Economic Events and Company Reports – Monday, July 28, 2025 – OPEC+ Meeting, Dallas Fed Index

Monday, July 28, 2025, will be filled with significant events in the economy and corporate sector that could influence investor sentiment and market dynamics. Investors in the CIS countries are particularly attentive to key economic events and the release of corporate reports to assess the state of the economy and the profitability prospects of companies. The outcomes of these events will impact the stock market, oil prices, exchange rates, and overall business activity.

Key Events on Monday, July 28, 2025:

• Meeting of the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which will discuss compliance with oil production cut agreements.
• Publication of corporate reports, including second quarter and first half of 2025 results from several companies (e.g., TGC-1 and Safmar Financial Investments (SFIN)).
• Completion of the tax period in Russia, which may impact export revenue sales volumes and the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate.
• Expectations for the upcoming meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) later in the week, shaping forecasts on interest rates and inflation.

Global Markets: Investor Expectations and Forecasts

As the new week begins, global financial markets exhibit cautious optimism. Investors are assessing prospects and adjusting strategies in anticipation of a series of important events that could significantly influence trading dynamics. The focus is on the situation in raw material markets, the upcoming U.S. Fed meeting, as well as preliminary data on inflation and business activity in major economies. Many analysts have already incorporated in their forecasts the likely maintenance of current monetary policies by leading central banks and considered the expected financial results of major companies. Overall, markets are in wait-and-see mode: participants prefer not to take risks until macroeconomic signals clarify and the outcomes of planned events unfold.

OPEC+ Meeting and Oil Prices

One of the day's central events will be the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting scheduled for July 28. While this committee does not make final decisions on production levels, it evaluates participants' compliance with agreements on oil production cuts and can provide recommendations for future policies. The oil market displayed volatility last week: global oil prices declined in the first half of the week but rebounded significantly towards the end. Investors reacted to signals regarding global demand and potential increases in supply.

If the OPEC+ meeting concludes without surprises and the quotas remain unchanged, market participants expect oil prices to maintain their current range. However, any statements from OPEC+ regarding demand and production outlooks could influence oil price forecasts. For investors from oil-producing CIS countries, oil price dynamics are crucial as they impact the revenues of energy companies, the state of the trade balance, and budget revenues.

U.S. Fed Policy: Market Expectations

Although the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision will be announced later in the week, global markets are already pricing in relevant expectations on Monday. Currently, the consensus forecast suggests the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. A slowdown in inflation in the U.S. and signs of economic stabilization provide grounds for a pause in the tightening cycle of monetary policy.

Investors are closely monitoring any comments from Fed representatives, as even hints at potential future changes in policy — for instance, the possibility of resuming rate hikes or, conversely, easing policy — can significantly affect market sentiment. The Fed's policy directly impacts global liquidity and risk appetite: a more hawkish tone may dampen interest in riskier assets, while signals of easing could bolster stock markets, especially in emerging economies. Therefore, in CIS regions, investors also pay special attention to the Fed's decisions and forecasts, considering their indirect influence on local markets and currencies.

Inflation and Business Activity: Macroeconomic Overview

Inflation data and business activity indicators of major economies shape an overall macroeconomic picture that investors must consider when making decisions. In the U.S., year-on-year inflation is gradually declining compared to last year's peak levels, although it still exceeds the target of 2%. The eurozone is also witnessing a slowdown in price growth; however, core inflation remains relatively high.

At the same time, published business activity indexes (PMI) signal improvements: recent reports indicate robust expansion in manufacturing and services in the U.S. and signs of economic activity recovery in Europe. In China, the government continues to stimulate the economy, attempting to support business activity amid external risks. Thus, macroeconomic indicators instill cautious optimism: the global economy displays moderate growth alongside decreasing inflationary pressure. If positive trends persist, analysts' forecasts for future developments may improve in terms of GDP growth rates and price dynamics.

