Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for August 11, 2025: Russia's Trade Balance, Deflation in China, Reports from Cisco, Deere, JD.com, Barrick Gold, Applied Materials, AMC, and Sberbank. Analysis and Expectations for Investors.
Monday kicks off a new week in the financial markets with several significant events. At the forefront are signals of potential deflation in China's economy and the release of Russian external trade data. This news is complemented by statistical reports from Europe, as well as the ongoing corporate earnings season, where several leading companies from the US, Asia, and Russia will present their results. These factors could influence investor sentiment at the start of the week and provide hints on what to pay particular attention to in the trading session.
Asian Markets: Deflation in China and a Holiday in Japan
- China: Fresh data indicates a risk of deflation in the world's second-largest economy. As of July, China's consumer price index showed no change year-on-year (0%), while producer prices declined—these figures, released over the weekend, underscore the weakness of domestic demand. On Monday, statistics regarding foreign direct investment are also expected; the dynamics of capital inflow will reflect global businesses' confidence in the Chinese economy amid slowing growth. An intensification of deflationary trends may unsettle global markets and heighten expectations for additional stimulus from Beijing.
- Japan: The Tokyo stock market is closed due to a national holiday (Mountain Day). The lack of trading in Japan means reduced activity in the Asian session; some investors will pause, and liquidity will be lower than usual. This may lead to more restrained fluctuations in Asian markets in the morning, as one of the region's key markets is temporarily inactive.
Europe: Inflation in Italy and Industrial Production in Turkey
- Italy: Final data will be released regarding the consumer price index for July, as well as trade balance statistics. Italian inflation will provide insights into price trends in the eurozone's third-largest economy. It is expected that price growth will slow compared to the beginning of the year, reflecting the impact of the ECB's tightening monetary policy. Confirmation of declining inflation would bolster confidence that the European regulator is gaining control over prices. Simultaneously, Italy's trade balance will reveal the state of exports and imports during the summer period: an improving balance will support the euro, whereas a deterioration may signal weakness in external demand.
- Turkey: Industrial production figures for June will be released. This indicator will help assess how Turkey's economy is faring after recent changes in economic policy and interest rate hikes by the central bank. A significant contraction in industrial output would indicate an economic slowdown amid tightening financial conditions. Conversely, resilient industrial production would signify that Turkish businesses are adapting to the new circumstances. Investors in the region are closely monitoring Turkish data, as Turkey is a major emerging market, and trends there may impact the overall risk appetite in the EM segment.
Russia: External Trade Balance and Sberbank Results
- 16:00 (MSK, Russia): The publication of Russia's external trade balance for June will be released. Previous months showed a reduction in the trade balance surplus compared to previous years, although it remains substantial. New figures will reflect the situation with exports and imports amid sanctions and price restrictions on raw materials. It is expected that Russia will maintain a trade surplus thanks to energy exports; however, its size may have decreased due to falling oil prices and reduced physical sales volumes. Investors will assess this data in the context of the stability of the ruble and budget revenues: a weaker export flow may increase pressure on the national currency and government finances, while a steady inflow of foreign currency earnings will support economic stability.
- Sberbank: Russia's largest bank will present its financial results for the first seven months of 2025 according to RAS. This interim report will reveal profit and lending dynamics at the country's largest credit and financial institution. Analysts forecast continued high profitability for Sberbank amid rising interest income and an active recovery in lending to individuals and businesses. Sberbank's results serve as a barometer for the entire Russian banking sector: an acceleration in net profit and loan portfolio growth will indicate a stable economy and consumer demand, while a slowdown might signal emerging risks. Investor reaction to Sberbank's report will set the tone for the Russian stock market, particularly in the financial segment.
Morning Corporate Reports: Deere, JD.com, Barrick
- Before market opens: This morning, quarterly results from several global companies will be announced. The American industrial giant Deere & Co (manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment) will report its quarterly figures—its metrics are traditionally viewed as indicators of demand in the agricultural sector and investment activity in infrastructure. Strong sales of Deere's equipment in the domestic US market and abroad would signal stable capital investment in the economy, while declining revenues could reflect caution among farmers and builders in the face of elevated rates. The Chinese e-commerce leader JD.com will present its financial results amid slowing economic growth in China. Investors will pay special attention to sales dynamics and the number of active users on JD.com: high growth rates will indicate continued purchasing activity among Chinese consumers, while weak results will heighten concerns over declining domestic demand in China. Additionally, one of the world's largest gold producers—Barrick Gold—will disclose its financial results. Its report will illustrate how the precious metals mining industry has maintained profitability amid fluctuating costs and uncertainty in the commodities market. A reduction in costs and stable output at Barrick may reassure investors in the commodities sector, while any signs of margin pressure could raise red flags across the mining segment.
Reports After Market Close: Cisco, Applied Materials, AMC
- After market close: In the evening, attention will shift to the US tech sector—several major companies will publish their reports after the main session concludes. One of Silicon Valley's key corporations, Cisco Systems, will unveil its quarterly results. As a leading global manufacturer of networking equipment and software solutions for corporate IT systems, its performance and forecasts will be perceived as a barometer of business spending on technology. Investors anticipate comments from Cisco's management about demand from corporate clients and telecom companies, as well as developments in cybersecurity and cloud services. Another important report of the day comes from Applied Materials, a major supplier of equipment for microchip production. The results from Applied Materials will clarify the situation in the semiconductor industry: an increase in orders for equipment would signal a new wave of investments among chipmakers (amid excitement about AI and high-performance chips), while a weak order book would indicate ongoing quiet following stockpiling. Moreover, AMC Entertainment—one of the world’s largest cinema chains, attracting heightened attention from retail investors—will report its financial results. Its performance will help assess the recovery of the entertainment industry: revenue growth amid a successful summer blockbuster season will strengthen belief in the return of audiences to theaters; however, losses or a sluggish flow of visitors could dampen investor enthusiasm for offline leisure stocks.
What Investors Should Focus On
This Monday, market sentiment is influenced simultaneously by macroeconomic and corporate factors from different parts of the globe. Morning news from China regarding effectively zero inflation may intensify concerns about global growth rates—signs of deflation in such a large economy typically cause investors to reduce risk. At the same time, the absence of trading in Japan may make the start of the day less volatile, allowing markets time to digest the stream of statistics. European data (both on Italian prices and Turkish industry) is unlikely to spark significant fluctuations on its own, but they complement the overall picture: the ongoing slowdown of inflation in Europe supports cautious optimism, while weakness in Turkey serves as a reminder of risks in emerging markets. For the Russian market, Sberbank's report will serve as an important benchmark—any surprises in profits or commentary could significantly impact financial sector stocks and the overall Moex index.
Corporate reporting on August 11 may set the tone for movements of individual stocks and sectors. Strong results from Deere or Cisco could bolster investor confidence, indicating stable demand in industry and technology—this may push relevant indices (S&P 500 and Nasdaq) upward. Conversely, disappointment from JD.com or conservative guidance from Cisco may alert the market: concerns over Chinese consumption or reductions in IT spending could trigger sell-offs in these segments. Overall, the combination of signals regarding possible deflation in Asia, regional economic indicators, and a broad array of corporate reports on Monday will shape investor sentiment at the week’s start. Many players may adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of Tuesday’s critical US inflation data, but unexpected corporate results or macroeconomic surprises on August 11 could instigate localized spikes in volatility and determine market direction in the coming days.
