Economic News September 3, 2025 — PMI, CPI, EEF 2025 and Corporate Reporting

Current Economic News as of September 3, 2025: Global Services PMI, Inflation in Turkey and Russia, GDP of Australia, ECB President Lagarde's Speech, Publication of the Fed's Beige Book, the Start of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, and Reports from Major Public Companies.

Wednesday presents a packed agenda for the markets: in Asia, attention will focus on the PMI business activity indices (Australia, China, Japan, India) and GDP data for Australia, while in Europe, the final services PMI figures and ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech will be in the spotlight. In emerging markets, inflation in Turkey (August) amid tightening by the central bank will be a key focus, along with the fresh services PMI indices from Brazil and Russia. In the US, data on JOLTS job openings and industrial orders will be released in the afternoon, and later in the night investors will receive the Fed's economic overview "Beige Book." The Eastern Economic Forum begins in Russia, where statements regarding cooperation with Asian investors are expected against the backdrop of ruble volatility and high inflation. Collectively, these events will help investors assess the state of the global economy: trends in service sector growth, inflation trends, and central banks' responses — all of which will influence sentiments in stock markets, the dollar exchange rate, oil prices, and overall risk appetite.

Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)

1. 02:00 — Australia: services and composite business activity indices (August).
2. 03:30 — Japan: services and composite business activity indices (August).
3. 04:30 — Australia: GDP for Q2 2025 (quarterly and annual growth).
4. 04:45 — China: Caixin services and composite PMI index (August).
5. 08:00 — India: services and composite PMI index (August).
6. 09:00 — Russia: services and composite PMI index (August).
7. 10:30 — Eurozone: speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
8. 10:55 — Germany: services PMI index (final estimate for August).
9. 11:00 — Eurozone: composite PMI index and services PMI index (final estimates for August).
10. 11:00 — Australia: speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock.
11. 11:30 — United Kingdom: services and composite PMI indices (final estimates for August).
12. 12:00 — Eurozone: producer price index (PPI) for July.
13. 12:00 — Russia: announcement of the Bank of Russia's operations in the foreign exchange market for September.
14. 14:00 — Turkey: consumer inflation (CPI) for August.
15. 16:00 — Brazil: services and composite PMI indices (August).
16. 17:00 — United States: factory orders for July.
17. 17:00 — United States: JOLTS job openings (July).
18. 19:00 — Russia: consumer inflation (CPI) for August.
19. 21:00 — United States: Fed's economic overview "Beige Book."
20. 23:30 — United States: weekly oil inventory data from the API.

Asia: PMI and Economic Growth

The Asia-Pacific region sets the tone early in the morning. In China, the Caixin services PMI for August will be published: the previous month showed an acceleration to approximately 52–53 points, indicating a recovery in services following a downturn earlier in the year. Investors will watch for whether the growth momentum in Chinese services will continue, which is crucial for commodity markets and Asian stocks. In Japan, the final services PMI index is expected to hover around 52–53, confirming sustainable expansion in the sector despite a slight slowdown compared to July. India's services PMI is traditionally high; the probable figure is significantly above 50 points, reflecting robust demand for services and domestic consumption in one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

Special attention in the morning will be on Australia. Firstly, August's PMI data for Australia will reveal the state of the services sector and overall economic activity. Secondly, at 04:30 Moscow time, GDP data for Australia for the second quarter of 2025 will be released. A slowdown in growth is expected: estimates suggest that the Australian economy grew by about +0.4% quarter-on-quarter (around 1.3% year-on-year) in Q2, indicating subdued growth amid previous RBA rate hikes. Weaker-than-expected GDP figures could heighten expectations for an imminent easing of monetary policy, while stronger growth will support the Australian dollar. Overall, the morning data from Asia will serve as the first indicator of investor sentiment mid-week, influencing the trading session in the region and risk appetite.

Europe: PMI Indices and Lagarde's Speech

As midday approaches, focus will shift to Europe. The final values of the services PMI indices for August will be released in key eurozone economies. Preliminary estimates indicated moderate growth: the composite PMI for the eurozone remains slightly above 50 points, signaling stagnation or slight expansion in activity. In Germany and France, the services sector is slowing due to weak demand, while Spain and Italy still show growth. The final data will confirm how significantly the summer cooling of the economy impacted the services sector. In the UK, the corresponding services PMI index is forecast to remain around 50 points, balancing between stagnation and weak growth amid high interest rates and declining consumer activity.

An additional signal for European markets will be provided by ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech at 10:30 Moscow time. The head of the European Central Bank will speak at a scheduled event, and investors will look for hints in her remarks regarding the regulator's future policy. The ECB will hold a meeting in mid-September, with markets attempting to gauge whether the bank will implement another rate hike or pause. Any mentions by Lagarde regarding inflation outlooks in the eurozone (currently around 3%, above the 2% target) and the state of the economy could sway the euro and European stock indices. At 12:00 Moscow time, the PPI data for the eurozone for July will also be released. In the previous month, producer price inflation exited the negative territory and was around +0.6% year-on-year, thanks to stabilizing energy prices. The PPI dynamics will help assess future consumer inflation trends: an acceleration in producer price growth may indicate ongoing inflationary pressure in supply chains, while a decline in PPI would suggest relief for businesses and consumers.

