... direct shipments from refineries to oil depots and gas stations, bypassing the exchange. This leads to lower competition in the AI-98 distribution chain compared to AI-92, contributing to the accelerated price growth. According to analysts at OPEN OIL MARKET, the risks of price increases could be mitigated by boosting production of petroleum products. However, this is challenging due to sanctions on equipment supplies for refineries. As a result, by the end of 2024, the difference in price growth rates between AI-98 and AI-92 is expected to exceed twofold. Consequently,...

... – EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s official report on crude oil and petroleum product inventories often causes significant volatility in oil prices. Investors will closely watch for trends in supply and demand. 19:00 (MSK): Russia – Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November While focused on Russia, this data will be relevant for global commodity markets as it signals potential changes in monetary policy affecting inflation-sensitive industries. 00:30 (MSK): Brazil – Central ...

... the second half of the year. Many analysts maintain a cautious forecast, suggesting that by the end of the year, Brent quotes could drop closer to $60 per barrel amid cooling global economies. On the other hand, supply factors continue to support the market from deeper declines. OPEC+ countries are consistently complying with announced voluntary production constraints: Saudi Arabia has extended its additional cut of 1 million barrels per day through August, and Russia has confirmed a reduction in oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day. Thanks to these measures, global supplies remain relatively limited. Additional support for prices was also provided by temporary disruptions to Black Sea oil exports in July, as well as reports of partial easing ...

... of gasoline in the domestic market. In recent years, exports have accounted for 12-15 percent of supplies from Russian refineries. The problem is that this measure only works over a short period. In the long term, oil producers will adjust gasoline production to match domestic market demand, thereby reducing oil processing and freeing up raw materials for export. As noted by Sergey Frolov, managing partner of NEFT Research, for refineries, an export ban translates to decreased revenue, including in foreign currency. On the other hand, one should not dramatize ...

... and trade costs for Russian companies. Limiting physical export volumes (e.g., to no more than 3 million barrels per day) is impractical due to the real-time tracking required. As for Russian budget revenues, Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET platform, notes that falling oil prices won’t affect 2024 revenues due to the significant share of taxes derived from production rather than export. Taxes like the mineral extraction tax (MET) and additional income tax (AIT) play a key role. The budget has already received about 70% of expected AIT revenue, mitigating risks from price fluctuations. According to Dmitry ...