Economic News August 2, 2025 – US Labor Market, Trade Truce, Amazon and Samsung Reports

Global financial markets are finishing the week on an ambiguous note. On one hand, the US released weak labor market data indicating a sharp slowdown in hiring, which amplified concerns about economic growth prospects. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions have somewhat eased: the United States and the European Union managed to reach a compromise and avoid a large-scale trade war, bolstering risk appetite. Wall Street indices, after setting record highs in July, faced volatility amid mixed signals, while prices for safe-haven assets, such as gold, once again approached historical peaks. Investors from the CIS are particularly focused on the situation surrounding interest rates: the Federal Reserve paused its tightening policy, while the Central Bank of Russia is evaluating further steps following a recent rate cut. Below is a detailed overview of key economic news as of August 2, 2025, presented in a business style for investors.

US Markets: Weak Employment Report and Expectations for Fed Policy Easing

The American stock market ended the week with a slight decline following disappointing macroeconomic data. On Friday, the main Wall Street indices corrected downward (the S&P 500 lost about 0.3%, and Nasdaq - 0.4%), although by the end of July, they managed to show significant growth and remain close to record levels. Investors reacted to the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, which indicated a significant cooling in the labor market: non-farm payrolls increased by only ~73 thousand (versus ~105 thousand expected), marking the lowest growth in recent years. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (up from 4.0% the previous month), signaling a gradual weakening in labor demand. The slowdown in hiring, along with previously published data on a modest GDP growth of ~1.5% in Q2, points to a loss of momentum in US economic growth.

A distinctly weaker labor market altered the mood among market participants: if just a week ago cautious optimism prevailed, talks about a potential easing of monetary policy intensified. As expected, the Federal Reserve maintained the key rate around 5.5% at its meeting on July 30. However, signs of economic slowdown increase the likelihood that the Fed might lower rates in the coming months to support business activity. Yields on long-term US Treasury bonds fell sharply following the publication of weak data—investors are shifting towards defensive instruments in anticipation of a more dovish policy. This, in turn, weakened the dollar: the DXY index retreated closer to 99 points, and the EUR/USD pair rose into the $1.20 range. Meanwhile, inflation in the US continues to slow (the core consumer price index in June fell to ~3.3% y/y), giving the Fed more room to maneuver. Collectively, these factors support expectations that the regulator will shift its focus from combating inflation to stimulating the economy.

US stocks remain overall in positive territory for the month, but volatility has increased. Sectors sensitive to the economic cycle (such as industrials and commodities) have come under slight pressure due to recession fears. Meanwhile, the technology sector continues to receive support: investors are betting that a pause (and potential pivot) in the Fed's policy will enable growth companies to maintain high valuations. Analysts note that the FOMO effect ("fear of missing out") is still palpable in the market: despite the risks of slowdown, many investors are reluctant to exit the stock market after the best start to the year in decades. Next, participants will shift their focus to new data and events in early August—the focus will be on inflation forecasts for July and upcoming reports from major corporations that could either restore confidence to the market or heighten concerns.

Europe: Trade Compromise with the US and Signs of Economic Slowdown

European stock markets finished the week on a cautiously positive note. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose by about 0.5% over the final sessions, bouncing back from external risk concerns. The main news was the agreement reached between Washington and Brussels, which allowed for the avoidance of new elevated US tariffs on EU goods starting August 1. This move has eased the situation in global trade: the threat of a large-scale tariff war looming over European manufacturers (especially in the automotive sector) has receded. Shares of major European automakers (such as Volkswagen, BMW, Stellantis) reacted positively to reports of the trade compromise, as the direct risk of imposing 25–70% tariffs on car exports to the US was eliminated. However, uncertainty in global trade has not completely dissipated—US negotiations with several other partners (China, India) continue, and businesses in Europe still take into account the possibility of new barriers in the future.

The macroeconomic situation in Europe is gradually deteriorating, although a sharp decline has been avoided. According to preliminary estimates, the eurozone economy grew virtually unchanged in Q2 (growth of about 0.1–0.2% q/q), with some countries already balancing on the brink of technical recession. Inflation, meanwhile, is slowing down: the July estimate showed a decline in the overall price level to ~3.0% y/y (down from 3.4% in June) thanks to lower energy and food prices. However, core inflation remains elevated (around 3.5–4%), continuing to exert pressure on household spending. The European Central Bank paused at its meeting on July 24, keeping the refinancing rate at 2.1% and signaling that the rate hike cycle is nearing its end. The ECB’s softened rhetoric, combined with signs of cooling in the economy, led to a slight decrease in bond yields in Europe. The euro strengthened against the dollar over the past few days, taking advantage of weaker US data and the Fed's pause: the EUR/USD exchange rate has climbed to above $1.19.

