... Tereshkin's column for the publication "Neftyanka" In the article "In the summer, fuel price growth will outpace the general inflation rate – expert," Sergey Tereshkin, the CEO of the oil products and raw materials marketplace OPEN OIL MARKET, analyzes gasoline price dynamics in Russia. He notes that in May 2024, the annual growth in gasoline prices was 8.0%, which corresponds to an inflation rate of 8.2%. However, weekly data from Rosstat indicate an acceleration in price growth in June, which could lead to ...

... to rise from 13.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 13.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by high prices that sustain profitability for shale projects. Tereshkin notes that despite the increased supply, oil prices are expected to remain stable at around $80 per barrel until the end of 2024, with a potential price decline anticipated in early 2025. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the second quarter of 2024, the gap between ...

... direct shipments from refineries to oil depots and gas stations, bypassing the exchange. This leads to lower competition in the AI-98 distribution chain compared to AI-92, contributing to the accelerated price growth. According to analysts at OPEN OIL MARKET, the risks of price increases could be mitigated by boosting production of petroleum products. However, this is challenging due to sanctions on equipment supplies for refineries. As a result, by the end of 2024, the difference in price growth rates between AI-98 ...

... high right now." According to sources from Reuters, in January-May of this year, Russia increased gasoline exports by approximately 25% year-on-year, reaching 2.51 million tons. The ban is connected to the accelerated growth of automobile gasoline prices, agrees Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the oil products marketplace Open Oil Market. "During the summer, gasoline prices tend to rise rapidly, and regulators have to take action," he told Forbes. "The export ban should cool off prices on the exchange and at retail. Most likely, ...

... The second reason for the sharp rise in AI-95 exchange prices may be related to the rules for payments under the fuel damper program. The damper compensates part of the difference between the fuel's indicative price, set by the state, and its export price. It is paid from the budget to oil producers for wholesale supplies of fuel to the domestic market, with deviations from the indicative price (on average per month) of no more than 10% for gasoline and no more than 20% for diesel. For gasoline, only the price of AI-92 is considered ...