesel fuel, which contributes to price increases....

Why the ban on gasoline exports did not stop the rise in gas station prices

... interest rate, and fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. The impact of international oil prices and seasonal factors also play a role in price changes. Experts predict that gasoline price growth will outpace inflation in 2024, especially for premium fuel grades. Retail gasoline prices have been outpacing inflation significantly for the second consecutive year by early autumn. According to Rosstat, inflation as of September 2 was 5.17%, while gasoline prices at filling stations rose an average of 6.7% since the start of the year....

The lifting of the ban on gasoline exports will not lead to an increase in gas station prices.

... have accelerated their rise. Between November 11 and 17, they increased by 17 and 18 kopecks for AI-92 and AI-95, respectively. Fresh data from Rosstat will be available on November 20, but so far, it has not recorded a decrease in average national fuel prices in the second half of this year. On the other hand, the connection between the announcement of lifting the export ban and the rise in retail prices is quite questionable—too little time has passed. Moreover, allowing exports should, in theory, improve the economics of oil refineries (ORFs) that supply gasoline abroad. These refineries are well aware that raising prices on the domestic ...