... of the ruble. What Factors Have Influenced Inflation Growth? Weakening of the Ruble The dollar exchange rate increased 3.4 times over 23 years, leading to higher costs for imported goods and components. Rising Raw Material and Energy Prices Domestic prices for oil, gas, and electricity have increased, impacting the cost of goods and services. Changes in Tax Policy The introduction and increase of excise taxes on fuel, tobacco, and alcohol have led to significant price increases for these goods. Global Economic Crises ...

... Retail prices are also rising, albeit nearly in line with inflation. The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) strictly monitors retail price increases, making it unlikely they will significantly exceed inflation. According to Rosstat, AI-92 gasoline prices have risen 5% since the beginning of the year, while AI-95 has increased by 5.2%. Inflation as of July 29 stood at 4.99%. Vertically Integrated Oil Companies (VIOCs), which control the entire supply chain from extraction to gas station sales, may prefer to offset wholesale losses rather than attract regulatory scrutiny. Seasonal Pressures Add to Market Strain August and September are traditionally challenging months for Russia’s fuel market. Gasoline consumption remains ...

... limit price increases for these grades. Additionally, trading liquidity for AI-98 on exchanges is significantly lower than for AI-92. As a result, the primary sales channel for AI-98 consists of direct shipments from refineries to oil depots and gas stations, bypassing the exchange. This leads to lower competition in the AI-98 distribution chain compared to AI-92, contributing to the accelerated price growth. According to analysts at OPEN OIL MARKET, the risks of price increases could be mitigated by boosting production of petroleum products. However, this is challenging due to sanctions on equipment supplies for refineries. As a result,...

... and diesel. Most gasoline in Russia is allocated for domestic use, with only about 15% exported, while around half of diesel is sent abroad. The ban was briefly lifted in May but reinstated in August after a price surge due to seasonal demand and oil price hikes. According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the “Reliable Partner” association and member of the "Russia's Gas Stations" contest advisory board, reopening gasoline exports is justified due to the end of peak demand season and Russian refineries' production capabilities. The government retains the option to reinstate the ban if prices rise. Gusev emphasizes ...

... seasonal demand during the vacation period and rising oil prices at that time. According to Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the supervisory board of the "Reliable Partner" association and a member of the expert council of the "Russian Gas Station" competition, the end of the high-demand season and the production capabilities of Russian refineries make reopening exports justifiable. If prices rise rapidly, the government retains the right to reimpose the ban. Current gasoline production volumes are being monitored, and they should be sufficient for both domestic consumption and export. Gusev emphasizes that the sole condition for ...