....S. Will Not Lift Sanctions Against Russia Until a Peace Agreement is Reached News: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed European allies that sanctions against Russia will remain in place at least until a peace agreement is reached regarding Ukraine. Analysis: Such a statement confirms Washington's firm stance regarding its sanctions policy. Despite the intensification of diplomatic contacts between Russia and the U.S., sanctions pressure will persist as a tool of political leverage. This ...

... investor sentiment and heightened expectations for increased demand for U.S. oil in the near future. Geopolitical Risk and Sanctions: U.S. President Donald Trump intensified rhetoric towards Moscow, shortening the deadline for resolving the conflict in Ukraine to 10-12 days. This effectively sounded like a ultimatum threatening new sanctions against Russia and buyers of its raw materials. This increased uncertainty regarding global supplies and added a risk premium to oil prices. OPEC+ Actions: Oil-producing ...

... Possible Disruptions 1. Reduction in Imports of Russian Pipeline Gas The reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe remains a critical theme in EU energy policy. Additionally, the expiration of a five-year transit agreement for Russian gas through Ukraine is anticipated by the end of 2024. Given the Ukrainian side's reluctance to extend the contract, the risk of ceasing remaining transit supplies through Ukraine in the near future becomes a tangible reality. This situation particularly affects ...

... was primarily driven by positive news regarding the trade agreement between the US and the European Union, as well as geopolitical factors. US President Donald Trump announced a reduction in the timeframe given to Russia for resolving the conflict in Ukraine to 10–12 days, threatening enhanced sanctions, which added uncertainty regarding future energy resource supplies from Russia. The US-EU Trade Deal Supported the Market: Washington and Brussels narrowly avoided a trade war by agreeing on mutual ...

... Primary Causes of Potential Supply Disruptions 1. Reduced Russian Pipeline Gas Imports A decrease in Russian gas supplies to Europe remains a major issue in the EU’s energy policy. At the end of 2024, a five-year agreement on Russian gas transit through Ukraine is set to expire. With Ukrainian authorities indicating reluctance to renew the agreement, the risk of halting the remaining transit supplies through Ukraine is real. This could significantly impact countries like Austria and Hungary, which are ...