Energy Sector News, Saturday, July 26, 2025: Brent Approaches $70, Record Gas Supplies, Market Reaction to Gasoline Export Ban
The latest review of the fuel and energy complex highlights key events and trends as of July 26, 2025. The global oil market shows cautious price growth — Brent crude oil is nearing $70 per barrel amid optimism in trade negotiations and coordinated actions by producers. European gas storage facilities continue to fill at record rates, reducing risks for the upcoming winter. In the domestic market of Russia, emergency measures are being implemented to stabilize prices for petroleum products: a complete ban on gasoline exports is being discussed and the causes of the fuel shortage are under investigation. Additionally, we will examine the situation in the coal industry, the rapid development of renewable energy (RES), changes in the electricity sector, and geopolitical factors reshaping the global trade in energy resources. This information will be valuable for investors and market participants — from oil and gas companies to electricity, coal, and RES specialists.
Oil Market: Price Growth Amid Trade Optimism and Supply Control
By the end of the week, oil prices maintain relative stability: Brent is hovering around $69–70 per barrel. The dynamics of the market are shaped by a balance between positive signals and restraining factors. On one hand, market participants are encouraged by progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and its partners. This week, Washington reached a trade agreement with Japan, and reports indicate a near deal with the European Union. Also, India expressed optimism about reaching agreements with the U.S. before August 1 — the date when new American tariffs could be imposed. This progress alleviates concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and supports demand for oil. According to ICE, Brent futures rose to ~$69.3 per barrel on Friday morning, continuing the upward trend from previous sessions.
On the other hand, factors remain that restrain price growth. The OPEC+ alliance is gradually increasing oil production after a period of restrictions. According to the IEA, production in Russia reached 9.19 million barrels per day in June, exceeding the established quota (9.05 million) by approximately 140,000 barrels. Similar quota exceedances have been recorded among other major producers — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait — while some members (such as Nigeria and Azerbaijan) remain below their limits. From April to July 2025, OPEC+ quotas were raised monthly by 411,000 barrels per day, and from August of the following year, quotas will increase by 548,000 barrels per day. Additionally, signals of potential supply growth from Venezuela have emerged: the largest American company received the right to resume production there, which could add over 200,000 barrels per day to the market in the future. The increase in supply, coupled with risks of a global economic slowdown, creates a "cooling" effect on prices: despite short-term attempts for Brent to exceed $70, the market reacts cautiously to the surplus of raw materials.
Additional support for oil prices is provided by data from the U.S. In the latest reporting week, commercial oil inventories in the U.S. decreased more than expected, indicating robust demand and preventing sharp price declines. At the same time, expectations of easing monetary policy in the largest economies also fuel investor interest in raw assets. As a result, by the end of the week, the oil market is in a state of relative equilibrium: Brent prices have stabilized at the higher end of the range for recent months, although they remain sensitive to any news regarding economic risks or changes in OPEC+ policy.
Gas Market: Record Filling of Storage Reduces Price Risks
The European natural gas market continues to build reserves ahead of the winter season. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, underground gas storage facilities in EU countries are nearly 66% full — an unprecedentedly high level for the end of July over recent years. In absolute terms, the storage volume exceeds 72 billion cubic meters (significantly less was accumulated a year ago on the same date). The rates of fuel injection are also record-breaking: in June alone, European companies injected about 12.4 billion cubic meters, marking the highest monthly volume in the past three years. This was facilitated by a mild winter, decreased demand, and high liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. In June, around 12 billion cubic meters of LNG arrived on the European market, mainly from the U.S., Qatar, and other exporters, which is also a record for a summer month.
Thanks to high reserves and diversification of supply, gas prices in Europe are relatively stable in summer 2025. Prices at the TTF hub are significantly lower than the peaks of 2022 and fluctuate within a consumer-friendly range. However, the current price level is still above pre-crisis average values. According to the IEA, wholesale gas prices in Europe in 2025–2026 will remain above $400 per 1,000 cubic meters due to structural market factors — distinctly higher than historical norms, yet substantially lower than the extremes of the crisis period. Overall, the record filling of gas storage facilities reduces the likelihood of sharp price spikes this winter, which is positively perceived by investors and industrial gas consumers. At the same time, market participants are closely monitoring further steps by the EU to strengthen energy security — including the introduction of new storage targets and potential restrictions on imports of Russian gas, which are being discussed at the political level.
