... energy trade is undergoing a phase of transformation under the influence of sanctions, trade disputes, and strategic decisions by states. While oil, gas, and coal price dynamics continue to be largely driven by fundamental factors of supply and demand, political actions can quickly change the availability of certain energy carriers for entire regions. The fuel and energy complex industries are entering the second half of 2025 in a state of relative balance, but with clear signs of impending changes: ...

... at moderate levels. However, Gazprom's direct exposure to the European spot market diminished due to the decline in physical export volumes to Europe. Geopolitical factors and gas exports also set the tone for operational results. Sanctions and the political environment after 2022 led to conventional sales markets (Europe) being effectively closed: gas exports to the EU via pipelines fell to historical lows. For example, transit through Ukraine, which had been contracted until the end of 2024, virtually ...

... are emerging. In the Middle East, Turkey has commenced supplies of Azerbaijani natural gas to Syria – a notable development that diversifies energy supply in the region and partially fills the gas shortage in the Syrian market. Global Agreements and Politics: Trade De-escalation vs. Sanction Pressure On the international stage, two opposing trends continue to unfold. On one hand, there is de-escalation of trade conflicts between leading economies, and on the other, geopolitical confrontation is intensifying....

... could heighten recession fears. The culmination of the day will be the Federal Reserve's meeting: the decision will be announced at 21:00 MSK. The regulator is expected to keep the base rate unchanged (in the current range of ~5.25–5.5%), despite political pressure and calls for cuts. Investors will closely listen to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference (at 21:30 MSK) for signals regarding future policy – especially hints of a possible rate reduction in September ...