Energy Market News – Tuesday, July 29, 2025: Brent Around $70 Amid US-EU Deal, European Gas Stocks Increase, Fuel Export Ban in Russia

At the beginning of the week, the global fuel and energy sector is showing signs of stabilization and cautious optimism. Brent crude prices have stabilized around $70 per barrel following a significant trade agreement between the US and the EU, while the European gas market is receiving support from accelerated injections into storage. Meanwhile, authorities and producers are taking steps to balance the markets: OPEC+ is increasing production, and Russia has temporarily restricted gasoline exports to control domestic prices. Below is a detailed overview of key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and other segments of the energy market as of July 29, 2025.

Oil Market: Price Increases and Influencing Factors

Oil started the week with a confident rise. The North Sea Brent crude oil prices approached the mark of $70 per barrel – the highest levels in the past one and a half weeks. American WTI is trading around $66. The increase in prices was primarily driven by positive news regarding the trade agreement between the US and the European Union, as well as geopolitical factors. US President Donald Trump announced a reduction in the timeframe given to Russia for resolving the conflict in Ukraine to 10–12 days, threatening enhanced sanctions, which added uncertainty regarding future energy resource supplies from Russia.

• The US-EU Trade Deal Supported the Market: Washington and Brussels narrowly avoided a trade war by agreeing on mutual tariffs and large-scale purchases of American energy resources by the European Union. This news improved investor sentiment and intensified expectations for increased demand for US oil in the future.
• Geopolitical Premium in Prices: Trump's ultimatum to Moscow (essentially threatening new sanctions within the next two weeks if progress on peace is not made) raises the risk of disruptions in global oil supply, which also supports prices.
• OPEC+ Actions and Supply: OPEC+ countries continue to gradually increase production. An increase of about 548,000 barrels per day in quotas is expected in August (above original plans), with a similar rise likely in September. Recently, the OPEC+ monitoring committee reaffirmed its commitment to implementing agreements and hinted at a readiness to add production to prevent shortages in the autumn market. These additional volumes somewhat limit price increases.

As a result of the combined influences, the oil market displays relative equilibrium. Brent is holding around $68–70 per barrel, gaining upward momentum, but further increases are restrained by expectations of increased supply. Despite the recent rally, current oil prices are still 10–15% lower than the levels from a year ago, reflecting the overall market correction following the peaks of the 2022–2023 energy crisis. Investors are closely monitoring US-China tariff negotiations and upcoming OPEC+ decisions, which will largely determine the price movement of oil in the coming weeks.

Gas Market: Rising Stocks, High Prices

The gas market is primarily focused on Europe. The European Union continues to rapidly inject natural gas into underground storage, aiming to prepare for the upcoming winter. As of the end of July, European gas storage facilities are more than two-thirds (around 70% capacity) full – up from about 59% a month ago. Total stocks have exceeded 70 billion cubic meters and are gradually approaching the target of 90% by the start of the heating season. In June, the injection rate broke last year’s records (around 12.4 billion cubic meters for the month), and in July, active growth continued, which allowed for a reduction in the deficit compared to last year's storage levels.

Gas prices, meanwhile, remain at elevated levels. The Dutch TTF index fluctuates at around $400–420 per thousand cubic meters – roughly in line with the same period last year. Summer heat and the need to fill storage facilities are maintaining gas demand despite relatively limited pipeline supplies from Russia. Experts note that European companies will have to inject significantly more gas into storage than last year, considering increased consumption last winter and the complete cessation of transit through Ukraine since the beginning of the year. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum and analysts warn that competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the global market may intensify, and summer exchange prices in Europe could exceed winter prices if filling storage proves challenging.