Ruble Exchange Rate and Currency Market Dynamics

Monday marks the conclusion of the July tax period in Russia, during which exporters typically sell foreign currency revenue to pay taxes, supporting the ruble's exchange rate. It is expected that after this period ends, the currency supply on the market may decrease, creating conditions for a modest ruble depreciation in early August. Experts note that the exchange rate of the Russian currency is likely to remain relatively stable in the near term. Specifically, several analysts estimate that the U.S. dollar may trade around 78–82 rubles per $1, while the euro may fluctuate within a range of 92–97 rubles per €1. Negative factors for the ruble include seasonal increases in demand for foreign currency (for instance, during summer vacations, currency purchases by the public rise) and ongoing geopolitical risks that heighten interest in savings in hard currencies.

On the other hand, support for the national currency continues to come from still high oil prices, foreign currency sales by the Ministry of Finance (including yuan from reserves under the budget rule), as well as a high key interest rate from the Central Bank of Russia. The recent reduction of the key rate by the Central Bank to 18% per annum has slightly eased financing conditions; however, the level remains elevated. High rates make ruble assets more attractive for investors and help to curb capital outflows while simultaneously cooling credit activity and imports. The balance of these opposing factors suggests that sharp fluctuations in the currency market are unlikely: the ruble is expected to move within a specified range, primarily reacting to external shocks and energy price dynamics.

Russian Stock Market: Prospects for Investors

The Russian stock market concluded the previous week with little significant movement, reflecting a mixed influence of internal and external factors. High oil prices and expectations of strong corporate results supported stock quotes in the oil and gas and raw materials sectors. At the same time, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and restrictions on certain industries restrained more active index growth. Investors in Russia are closely awaiting the start of the first half of 2025 earnings reports from major issuers. Expectations of improved financial performance in the banking and consumer sectors add to market optimism.

However, the influence of factors such as high domestic interest rates is twofold: on one hand, expensive credit resources hinder business activity and consumer demand, while on the other hand, they contribute to an influx of funds into deposit instruments, making investments in companies with stable profits more attractive due to limited alternatives. Analysts provide moderately positive forecasts for the dynamics of the domestic stock market in the near term. Should favorable pricing conditions for raw materials persist and no new negative shocks arise (for example, intensifying sanctions or sharp fluctuations in global markets), the Moscow Exchange Index may continue its gradual growth. Nonetheless, the strategies of many investors remain cautious: portfolio diversification and the choice of defensive assets remain relevant amid ongoing risks.

Corporate Reporting: Company Profits

On Monday, investors will analyze fresh corporate reports from several issuers that could impact the prices of individual stocks. The focus will be on:

• TGC-1 – operational results for the second quarter of 2025 (electric power).
• Safmar Financial Investments (SFIN) – financial results under RAS for the first half of 2025 (investment holding).
• VSEH – board meeting to consider recommendations to shareholders regarding profit distribution and dividends for 2024.

The publication of semi-annual reports allows an assessment of how companies' profits have changed compared to last year and the previous quarter. Steady revenue and profit growth indicates favorable conditions and can support these issuers' market capitalization. Positive results from energy or financial companies may trigger increased investor interest in their stocks. Conversely, if the reports reveal profit declines or indicate potential challenges in the second half of the year, this could lead to price corrections.

Overall, the current corporate reporting season plays a significant role in shaping market sentiment. Investors use the new data to adjust their strategies and forecasts. Strong reports will bolster confidence in economic recovery, while weak ones may prompt a reconsideration of investment approaches in specific sectors.

Conclusion

The start of the week on July 28, 2025, combines several factors that could set the tone for markets in the near term. Key economic events and the publication of corporate reports on this day will provide investors with valuable insights into the state of the economy and business. The market's reaction to the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting, oil price dynamics, signals from the Fed, and financial results from companies will indicate how well current expectations align with reality.

It is crucial for investors in CIS countries to closely monitor these events, as they provide benchmarks for investment decisions. A sound analysis of received data on economic trends and company profitability will assist in timely portfolio adjustments and the exploitation of emerging opportunities. Thus, Monday will set the starting point for the week: if news aligns with forecasts, relative stability might be maintained in the markets, while unexpected factors could trigger a capital redistribution among assets. In any case, diversification and a balanced approach to risks remain the best strategy for investors looking to preserve and grow their capital in a changing market environment.