... companies "try to offset part of the arising costs by increasing exchange prices for AI-95." "Therefore, the extension of the export ban is used as a 'stick,' although the previously introduced measures were sufficient to curb the rise in retail fuel prices. If, from July 16 to 22, retail gasoline prices increased by 0.6%, from July 23 to 29 by 0.4%, and from July 30 to August 5 by 0.3%, the latest weekly summary from Rosstat will likely show further slowdown in retail price growth," he predicts....

... since July, when a temporary export ban was still in place). In August, AI-95 prices peaked at 74,818 rubles per ton. The historical record for AI-95 was set last fall, with prices reaching 76,876 rubles per ton. Exchange indicators reflect wholesale fuel prices, and their dynamics do not immediately affect retail price differences but only with a time lag, which can last up to two months. According to Rosstat data, gasoline retail prices have been rising faster than inflation since early August. From September 3 to 9, consumer gasoline prices in Russia ...

... indicating a decrease in prices on average across the country. However, experts surveyed by "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" believe that the government's decision to fully prohibit gasoline exports—previously restricted for traders, but now also affecting fuel producers—will either halt or at least slow down retail price increases. In light of the export ban, oil producers will strive to curb the rise in retail prices. According to Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma's Energy Committee, the erratic dynamics in retail prices are driven by a need to ...

... from Rosstat recorded the return of gasoline prices within the inflation boundaries. The annual increase in gasoline prices as of May 2024 was 8.0%, while inflation reached 8.2%. However, by the end of June, an acceleration in the annual growth rate of retail fuel prices is likely to be recorded. This is evidenced by weekly data from Rosstat: while gasoline prices rose by 0.1% in the week ending May 20, 2024, they increased by 0.3% in the week ending June 3, 2024, and by 0.4% in the week ending June 24, 2024....

... and July. After news of the upcoming embargo emerged in late July, exchange prices indeed stopped rising: by July 25, the price of AI-92 gasoline decreased by about 1.5%, while AI-95 dropped by 1.1%, anticipating the introduction of the ban. However, retail fuel prices continued to creep upward: according to Rosstat, during the last week of July, gasoline at gas stations rose by another 0.3% (with a year-to-date increase of ~4.6%, slightly above overall inflation of ~4.5%). As of July 31, exchange prices for ...