The situation is alleviated by the fact that LNG supplies are currently meeting European demand. The United States is breaking its own records for LNG exports: in July, gas delivery to American LNG plants reached a historical high of over 450 million cubic meters per day. However, total LNG supplies to the EU slightly decreased in early July compared to June (around 370 million cubic meters per day vs. 404 million cubic meters per day previously) as some shipments were redirected to Asia. Nonetheless, key importers – both major European countries and Turkey – continue to receive significant volumes of LNG from the US, Qatar, and other sources. Norway, remaining the largest supplier of pipeline gas to the EU, also maintains high export levels (over 300 million cubic meters per day at the end of June), although periodic technical disruptions at fields (e.g., maintenance at the "Nihamna" plant) sometimes limit the flow. Russian pipeline gas through the southern route (via Turkey and the Balkans) remains at moderate levels (~50 million cubic meters per day).

Asian gas markets are also experiencing the impact of extreme heat. In certain East Asian countries, record temperature peaks this summer have heightened demand for LNG for power generation. However, many Asian buyers are reluctant to pay the current high spot prices – instead, some are switching to coal for generation. This factor somewhat eases Europe’s task in attracting sufficient LNG volumes: competition for spot parcels between regions remains restrained for now. Overall, the gas market is balancing between Europe’s desire to replenish stocks and the limited ability to ramp up global export supplies. Market participants will closely watch demand dynamics in Asia, the progress of injections into EU storage facilities, and potential weather risks in the remaining summer months.

Global Agreements and Politics: US-EU Deal and Pressure on Russia

Over the weekend, one of the largest trade agreements in recent years was reached, directly impacting the energy sector. The United States and the European Union have entered into a historic agreement under which Europe will significantly increase its purchases of American energy resources in exchange for reduced trade tariffs. Under the terms of the deal, the EU will annually buy oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and even nuclear fuel from the US – the total volume of contracts is estimated at an enormous $750 billion over the coming years. The main goal is to fully replace oil and gas supplies from Russia with American imports by the end of 2027, thereby ensuring Europe’s energy independence from Russia.

• All EU countries have agreed to open their markets to the US and establish a unified customs tariff of 15% on most goods. This decision allowed for the avoidance of a trade war – earlier, Washington threatened to increase tariffs on European cars to 30% from August 1.
• Special conditions have been introduced for energy resources: European purchases of American LNG, oil, and nuclear fuel are set to increase unprecedentedly. It is anticipated that the US will become Europe’s main supplier of gas and petroleum products in the coming years, completely displacing Russian resources. For American oil and gas companies, this means stable demand: shares of major LNG producers (Cheniere, Venture Global, etc.) rose by 7–9% in light of the news.
• The EU, for its part, in addition to importing energy resources, has agreed to invest $600 billion in the US economy – the funds will go towards infrastructure development, green technologies, and more. Thus, the deal is mutually beneficial: Europe receives guarantees of energy security and predictability, while the US gains market expansion and investment influx.

Leaders on both sides of the Atlantic have positively assessed the agreement. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that this pact would bring the much-needed stability and predictability for businesses in the EU and the US. The Chancellor of Germany welcomed the reduction of American tariffs, noting that the deal helped avoid escalation in trade relations. President Trump called the agreement one of the largest in history and an important victory for the American energy sector.

In addition to the deal with the EU, the US is pursuing an active external energy policy. In recent weeks, Washington has also concluded trade agreements with several Asian countries (Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines) and is seeking an extension of the tariff truce with China while limiting oil imports from Russia and Iran. All these initiatives aim to reshape global energy supply chains, strengthen the positions of American exporters, and further weaken Russia’s role in the global market. Together, geopolitical factors and new agreements are creating a clearer long-term picture for investors: transatlantic energy cooperation is strengthening, while risks for those continuing to depend on Russian oil and gas are increasing.

Moscow, for its part, is under growing pressure. Trump’s ultimatum regarding Ukraine – the demand for peace within days – if not met, threatens new harsh sanctions. This could also affect the remaining export of Russian energy resources: further restrictions on oil, petroleum products, or gas supplies from Russia to global markets are possible. Thus, political decisions in the coming weeks could significantly reshape global energy trade routes. Participants in the energy market are closely monitoring statements from leaders and preparing for any developments.

