... agreement with the European Union, avoiding a tariff war: instead of threatening a 30% duty, a mutual base rate of 15% has been established, and the EU has committed to increasing investments in the U.S. as well as purchasing American energy. Earlier deals were reached with Japan and several other countries, and intensive negotiations with India continue (New Delhi aims to finalize a deal before August 1, when a pause before new U.S. tariffs ends). These moves alleviate concerns about a slowdown in ...

... country’s energy security and has no intention of sharply reducing it. Moreover, the Indian leadership has engaged in a form of trade bargaining: according to Reuters, India has expressed willingness to reduce the share of Russian supplies and conclude deals with other countries (including the US) only conditionally on comparable acceptable prices for energy resources being offered. Essentially, India has signaled that compensating for the cessation of cheap Russian oil without incurring economic losses ...

... disruptions or an early cold spell in the fall could once again heighten volatility. Global Agreements and Policy: Trade De-escalation and Sanction Pressures In international affairs, a significant recent development has been the U.S.-EU trade and energy deal, accompanying enhanced sanctions pressures on Russia. Washington and Brussels have crafted agreements aimed at preventing a new trade war: mutual understanding on tariff reductions and increased exports of energy resources from the U.S. to Europe ...

... $12 billion in the next. Such a high price for sanction loyalty forces Indian leadership to maintain cooperation with Moscow. In protest against external pressure, the Indian delegation even canceled a planned visit to Washington, where a large trade deal was supposed to be concluded. China, another key buyer of Russian oil, is also optimizing its import structure in response to new realities. According to analysts from Energy Aspects, Chinese refineries have significantly reduced the volume of oil ...

... total production quotas are officially raised by about 548,000 barrels per day (even more than originally planned); a similar increase is expected in September. Recently, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee confirmed its commitment to the deal and readiness to increase production to prevent shortages in the fall—these signals temper further price growth. As a result of the cumulative influence of these factors, the oil market remains relatively balanced. Brent has secured a range of ...