Economic Events and Company Reports - Monday, August 4, 2025 - Inflation in Turkey, Sentix Index

Monday, August 4, 2025, will be filled with significant events in the economy and corporate sector that could influence investor sentiments and market dynamics. Investors in the CIS countries are particularly attuned to key economic indicators and corporate earnings releases to assess the state of the economy and the profitability prospects of companies. The outcomes of these events will impact stock markets, oil prices, currency exchange rates, and overall business activity.

Main Events for Monday, August 4, 2025:

• Closed markets in the UK (Bank Holiday) and Canada (Civic Holiday).
• Release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Switzerland for July – 09:30 Moscow time.
• Release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Turkey for July – 10:00 Moscow time.
• Publication of the Sentix Investor Confidence Index (August) for the Eurozone – 11:30 Moscow time.
• Release of Factory Orders statistics for the US for June – 17:00 Moscow time.
• Publication of corporate reports, including earnings results for Q2 and the first half of 2025 from several major companies (for example, Palantir and PJSC "Rostelecom").

Global Markets: Investor Expectations and Forecasts

As a new week begins, cautious sentiments prevail in global financial markets. In Asia, there is a restrained dynamic: key indices, such as the Japanese Nikkei 225, are declining following a sharp drop on Wall Street last Friday. European markets (Euro Stoxx 50) are anticipated to open modestly amid the closure of the London exchange, with futures for US indices also reflecting investor caution.

Market participants are evaluating prospects and adjusting strategies following a volatile end to the previous week, with significant upcoming events capable of substantially impacting trading dynamics. Focus remains on the global trade situation (new import tariffs in the US have heightened uncertainty), forthcoming macroeconomic data, and signals from central banks. Many analysts have already factored in potential shifts in policies from leading regulators (expectations for a rate cut from the Fed have notably increased) and accounted for the anticipated strong financial results from major companies. Overall, markets are in a wait-and-see mode, preferring to avoid risks until macroeconomic signals and outcomes of scheduled events become clearer.

Fed Policy and Central Bank Expectations: Market Sentiment

Although the decision from the US Federal Reserve is not expected until September, markets are already revising their forecasts concerning monetary policy. Weak US labor market data for July has bolstered confidence that the Fed may opt for a rate cut at its upcoming meeting. During its meeting at the end of July, the regulator kept rates unchanged, noting a slowdown in inflation; however, investors are closely monitoring any comments from Fed representatives. Even hints about future steps – whether it signifies a resumption of rate hikes in response to inflation spikes or a move towards easing policies to support the economy – can significantly affect market sentiments.

Fed policy directly influences global liquidity and risk appetite: a more hawkish tone dampens interest in riskier assets, while signals of easing support equity markets, particularly in emerging economies. Consequently, in the CIS countries, decisions and forecasts from the Fed are closely watched by investors, who consider the indirect impact of American policy on local markets and currencies.

Inflation and Investor Sentiment: Macroeconomic Signals

Inflation figures and business sentiment indices released on Monday will shape the macroeconomic backdrop against which investors will make decisions. In Switzerland, annual inflation remains close to zero, significantly lower than in most countries, reflecting price stability. In contrast, Turkey continues to experience very high inflation: consumer prices in July rose, albeit below last year’s peaks, still around 35% year-on-year. The markets will be watching to see if the decline in Turkish inflation continues, as this will impact expectations regarding further actions from the Central Bank of Turkey and the stability of the lira.

The Sentix Investor Confidence Index for August will also be released in the Eurozone. In recent months, this indicator has turned upward – in July, it reached a level close to positive territory for the first time in three years, signaling an improvement in sentiment. If the Sentix continues to rise in August, it will underscore the growing optimism among European investors. Overall, macroeconomic trends suggest cautious optimism: global inflationary pressure is gradually easing, and business sentiment is improving. If these positive trends persist, analysts’ forecasts for economic growth and business profits could improve, leading to stronger confidence in the markets.

Ruble Exchange Rate and Currency Market Dynamics

At the beginning of August, the domestic currency market in Russia is facing the weakening of one of the factors that supported the ruble: the July tax period has ended, during which exporters traditionally sold foreign currency earnings to pay taxes, thereby strengthening the ruble. There are expectations that after this, the supply of foreign currency may decrease, leading to a moderate weakening of the ruble. Nevertheless, the exchange rate of the Russian currency is likely to remain within a relatively stable range in the near term. The US dollar is trading around 78–82 rubles, while the euro is in the corridor of 92–97 rubles.

Among the negative factors for the ruble are the seasonal increase in demand for foreign currency in summer and persistent geopolitical risks that heighten interest in savings in stable currencies. At the same time, the ruble is supported by high oil prices, Ministry of Finance currency sales under the budget rule, as well as the elevated key interest rate set by the Bank of Russia (18% annually), which makes ruble-denominated assets attractive. The balance of these factors indicates that sharp fluctuations in the currency market are not anticipated: the ruble is likely to continue moving within the established range, responding mainly to external shocks and energy prices.

Russian Stock Market: Prospects for Investors

The Russian stock market ended the previous week with no significant changes. A sharp drop in global markets on Friday amidst trade conflicts and weak data from the US created a negative backdrop. However, high commodity prices and expectations for robust corporate results supported interest in oil and gas and commodity sector stocks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and industry restrictions (sanctions) restrained price increases. Investors are awaiting the publication of earnings reports from leading issuers for the first half of 2025, and hopes for improved performance in the banking and consumer sectors add to the optimism.

The high interest rate domestically has a dual impact. Expensive loans restrict business activity and consumer demand, but at the same time stimulate inflows into high-yield instruments and enhance the appeal of stocks from companies with stable profits. Analysts expect a moderately positive scenario: under favorable conditions in the commodities markets and in the absence of new shocks (increased sanctions or a global asset sell-off), the Mosbirzhi index may continue to rise.

Corporate Reporting: Company Earnings

On Monday, investors will analyze fresh reports from several major companies that could influence the dynamics of individual stocks and the overall news backdrop. The focus will be on:

• Palantir – Q2 2025 financial results (an American technology company that develops data analysis platforms).
• PJSC "Rostelecom" – consolidated IFRS reporting for the first half of 2025 (Russia's largest telecom operator).
• BioNTech – Q2 2025 results (a German biotechnology company).

The publication of quarterly and semi-annual reports allows for an assessment of revenue and profit trends relative to previous periods. Sustained growth in financial indicators indicates favorable conditions and can support the market capitalization of issuers, while declines in profitability or cautious forecasts may lead to a correction in stock prices.

The corporate earnings season is crucial for market sentiment. Investors adjust strategies based on new data: strong results bolster confidence in business prospects, while weak ones prompt a reevaluation of investment approaches.

Conclusion

The start of the week on August 4, 2025, combines numerous factors capable of setting the tone for the markets. Key economic events and the publication of corporate reports on this day will provide investors with valuable insights into the state of the economy and business. The market's reaction to the macro data and financial results will show how well the current expectations of market participants are justified.

Investors in the CIS countries should closely monitor these events, as they provide a foundation for decision-making. A careful analysis of incoming information regarding economic trends and corporate profits will help timely adjust portfolios and seize new opportunities. Thus, Monday will set the starting point for the entire week: if the news aligns with forecasts, relative stability may persist in the markets, while unexpected factors could trigger capital reallocation between assets. Diversification and a measured approach to risks remain a reliable strategy for investors striving to preserve and enhance their capital.