Fuel Market in Russia: Stabilization Measures and Price Reaction
The domestic market for petroleum products in Russia is currently experiencing a tense situation due to rising gasoline and diesel prices. In July, exchange prices for automobile gasoline at the Saint Petersburg International Commodity Exchange reached historical highs (the AI-95 grade exceeded 75,000 rubles/ton), creating additional pressure on independent gas stations and consumers. The causes are a combination of seasonal factors — high summer demand (including from agricultural producers and tourists) — and supply constraints. Several oil refineries paused operations for scheduled repairs in June and July, reducing gasoline and diesel production. Moreover, some major players, as identified by the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS), reduced sales volumes on the exchange: FAS initiated a case against a subsidiary of Gazprom for cutting AI-92 gasoline sales by 74% and AI-95 by 50% in late spring, which could have provoked the shortage on the exchange and price increases.
The government, in collaboration with oil companies, is rapidly developing a comprehensive set of measures intended to stabilize the situation. The main discussed measure is a complete ban on gasoline exports for all producers, which is slated to be implemented from August 1, 2025, for at least one month. Previously, a partial embargo on gasoline exports for independent traders had been in effect since March, but now restrictions may extend to the entire market to redirect additional fuel volumes for domestic needs. Simultaneously, market oversight is intensifying, and a damping mechanism is being implemented to restrict excess profits from exports: if prices exceed a certain threshold, payments to oil companies will be reduced. An increase in the mandatory sales norms for fuel on the exchange is also being considered (currently set at 15% of production for gasoline) — this will enhance liquidity in trades and saturate the market with supply.
In August, the rate of growth in retail prices will slow down somewhat — oilmen will hold prices to expedite the lifting of the export ban. However, the restrictions will likely remain in place into September — a repeal is not expected until closer to the cold season when fuel demand begins to decline.
— Sergey Tereshkin, comment for RBC
The market has already reacted to the announced interventions: in the second half of July, wholesale prices ceased to rise. As of July 25, the price of AI-92 gasoline decreased by approximately 1.5% (to ~65,300 rubles/ton), and AI-95 decreased by 1.1% (to ~75,400 rubles/ton) in anticipation of the export ban implementation. Although prices remain close to record highs, a trend toward stabilization has emerged due to signals of governmental intervention. Diesel fuel, which has experienced less shortage, has barely increased in price. Experts note that the future price trajectory will depend on the duration of the export restrictions and the success of other measures. It is likely that administrative methods will help contain fuel price growth in August–September. However, if the ban is lifted in the fall, a new wave of price increases may occur if root causes such as limited gasoline supplies and ongoing repairs at refineries are not addressed. The government will need to balance the necessity of containing consumer prices with incentives for oil companies to avoid fuel shortages during the harvest season and the beginning of the fall period.
Coal Industry: Record Production Amid Moderate Demand
The global coal sector is reaching a new peak in production in 2025, although the pace of consumption growth is slowing. According to the latest IEA forecast, global coal production this year may reach around 9.2 billion tons — a historic maximum. The primary contribution to the increase comes from China, where raising domestic coal production remains part of the energy security strategy. Concurrently, many countries are announcing plans to gradually phase out coal in their energy mix, thereby increasing demand at a much slower rate than production growth. In Russia, coal still holds a substantial share in electricity generation and exports: production by Russian companies remains close to record levels, and amidst sanctions, the coal industry is actively redirecting towards Asian markets. The government supports exporters by developing port infrastructure in the Far East and subsidizing rail transportation to boost supplies to the Asia-Pacific region. Looking ahead – despite the continuing significant role of coal – the sector must modernize and enhance its eco-friendliness, considering the global trend toward reducing carbon emissions. In the medium and long term, coal companies will increasingly face challenges from the "green" transition, although in the coming years, coal will remain in demand to ensure base energy supply in several countries.
Renewable Energy: Accelerated Growth of Capacities and Environmental Impact
Renewable energy sources (RES) continue to rapidly gain momentum both globally and in Russia. According to the Renewable Energy Development Association (RED) data, over the past year, Russian solar and wind power plants have prevented about 8 million tons of CO2 emissions. Although the share of RES-based generation in Russia's energy mix remains small (a few percent), it is growing quickly. In 2025 alone, new wind farms and solar plants are being commissioned — a large number of projects have been implemented in southern regions and the Far East. Pilot initiatives are also being launched for small hydropower plants and biofuels.