On national markets in Europe, dynamics were mixed. The German DAX index gained slightly during the week, supported by a weaker euro (which enhances the export potential of German companies) and lessened concerns about US tariffs. Indices in France and Italy grew more modestly as local investors assessed the risks of a slowdown in the Chinese economy—a significant market for European luxury goods and industrial equipment. In the UK, the FTSE 100 also ended the week with slight growth; sentiment was influenced by expectations of the Bank of England’s decision: next week the regulator may raise rates again from the current 5.50% to 5.75-6% in a bid to tame persistent inflation (~6.5% y/y). Overall, European investors welcome the reduction of external risks but remain cautious amid weak economic indicators for the region and ongoing high price pressures on businesses and consumers.

Asia: Stimulus in China and Resilience of Indian Growth

Asian markets are experiencing mixed sentiments, reflecting a balance between domestic issues and an improving external backdrop. In China, authorities are attempting to support the economy against clear signs of slowdown. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell again in July below the threshold of 50 points (around 49.5), indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity for the second consecutive month. Weak external demand and cautious consumer behavior are leading to a downturn in the manufacturing sector. In response, Beijing announced an additional package of stimulus measures: the government has announced tax cuts for small businesses, eased mortgage lending conditions, and new infrastructure projects for the second half of the year. The People’s Bank of China had already cut key rates earlier (a total of 0.25 percentage points in June and July) and is signaling its readiness to continue easing monetary conditions to avert a deflationary spiral. Investors hope these measures will help achieve the government’s GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, although the current growth prospects remain below desired levels (the Chinese economy grew by 5.2% y/y in Q2 compared to 6.4% in Q1).

On other Asian exchanges, dynamics have been predominantly positive, though lacking a unified trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 continued to fluctuate near multi-year highs, finishing the week with a slight increase. Financial results from Japanese corporations for the second quarter generally pleased investors, while a weak yen remains supportive for export-oriented sectors. The Japanese yen stabilized after recent weakening around ¥145–146 per $1, receiving support from falling US bond yields. The Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy at its late July meeting, leaving the key rate negative and only slightly adjusting bond yield control parameters. Prior to the July 27 upper house elections, uncertainty somewhat restrained the market; however, the ruling coalition managed to retain a majority, which participants viewed positively—the course for stimulating the economy will continue.

Indian stock indices continue to reach historical highs, standing out among other emerging markets. The Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex have been steadily rising in recent weeks, reflecting investor confidence in the sustainability of Indian growth. The services sector and domestic consumption in India are showing robust expansion—recent PMI service data remains significantly above 50, indicating rapid activity growth. Foreign investments are also flowing into Indian assets, viewing the country as a growth point amid slowing in China. India’s economy is projected to grow more than 6% in 2025, making it one of the most dynamic large economies in the world. However, Asian investors remain vigilant overall: the slowing factor from China, the risks of global recession, and potential new trade disputes (e.g., between the US and China) may temper current optimism in the second half of the year.

Russia: Stable Ruble and Expectations of Further Rate Cuts

For the Russian financial market, the week passed relatively calmly, without shocking upheavals. The ruble, after a short-term weakening following the July decision of the Bank of Russia, is holding steady around 80 ₽ to $1. The key rate cut by 200 bps (to 18% per annum) had only a moderate impact on the attractiveness of ruble assets: the outflow of foreign speculative funds remains restrained, as the central bank’s decision was largely anticipated and priced in in advance. Moreover, ongoing sales of foreign currency receipts by exporters and cautious interventions by the regulator help smooth out exchange rate fluctuations. As a result, the ruble demonstrates relative stability even amid a declining interest rate differential, and volatility in the currency market has decreased compared to the beginning of the year.

Russia’s economic indicators are gradually improving after the shock of the previous year. Yearly inflation continues to slow: according to estimates from the Ministry of Economic Development, consumer price growth is on a trajectory of around 7.5% year-on-year—significantly lower than the peaks of over 12% last winter. The slowdown in inflation has opened up space for easing monetary policy. The Bank of Russia, in its accompanying commentary, noted the decline in inflation expectations among the population and weak consumer demand, allowing for an improved inflation forecast for the end of 2025 (to around 6-7% compared to previously expected 7-8%). The regulator did not rule out further rate cuts should current trends in price deceleration persist. The Russian debt market reacted positively to the CBR's move: yields on government bonds (OFZ) have declined confidently, boosting their price and attractiveness for investors.