Electricity and Renewables: Generation and Load Records

Summer weather anomalies are bringing the condition of electrical networks and the role of renewable energy sources (RES) to the forefront. In China in mid-July, a record load on the energy system was recorded: total electricity consumption reached an unprecedented 1.5 billion kilowatts (1.5 TW) during peak hours. This figure is a historic maximum for the country, driven by extreme heat affecting over 200 million people in southwestern and eastern China. Local temperatures felt like +50°C at times, which forced air conditioners to work at maximum capacity. So far, China’s energy system has withstood the load, although analysts are warning of the risk of rolling blackouts if the heat persists. Interestingly, around half of the increase in electricity generation in China in June was provided by solar energy, while hydropower plants also increased generation compared to last year – this helped partially offset increased consumption.

Europe is also facing heat and drought, which has led to increased electricity demand for air conditioning. Estimates show that the July heat is raising daily energy consumption in certain European countries by 10–15% compared to average levels. At the same time, several thermal power plants faced difficulties due to overheating water for cooling and other weather factors, but systemic outages have been avoided. Energy companies and network operators have implemented a state of heightened readiness to cope with peak loads. Meanwhile, the share of RES in Europe’s energy mix continues to grow: wind and solar power plants are breaking generation records this summer in Germany, Spain, and several other countries, helping to cover the rising demand without increasing gas or coal combustion.

The US is demonstrating an impressive shift in its electricity balance in favor of clean sources. According to the EIA, in the first quarter of 2025, total electricity generation from wind and solar reached about 19% of total output – for the first time surpassing that from coal-fired and nuclear power stations. In March 2025, the combined share of wind and solar surged to nearly 24%, while both coal and nuclear provided less than 20%. In total, all renewable sources (including hydro, biomass, etc.) accounted for about 26% of US electricity in the first quarter and a record 32% in March. Although natural gas remains the largest source of generation in America (around 35%), the gap is rapidly closing. Growing investments in RES – both at the federal level and in individual states – are leading to accelerated commissioning of new capacities: another ~7–8 GW of wind farms is expected to come online in 2025, with major projects also being realized in solar energy. Thus, the energy transition trend is gaining momentum: clean energy is setting new records and reclaiming market share from fossil fuels.

The overall trend worldwide is a steady increase in investments in electricity generation and networks. According to the International Energy Agency, global capital investments in energy are projected to reach a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, with about two-thirds of this amount going to clean technologies (renewable energy, grids, energy storage, nuclear generation). This is double the investments in traditional hydrocarbon projects. Such priorities reflect the desire of many countries to strengthen energy security while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions. For investors, this means expanded opportunities in the RES and electricity network segments, and for consumers – more stable tariffs and environmentally friendly energy sources in the long term.

Coal Sector: High Demand and Stable Prices

Despite the global focus on decarbonization, coal remains a significant player in the energy balance of many countries. The International Energy Agency forecasts that global coal demand in 2025 will remain near historical highs and may even hit a new record. World coal production is expected to reach ~9.2 billion tons this year – largely supported by rising consumption in Asia. In India and several Southeast Asian countries, coal-fired power generation continues to expand to meet the growing demand for electricity. China, being the largest coal consumer, is likely to keep its consumption around last year’s levels or slightly reduce it (by less than 1% according to IEA forecasts), but this slight decline will be offset by increases in other regions.

In Europe, coal usage, on the contrary, is declining compared to the peak levels of 2022. Thanks to stable gas supplies and record renewable energy output, European countries have managed to reduce coal-fired generation, particularly in Germany and Eastern Europe, where coal temporarily filled the gas supply gap last year. In 2025, after filling gas storage and launching new RES capacities, the share of coal in the EU energy system is falling back. Nevertheless, coal remains a significant part of the energy balance in Poland, the Czech Republic, Greece, and some other economies.