Emerging Markets: Turkey and Brazil

Among emerging markets, Turkey is attracting particular interest, where consumer inflation for August will be released at 14:00 Moscow time. Following a prolonged period of declining inflation to around 34% year-on-year in July (a four-year low), Turkish prices may accelerate again due to the recent devaluation of the lira. Forecasts for August hover around 32–33% year-on-year, slightly below previous figures, indicating a gradual cooling of price pressure due to the tightening of monetary policy under the new leadership of Turkey’s central bank. However, inflation remains extremely high, and new data will be critical for forecasting further interest rate hikes in the country. Any surprises in the CPI (e.g., unexpected acceleration) could impact the Turkish financial market, including the lira's exchange rate and foreign investors' interest in Turkish assets.

In the afternoon, Brazil will also be in the spotlight. At 16:00 Moscow time, Brazil's services PMI for August will be published. In July, the Brazilian services PMI hovered around neutral 50 points, reflecting mixed trends in the largest economy in Latin America. If the new index shows growth above 50, this would signal a revival of business activity amid declining inflation and a gradual easing of the Central Bank of Brazil's policy. Strong data could support the Brazilian real and the local stock market. Conversely, weakness in the services sector may lend credence to the central bank and government’s cautious economic policy. In general, the PMI figures from Brazil and other emerging markets help to understand the global picture: how synchronously the services sector is recovering outside of developed economies.

Russia: Eastern Forum, Ruble, and Inflation

For the Russian economy, September 3 marks the beginning of a significant event — the X Eastern Economic Forum (EEF-2025) kicks off in Vladivostok. This international event, taking place from September 3–6, will gather business representatives and investors from the Asia-Pacific region. The forum's focus is on attracting investment to Russia's Far East, developing trade and economic ties with China, India, Southeast Asian countries, as well as discussing infrastructure projects and energy agreements. Official speeches are expected; likely, the President of Russia and heads of major companies will outline key economic priorities and possible measures to support the economy amid external constraints. Any statements regarding major deals, export agreements (such as in the oil and gas sectors), or initiatives for dedollarization may impact the stock prices of Russian companies and the ruble’s exchange rate.

Key domestic macroeconomic indicators will also be published on Wednesday. In the morning, the services PMI index for Russia for August will be released: in July it was 48.6, indicating a decline in activity for the second consecutive month due to declining demand and the effects of sanctions. If the August PMI remains below 50, it would confirm the continued cooling in the non-extraction sector; on the other hand, a return of the index above 50 points would signal unexpected signs of a revival. At 12:00 Moscow time, the Bank of Russia will announce its plans for operations in the foreign exchange market under the fiscal rule for September. This relates to planned volumes of foreign currency buying or selling for the Ministry of Finance. Amid the recent volatility of the ruble (with the USD/RUB exchange rate exceeding 95 in August), the market is closely watching whether authorities will refrain from purchasing currency (which weakens the ruble) or even proceed to sell to support the national currency. The regulator's decision will have an immediate impact on the ruble’s dynamics in the early days of autumn.

In the evening, at 19:00 Moscow time, inflation data for Russia for August will be announced. The year-on-year price growth rate in July slowed to 8.8% from peak levels of ~10% in spring; however, monthly inflation accelerated during the summer (0.6% for July compared to 0.2% in June) amid ruble depreciation and a revival in consumer demand. The August figure may show a further decline in year-on-year inflation to around 8–8.5% year-on-year due to base effects from last year. Nevertheless, inflation remains twice the Central Bank's target (4%). New figures will be critically important for assessing further actions by the Bank of Russia: the regulator cut the key rate to 18% per annum at the end of July after an emergency hike earlier, and further slowing of inflation could open the door for cautious easing of policy. However, rising inflation expectations among the population (reaching ~13.5% in August) and risks of budget stimulus may lead the Central Bank to maintain high rates longer. The reaction of the bond market and the ruble to the publication of the Russian CPI will depend on whether inflation meets or exceeds forecasts.

USA: Labor Market and Fed's Beige Book

American macroeconomic data will be released mainly in the afternoon Moscow time. At 17:00 Moscow time, investors will analyze the July JOLTS report on job openings in the US. The previous figure indicated about 7.7 million job openings, which, while below last year's peak, still exceeds pre-crisis levels. Forecasts suggest a further slight reduction in job openings (to ~7.5 million), reflecting a gradual cooling of the labor market. A decrease in job openings alongside stable hiring levels will indicate a weakening of the supply-demand imbalance in the labor force, which the Federal Reserve aims to achieve to contain inflation. Simultaneously, factory order data for July will be released: a slight decline is expected following significant growth in June, primarily due to the volatile aerospace orders sector. The Factory Orders data will help assess industrial demand trends: a decline in orders may indicate businesses' caution ahead of the fall season, while growth would be a sign of confidence among producers.