The Russian stock market by the end of July was moving without a clearly defined trend, but the domestic backdrop is assessed as stable and favorable. The Moscow Exchange Index is consolidating near the 2850-point mark, approximately at the level of a week ago. Rate cuts support shares of companies oriented towards domestic demand (banks, developers, retailers), due to the prospects of lower credit costs for the economy. Simultaneously, the commodity segment of the Russian market feels secure due to relatively high prices for oil and metals: although global quotes have corrected, they remain at comfortable levels for Russian exporters. Investors in the CIS region continue to monitor the external backdrop—sanction risks and commodity price dynamics remain key factors. Nevertheless, the overall picture in the Russian market at the beginning of August is characterized by a reduction in uncertainty: a more accommodative CBR policy and a stable ruble create conditions for a gradual recovery in business activity in the second half of the year.

Commodity Markets: Oil Balances, Gold Returns in Value

Commodity markets have established relative equilibrium, although the influence of fundamental factors diverges. Oil prices are being held in a narrow range, reflecting the struggle between supply and demand forces. The North Sea Brent benchmark traded around $68–69 per barrel by the end of the week—about 1% lower than the levels at the beginning of July. On one hand, expectations of a global economic slowdown and weak macro data from the US and China limit the potential for price growth: investors predict moderate oil demand in the second half of the year. Many analysts maintain a cautious forecast, suggesting that by the end of the year, Brent quotes could drop closer to $60 per barrel amid cooling global economies. On the other hand, supply factors continue to support the market from deeper declines. OPEC+ countries are consistently complying with announced voluntary production constraints: Saudi Arabia has extended its additional cut of 1 million barrels per day through August, and Russia has confirmed a reduction in oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day. Thanks to these measures, global supplies remain relatively limited. Additional support for prices was also provided by temporary disruptions to Black Sea oil exports in July, as well as reports of partial easing of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil supplies, which, however, has a long-term nature. As a result, oil quotes continue to balance: markets are waiting for clearer signals regarding the state of global demand before choosing a direction for movement.

Meanwhile, gold is regaining its status as one of the most sought-after assets. After a brief correction in the second half of July, associated with rising yields and a strengthening dollar, the precious metal is on the rise again. By the end of the week, the spot price of gold rose to ~$3,380 per troy ounce, closely approaching the historical record (~$3,400). The weakness of new data on the US economy played into the hands of gold bulls: expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut led to a decline in real interest rates, increasing the attractiveness of gold, which does not yield coupon income. Additionally, investors have once again turned to precious metals as a safe-haven instrument amid ongoing uncertainty. Despite local improvements (for instance, a thaw in trade relations between the US and the EU), risks remain—from a potential deepening of economic downturns to geopolitical tensions in other regions. All of this supports demand for gold as a "safe haven" for capital. Analysts note that fundamental factors are favorable for the precious metals market: while inflation in major economies is still above target levels and monetary policy pivots are just beginning to take shape, investors are inclined to hedge against risks. Other valuable resources are showing mixed movements: for example, copper prices remain under pressure due to weakness in Chinese manufacturing, while agricultural commodity quotes are rising on reports of adverse weather in supplier regions. Overall, the commodity markets are entering August in a wait-and-see mode, reacting to every new signal from the global economy.

Corporate Reports: Tech Giants, Commodity Leaders and Consumer Demand

The quarterly earnings season continues, and the results from the largest public companies worldwide reflect divergent trends across economies. Below are some of the most notable reports and trends from recent days:

