... Balance (October) (16:00 MSK) Data shows the difference between exports and imports. The trade balance plays a key role in ruble exchange rate dynamics. Eurozone: European Central Bank Rate Decision (16:15 MSK) A key event for the currency market and debt instruments. Expectations concern signals about continuing or changing the monetary policy course. US: Producer Price Index (November) (16:30 MSK) An inflation indicator at the producer level, foreshadowing possible changes in retail inflation. US: ...

... and deposits tend to grow, and demand increases for loans (mortgages, consumer credit) and financial services. Banks can benefit from both higher fee income and potentially lower credit risks – higher incomes make it easier for borrowers to repay debt. The shares of major Russian banks could thus show solid performance on this fundamental backdrop. However, when the Central Bank’s rates are extremely high, credit activity can slow temporarily. As monetary policy normalizes (projected by 2026–2027 ...

... Technological problems are compounded by the gradual depletion of the budget's safety cushion. The federal budget deficit for January-October 2024 was 220 billion rubles, and by the end of the year, it is expected to grow to 3.3 trillion rubles. With high debt market rates, almost all of this gap will need to be financed from the liquid portion of the National Wealth Fund (NWF), which by the end of the year will have less than 3 trillion rubles left. The "half-and-half" damper Therefore, ...

... Given these factors, market professionals advise against relying solely on one indicator. It is far more effective to form an opinion about the state of the market based on a comprehensive set of metrics – from profitability ratios (P/E, CAPE) to debt indicators, margins, interest rate dynamics, and more. Paying attention to the “mosaic” of data provides a more rounded picture, while any single metric, even one as authoritative as the Buffett Indicator, cannot capture all nuances. The Role ...

... forecasts. Hence, the expected growth in retail lending for 2025 has been reduced to only 1–4% (previously estimated at 1–6%). This means that the retail credit portfolio is unlikely to increase in real terms: citizens are hesitant to incur new debt due to high rates, coupled with banks tightening borrower requirements. The forecast for corporate lending growth in 2025 has been adjusted to 9–12% (previously 8–13%). Although companies are borrowing more actively than households, business ...