By the end of the day, at 21:00 Moscow time, the Fed will release its regional economic review, the "Beige Book." This document, compiled ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting (scheduled for September 16–17), summarizes the state of the US economy based on reports from 12 federal districts. The previous edition of the "Beige Book" noted moderate economic growth amid easing price pressures in several districts. The new version will show how the situation has developed by late summer: for example, whether there are signs of a slowdown in consumer spending, how the commercial real estate market is faring, and whether companies feel easing inflation in costs. Markets will pay particular attention to comments regarding the labor market — whether businesses have begun to cut hiring or if wage pressures are easing — as well as the lending industry amidst higher rates. Any signals of a looming recession or, conversely, sustained resilience in the economy could impact expectations regarding the Fed's decisions. Should signs of economic slowdown emerge, predictions may strengthen that the Fed will refrain from raising rates in September, which would be positive for stocks and bonds. If the report depicts the economy as still robust with sustained price growth, the market may price in additional policy tightening, amplifying treasury yields and pressuring the stock market.

In addition, the oil market will receive another assessment of crude oil and fuel inventories in the US from the API (American Petroleum Institute) at 23:30 Moscow time. Oil traders are monitoring inventory dynamics: recent weeks have shown a decline in US oil reserves due to high exports and gasoline demand during the vacation season. If the API report indicates a significant outflow of inventories from the previous week, this may support global oil prices. Currently, Brent is trading around $68 per barrel, remaining within recent months' ranges. Stable or growing inventories, on the other hand, could slightly diminish the price momentum. The official EIA data on oil will be released on Thursday, but even the preliminary estimate from the API could set the direction for oil prices by the end of the day.

Reporting: Before Market Open (BMO)

• NIO (NIO) — Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. In focus: revenue growth and volume of electric vehicle deliveries for the quarter, dynamics of gross margin amid price competition in China, cash burn rates, and prospects for reaching profitability.
• Signet Jewelers (SIG) — major jewelry retailer (Kay, Zales brands, etc., USA). In focus: same-store sales in Q2, demand trends for jewelry amid rising prices and rates, and inventory levels ahead of the holiday season.

Reporting: After Market Close (AMC)

• Salesforce (CRM) — leading developer of cloud software for businesses (CRM systems). In focus: financial results for Q2 of FY 2025: revenue growth of around +8% year-on-year to ~$10 billion is expected due to stable demand for cloud services. Investors will be particularly interested in management's comments on the implementation of AI features in Salesforce products and their impact on new sales, as well as updated forecasts for operational profitability.
• Broadcom (AVGO) — global supplier of semiconductors and infrastructure software. In focus: Q3 FY 2025 report: analysts are expecting double-digit revenue growth (~+20% year-on-year) due to strong demand for chips for data centers and artificial intelligence. Guidance from management regarding the microelectronics segment (especially orders from cloud giants) and the status of the VMware acquisition deal, which could enhance Broadcom's software business, will be crucial.
• Lululemon Athletica (LULU) — producer of athletic apparel and lifestyle goods. In focus: results for Q2 2025: markets anticipate strong sales growth (double-digit % year-on-year) driven by an expansion of online sales and the brand’s international growth. Comparable sales figures and inventory dynamics will be important, along with management's comments on consumer behavior in the premium segment amid economic uncertainty.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) — provider of enterprise IT solutions. In focus: quarterly report reflecting demand for servers, storage systems, and HPE GreenLake services (IT as a service model). Investors will evaluate how rising global rates impact client IT budgets and equipment orders. Profitability is also key — whether HPE can maintain margins and reduce costs amid slower revenue growth.
• Zscaler (ZS) — American cybersecurity company (cloud-based Zero Trust services). In focus: subscription revenues from its internet security platform, growth in corporate clients and large deals. The market is watching whether the high expansion rate (~+35–40% year-on-year previously) continues or if corporate clients start optimizing SaaS expenses. The profitability forecast will also be crucial: whether Zscaler can balance growth and minimize losses as it scales its business.
• DocuSign (DOCU) — provider of electronic documentation and digital signature services. In focus: revenue growth rates which have slowed since the pandemic boom, and metrics for retaining corporate clients. Investors will pay attention to the number of new large contracts and the expansion of product functionality (integration with AI for document processing), as well as the company's profitability forecast for the latter half of the year.
• UiPath (PATH) — developer of robotic process automation (RPA) platforms. In focus: subscription revenue from automation software: strong growth is expected, but it is crucial to see whether it exceeds 20% year-on-year, signaling widespread adoption of RPA systems globally. Investors also need to see the company's progress towards breakeven (operational profitability) and hear management's comments on competition from AI-based solutions, which could partially replace traditional RPA.

It is worth noting that no equivalent scale financial reports are scheduled for September 3 in Europe (Euro Stoxx 50) and Japan (Nikkei 225) — most companies in these indices have already reported for the second quarter earlier in the summer. Similarly, there are no major corporate reports expected on the Russian market (MOEX index) on this day. Therefore, investor attention will be primarily focused on the aforementioned US and Chinese companies, whose results may set the tone for the technology sector and retail.