Coal prices in the global market have shown moderate stability in recent months. Futures for energy coal (API2) are trading in the range of $110–120 per ton in Northwest European ports by the end of July. This is slightly higher than levels at the beginning of summer (prices have risen about 5–7% over the past month) but still noticeably lower than prices a year ago (in the height of the crisis in summer 2024, coal was 15–20% more expensive). This price dynamic reflects a balance: on the one hand, persistent high global demand (especially during hot seasons, when coal is used to meet peak loads), and on the other, sufficient supply in the market and accumulated stocks. Major exporters such as Australia, Indonesia, and South Africa have increased production, and currently, coal supply meets demand without shortages.

Notably, even in the face of high gas prices, European consumers are not rushing back to coal: the introduced charge for CO₂ emissions and environmental policies make coal generation less attractive unless sharp necessity arises. In Asia, as previously noted, some countries are temporarily increasing coal combustion in an attempt to avoid expensive LNG. As a result, global coal consumption is holding steady at a "plateau." A gradual decline in global coal demand is expected to begin in 2026 if the transition to clean energy continues to accelerate and China’s economy shifts towards gas and RES. However, currently, the coal sector maintains near-record levels, providing a significant part of electricity generation worldwide.

Petroleum Products and Refining: Regional Contrasts

The petroleum products market is developing differently across regions. In Russia, authorities have taken an unprecedented step to stabilize gasoline prices domestically. On July 28, the Russian government officially announced a temporary complete ban on gasoline exports by all companies (including petroleum product producers) until August 31, 2025. This emergency measure aims to prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market and contain further price increases during the peak demand season (summer farming activities, vacation transportation). Last week, the Russian government had already warned refineries about the potential imposition of a ban, giving them a week to decrease stock prices. However, wholesale gasoline prices continued to reach new highs, prompting authorities to implement administrative export restrictions.

This step means that Russian refineries will direct nearly all produced gasoline volumes to the domestic market in the coming month. It is expected to increase supply in the market and cool fuel prices, which reached record levels in July. Domestic gasoline demand in Russia is currently high, and traditional export markets (CIS countries, Asia) will temporarily not receive Russian gasoline, except for shipments under previously concluded intergovernmental agreements within the Eurasian Union. Experts believe that this ban is temporary: by autumn, with the end of seasonal work, the situation is expected to normalize, and exports will return to the usual mode. Nevertheless, for the global petroleum product market, this is a signal: even one of the largest exporters is willing to limit external sales to keep domestic prices under control, highlighting local imbalances in different parts of the world.

In the US, the picture is opposite – the fuel market is experiencing a period of relative abundance. Thanks to high oil processing rates at American refineries and atypically soft demand this summer, domestic gasoline prices in the US have declined to multi-year lows. The national average gasoline price after Independence Day dropped to about $3.14 per gallon (around $0.83 per liter) – the lowest level for the summer season in the past four years. Analysts do not rule out that in August-September the national average price could break the psychological mark of $3/gallon, which hasn’t happened since spring 2021.

The reasons for the decline in fuel prices in the US are complex. First, demand turned out to be slightly weaker than expected: data showed that gasoline consumption in early July was 1–2% lower than a year earlier. Abnormal heat in the southern US partially deterred drivers from long trips, while lifestyle changes (remote work, thrift) are reducing mileage. Second, gasoline supply has increased: American refineries are operating at high utilization rates, and additionally, fuel imports from Europe and Canada have surged to the east coast. In June, the US imported about 100,000 barrels of gasoline per day – a maximum in more than a year. Petroleum product inventories are filling up, and wholesale gasoline prices have decreased, which is also reflected in retail prices. Third, the decrease in oil prices in the first half of the year (WTI is 20% lower than a year ago) has reduced processing costs, allowing refiners to partially pass this benefit on to consumers.