Global trends are demonstrating record growth rates in "green" energy. The largest investor in this field remains China: in the first five months of 2025, approximately 46 GW of new wind generating capacity and about 200 GW of solar capacity were installed in China — an unprecedented scale. As a result, over 90% of all new energy capacities commissioned in China this year have been derived from clean sources. At the same time, to ensure base load, China continues to construct modern coal power plants, although the share of coal in the overall generation is gradually decreasing there. In Western countries, renewable energy is now almost replacing coal: the variable nature of solar and wind generation is compensated by gas power plants and energy storage systems. All of this signals the arrival of a global turning point in energy. Investments are increasingly shifting towards RES, while carbon-intensive industries must adapt to new realities. For energy sector investors, the green trend opens opportunities — from developing solar and wind power projects to modernizing grid infrastructure and energy storage systems.
Electricity Sector: Decreased Generation and Increased Tariffs
In the electricity sector of Russia, the first half of 2025 has recorded a slight decrease in electricity generation compared to the previous year. According to Rosstat, total electricity production for six months amounted to approximately 600 billion kWh, which is 1.9% less than the previous year. The primary contributor to the decline has been hydropower generation due to a low-water year: generation at hydroelectric power stations fell by almost 12%, to 98 billion kWh. This decline has been partially offset by thermal power plants (TPP), which increased production by 0.5% (to 394 billion kWh). Nuclear power plants (NPP) produced about 104 billion kWh from January to June, which almost corresponds to last year’s level (-0.3%). Thus, the structure of generation has shifted towards an increased share of thermal energy and nuclear energy, while the contribution of hydropower has decreased due to natural conditions.
Another important event for the sector has been the change in electricity tariffs in Russia. Since July 1, 2025, a planned price indexation for households and businesses has been conducted: average electricity and utility tariffs increased by 11–12% nationwide. This annual increase, mandated by the government, is intended to help energy companies offset inflationary costs and invest in maintaining infrastructure. However, the increase in payments inevitably raises the burden on businesses and households. In response, authorities have announced support measures: targeted subsidies will be introduced for low-income populations to mitigate the effects of tariff increases. Regulators have also emphasized that the rate of tariff growth will decrease in the coming years (for instance, around +9% in July 2026). For investors in the electricity sector, tariff increases indicate potential revenue growth for power supply and generation companies, although the government carefully monitors to ensure that tariff policy does not accelerate overall inflation or hinder economic growth.
Geopolitics and Energy Resource Trade: Restructuring Global Flows
Geopolitical factors continue to exert significant influence on global energy resource trade, prompting a reallocation of oil, gas, and coal flows between regions. A notable event is the sharp reduction in energy trade between the U.S. and China amid escalating relations. In June 2025, China did not purchase oil, LNG, or coal from the U.S. for the first time in nearly three years, as reported by Bloomberg. Experts attribute this to rising trade tensions and Beijing’s drive to diversify supply sources. China is increasing its oil imports from Middle Eastern and African countries, as well as ramping up purchases of Russian crude, taking advantage of price discounts on Urals. A similar pattern is evident in natural gas: significant volumes of LNG are being sourced by China from Qatar, Australia, and the spot market, bypassing American gas.
Concurrently, Europe continues its course to reduce dependence on Russian energy resources. Imports of Russian oil and petroleum products into the EU have virtually ceased due to the existing embargo, while pipeline gas deliveries have been lowered to minimal volumes. The European Union is actively developing infrastructure for receiving LNG (new terminals are being built, and long-term contracts with alternative suppliers are being signed) to replace the volumes lost. However, fully abandoning Russian gas in the short term is challenging for Europe: certain countries, such as Hungary, are still significantly dependent on Gazprom gas due to previously concluded contracts. Political disagreements within the EU are evident in statements from leaders of these countries — for example, Hungary has indicated that should a ban on Russian gas at the EU level be imposed, it will seek its own solutions directly with Moscow. Such signals highlight the limitations of a unified position within the bloc regarding energy security.
Overall, we are witnessing a transformation of global energy trade influenced by sanctions, trade disputes, and strategic decisions by states. Although the current pricing dynamics for oil, gas, and coal are largely determined by fundamental supply and demand factors, political decisions can swiftly change the availability of specific energy carriers for entire regions. As the energy sector enters the second half of 2025, it finds itself in a state of relative balance but with clear signals of future changes. The oil market remains relatively stable due to coordination among producers, although it remains sensitive to economic risks. The European gas market approaches winter with record reserves, alleviating concerns of sharp price surges. In Russia, heightened state regulation of the fuel market is underway — likely, such "manual control" measures will become the norm in the near future to prevent crises. Meanwhile, the global energy transition continues: renewable energy is achieving record growth, while the coal industry peaks before an expected decline. For investors and companies, this means the need to adapt to new realities: flexibly react to market changes and seek opportunities in rapidly growing sectors while remaining vigilant amidst a combination of market and geopolitical factors.
