... higher. Any surprises in China's PMI (such as a move into the growth zone) will affect commodity markets and currencies of emerging countries. Eurozone – Unemployment Rate (12:00 MSK): The unemployment rate for the Eurozone in June will be announced. Forecasts converge around the mark of ~6.3%, which is close to multi-year lows (it was 6.3% in May). The European labor market remains resilient even amid economic slowdown, supporting consumption. If unemployment unexpectedly falls, it will bolster expectations regarding the Eurozone's economic resilience, although it may also intensify hawkish sentiments within the ECB. Conversely, any minor uptick in ...

... will learn what indicators the index consists of, how it is used by investors and economists, and also analyze a real case when the LEI helped predict the global financial crisis. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a comprehensive indicator used to forecast economic developments. The index combines several key statistics that are believed to predict future economic activity. For example, a rise or fall in the index can indicate whether economic growth is likely to accelerate or slow in the coming months....

... into the real economy – activities like starting small businesses or expanding existing ones – which indirectly improves the business climate. Some individuals may hedge a potentially weaker ruble by buying foreign currency or gold. However, if the economic forecast for Russia holds true and inflation slows, ruble-denominated assets (stocks, bonds, real estate) should in general outperform passive holdings in currency or precious metals. Fundamental analysis of the current scenario confirms the appeal of ...

... 16:45 (MSK): Eurozone – ECB Press Conference The ECB president will present updated forecasts and elaborate on the monetary policy decision. This commentary could significantly impact European bond markets and the euro. 17:45 (MSK): Eurozone – ECB Economic Forecasts Projections for inflation and economic growth will provide guidance on the Eurozone’s future trajectory, influencing investment strategies and market expectations. 18:30 (MSK): USA – Natural Gas Inventory Data The EIA report will shed light ...

By the end of 2024, the ruble to dollar exchange rate may be in the range of 93 to 100 rubles. In this answer, we reviewed key expert forecasts, including estimates from the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and SberCIB Investment Research, and explained the main factors influencing the exchange rate: oil prices, inflation, interest rates, and the geopolitical situation. A detailed analysis and commentary from Open Oil Market CEO Sergey ...