It is worth noting that the decline in American fuel prices is occurring against the backdrop of an improving refining picture. Spring maintenance at refineries has been completed, and gasoline and diesel output is at seasonally high levels. An additional factor has been OPEC+’s policy: the cartel's increase in oil production in August enhances commodity availability and exerts downward pressure on global prices, which also indirectly contributes to lower gasoline prices. Thus, the American petroleum products market is currently experiencing a period favorable for consumers: supply is exceeding demand, and prices are gradually decreasing.

In Europe, the pricing situation for motor fuel is more neutral. After the turbulence of 2022–2023, when sanctions and logistics restructuring led to price spikes, the European gasoline and diesel market stabilized in 2025. Wholesale gasoline quotes are now close to the levels at the beginning of the year and significantly lower than last year: this is aided by relatively inexpensive oil ($70 compared to over $100 a year ago) and the redirection of petroleum product imports (the EU has established diesel supplies from the Middle East, Asia, and the US instead of Russian sources). Gas stations in the EU are gradually lowering prices for end consumers as more expensive stocks purchased last winter are replaced with cheaper batches. Nevertheless, high taxes and levies in Europe keep gasoline expensive for the populace (in major EU economies, prices are maintained in the range of €1.6–1.8 per liter).

Overall, the global petroleum products market is characterized by the absence of sharp shortages, though regional differences exist. Asian countries (e.g., Pakistan, Bangladesh, several African states) are facing difficulties due to the high cost of imported fuel – many developing economies are forced to subsidize gasoline prices to avoid social unrest. Meanwhile, in the Middle East and India, record levels of oil refining at refineries oriented towards exporting diesel and jet fuel are helping to saturate the global market. On the other hand, structural changes – such as the closure of several old refineries in Western Europe and the US (for example, the planned conservation of some facilities in California) – are creating risks of local supply reductions in the future. For now, however, the summer season of 2025 is proceeding relatively calmly: fuel prices are either declining or stabilizing, and consumers are generally assured of gasoline and diesel supplies without interruptions.

Outlook: What to Watch For

Several factors remain on the horizon that could impact energy market dynamics in the near term:

• OPEC+ Decisions: The market awaits official confirmation of OPEC+ production plans for September and beyond. If the cartel continues to increase supply, oil prices may remain in the range of $65–70, but an unexpected pause in quota increases could push Brent upwards again.
• Gas Storage Filling: For Europe, it is critically important to achieve the target of 90% gas storage capacity by autumn. Any delays in the schedule or new technical supply restrictions (e.g., unscheduled maintenance in Norway) could trigger a spike in gas prices at the end of summer. Conversely, ahead-of-schedule stock accumulation will pressure prices downward.
• Weather Factor: The continuation of abnormal heat or, conversely, hurricanes and floods (especially in the US and Asia) could impact both energy demand and infrastructure. Investors are monitoring forecasts: temperature extremes may lead to actual energy supply disruptions or changes in fuel consumption.
• Geopolitics and Sanctions: The deadline for the US ultimatum to Russia is set for the second decade of August. In the event of new sanctions imposed on Moscow, there could be price volatility for oil and gas, especially if restrictions affect energy resource exports. Additionally, US-China trade negotiations are in focus: extending the tariff truce would reduce risk for the global economy, which would also positively affect energy demand.
• Financial Markets and Economics: Data on the state of the global economy (inflation, interest rates, industrial growth) will influence commodity markets. If large economies show signs of slowdown, this could cool oil prices and reduce fuel consumption. For now, forecasts indicate moderate growth in demand for oil (~2% per year) and gas by the end of 2025.

In summary, the fuel and energy complex is entering the second half of summer relatively steadily. Oil is holding at comfortable levels for producers without imposing critical pressure on consumers. Gas remains expensive, but on a manageable market due to coordinated actions regarding storage replenishment. Electricity is coping with peak loads, largely thanks to the growth in the share of RES. Coal and petroleum products occupy their niches, avoiding shocks for the global economy. Significant months lie ahead for preparations for winter and ongoing trade negotiations. Energy market participants will closely monitor supply and demand balances to respond promptly to new challenges and opportunities.