• Alphabet (Google) – the tech giant surpassed analysts' expectations for Q2. The company's revenue grew approximately by 10% year-over-year (to ~$79 billion), aided by a recovery in advertising revenues and sustained growth in Google Cloud. Alphabet's net profit increased even more significantly (to ~$21 billion), reflecting cost optimization and successful implementation of AI tools in the company's products. Alphabet’s management noted that demand for advertising services has strengthened even amid uncertainty, and investments in AI and search technologies enhance the business’s competitiveness. The company's stocks reacted with growth, settling at highs, which supported the entire Nasdaq technology sector.
• Amazon – the world's largest online retailer and cloud provider also delighted investors with strong results. In Q2, Amazon's revenue grew at a double-digit rate of 12% (to ~$142 billion), with both key segments – e-commerce and cloud platform AWS – showing firm growth. Stimulating consumer demand through loyalty programs and expedited delivery helped boost sales in North America and beyond, despite the global economic slowdown. Amazon's operating profit significantly exceeded last year's figures, aided by measures to improve efficiency and reduce costs in its retail sector. The company also improved its forecast for the entire 2025 year, expecting continued strong demand amid an expanded product range and further development of cloud services. These news confirm that even amid post-pandemic changes in consumer behavior, Amazon maintains its dominant position and ability to generate substantial cash flow.
• Samsung Electronics – the South Korean industrial giant reported mixed results, reflecting difficulties in the semiconductor sector. Samsung's consolidated revenue for Q2 remained around last year's level (~74 trillion won), while operating profit nearly halved (to ~4.7 trillion won, or $3.4 billion). The main reason is the ongoing decline in the memory chip segment: excess supply and weak demand from electronics manufacturers led to a sharp drop in chip prices, virtually eliminating profits from the division. However, some positive signals have emerged: sales of semiconductors for data centers and AI are rising, partially offsetting downturns in the mobile segment. Samsung's management expressed cautious optimism, expecting a gradual recovery in memory demand in the second half of the year as clients’ inventory levels decrease. Investors reacted neutrally to the report: while current indicators are weaker than last year's, there is hope that the bottom of the cycle has been passed and improvement lies ahead.
• Berkshire Hathaway – Warren Buffett’s conglomerate published strong financial results reflecting the resilience of its diversified business. Berkshire's operating profit in Q2 reached record levels, largely due to high returns from its insurance business and growth in interest income from its vast investment portfolio. The GEICO insurance unit returned to profitability amid rising rates and reduced losses, while the holding's manufacturing and energy companies demonstrated stable revenue growth. Additionally, Berkshire’s investment income received a boost from rising interest rates – more than $140 billion in free cash flow now generates substantial interest income, enhancing overall profitability. For the quarter, the company recorded significant net income, partially due to the paper increase in the value of stock investments (as the US stock market surged). The report emphasized that Berkshire Hathaway continues to buy back shares, remaining committed to its shareholder capital return strategy. Investors view the conglomerate's positioning positively: the diversification of businesses and Buffett's conservative approach allow the company to grow profits even in volatile market conditions.
• Norilsk Nickel – the Russian mining and metallurgy giant is preparing to present its report for the first half of 2025 (IFRS). Analysts expect mixed results: on one hand, the decline in world prices for some key metals (nickel, palladium) and sanctions could negatively impact the company's revenue and profit. On the other hand, "Norilsk Nickel" is generally managing to maintain stable production volumes, redirect exports to friendly markets, and control costs. Preliminary estimates suggest that the company's revenue for six months could decrease by 5-10% in dollar terms, while net profit could drop more significantly, considering last year's high base. Nevertheless, a strong balance sheet and low debt load allow "Norilsk Nickel" to retain investment appeal: the market will await management's comments on dividend prospects and the implementation of strategic projects (including the development of the Norilsk industrial area and environmental programs). The outcomes of the half-year will provide insight into how the company adapts to the new external economic reality and fluctuations in commodity markets.
• LVMH – the leading global luxury goods manufacturer (brands Louis Vuitton, Dior, Moët Hennessy, etc.) demonstrated resilience in demand for high-end products. In the first half of 2025, LVMH sales grew by approximately 9% and exceeded €45 billion, despite a challenging macro backdrop. The Asian market, especially China, made the largest contribution to growth: following the lifting of quarantine restrictions, consumer interest in luxury brands has resumed. The fashion division (Louis Vuitton, etc.) increased revenue at double-digit rates, while in the US, sales growth slowed due to restrained spending from wealthy consumers. LVMH's operating margin remained close to record levels, indicating the group’s ability to pass increased costs on to final product prices without losing customers. Management confirmed a positive outlook for 2025: high affordability among clientele and global brand recognition are expected to help the group maintain its growth trajectory. LVMH’s strong results serve as an indicator that global consumer demand for premium goods remains robust even in the face of economic challenges.

Overall, the combination of corporate reports reflects a contradictory picture in the global economy. The financial sector and conglomerate companies demonstrate benefits from high interest rates and diversification, while tech leaders continue to profit from digitization and new trends (cloud, AI), whereas industrial giants are struggling against cyclical demand declines. The consumer segment shows mixed results: mass demand is slightly declining under inflationary pressure, but the premium segment remains strong due to accumulated consumer wealth. Investors are closely analyzing these signals: the resilience of profits among some companies is encouraging, however, the existence of weak links (e.g., chips or automotive) serves as a reminder of risks. As autumn approaches, markets will increasingly focus on prospects for monetary policy easing by central banks and whether corporate profits can justify current high stock valuations.