Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on August 21, 2025. Preliminary PMI Indices in Key Economies of Asia, Europe, and the USA, Labor and Real Estate Market Statistics in the States, Consumer Confidence in the Eurozone, and Financial Results of Major Companies from the USA (Walmart, Intuit, Workday, Ross Stores), Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Thursday presents a packed agenda for global markets. Investors will assess a series of preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings—from Australia and Japan to Germany and the USA—in the morning to gauge the current state of industry and services worldwide. The European session will focus on consumer confidence and business dynamics, while American markets will zero in on labor market data (initial jobless claims) and housing sector statistics, as well as a new composite leading index. Concurrently, the central bank symposium in Jackson Hole will draw attention to the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech. On the corporate front, a series of earnings reports will be released by several leading companies: before the market opens, the world’s largest retailer, Walmart, will announce its results, followed by quarterly reports from US tech and consumer giants (Intuit, Workday, Ross Stores, Zoom, etc.) after market close. Key releases will also emerge from Asia and the Russian market (MOEX). Investors will compare these macro and micro signals, assessing how economic statistics align with corporate earnings and forecasts.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 02:00 — Australia: preliminary PMI indices (August) for manufacturing, services, and composite.
- 03:30 — Japan: preliminary PMI indices (August) for manufacturing, services, and composite.
- 08:00 — India: preliminary PMI indices (August) for manufacturing, services, and composite.
- 10:30 — Germany: preliminary PMI indices (August) for manufacturing, services, and composite.
- 11:00 — Eurozone: preliminary PMI indices (August) for manufacturing, services, and composite.
- 11:30 — UK: preliminary PMI indices (August) for manufacturing, services, and composite.
- 15:30 — USA: initial jobless claims (week of August 16).
- 15:30 — USA: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (August).
- 16:45 — USA: preliminary PMI indices (August) — manufacturing, services, and composite.
- 17:00 — USA: existing home sales (July).
- 17:00 — USA: leading economic index (July).
- 17:00 — Eurozone: consumer confidence index (August, preliminary).
- 17:30 — USA: natural gas inventories (EIA) for the week.
Business Activity: PMI from Asia to Europe
The day will kick off with the publication of PMI indices worldwide. In Asia, preliminary PMI assessments for both the industrial and service sectors will be released for Australia, Japan, and India. These figures will indicate whether growth momentum is maintained in the region or if a slowing trend is emerging. For example, as a commodity-based economy, Australia responds to demand from China, thus its PMI may reflect external risks. Japan continues to grapple with deflationary pressures and weak domestic demand, and the trajectory of Japanese PMIs will indicate whether the industrial sector has managed to stabilize. In India, which has shown steady growth in recent months, investors will seek confirmation of the sustainability of this trend in the new PMI data.
In Europe, a series of morning PMI releases will provide a fresh perspective on the largest economies. Preliminary business activity indices for Germany and the Eurozone for August will reveal the depth of the industrial sector's continued contraction and whether the previously strong service sector is losing pace. In July, many European manufacturing PMIs remained below the 50 mark, indicating a decline in output, while the services sector slowed amid rising interest rates and weak consumer spending. If the August figures indicate further deterioration in business sentiment, this may heighten expectations for a dovish shift from the ECB in the future. UK PMIs are also crucial: the British economy faces high inflation and stagnation risks, so a slowdown in either the services or manufacturing sectors could impact the pound and the Bank of England's policies. Overall, the aggregated picture of global PMIs on this day will allow assessment of how synchronously the world economy is cooling down in the latter half of summer, or if there are pockets of sustainable growth.
Eurozone: Consumer Confidence under Pressure
Complementing European macro statistics will be the Eurozone's consumer confidence index for August. This preliminary measure, reflecting household sentiments, is released by the European Commission. In recent months, the indicator has remained in negative territory (below zero), indicating a predominance of pessimism among consumers. A slowdown in inflation to target levels may have slightly improved public sentiment; however, the ongoing economic weakening and high borrowing costs continue to dampen optimism. If the new report shows the confidence measure remaining weak (for example, around -15 points) or declining further, it will confirm European consumers' caution, posing risks for weak demand in the latter half of the year. In equity markets, a weak consumer sentiment could reflect negatively on the stock prices of retailers and auto manufacturers sensitive to consumer spending. Conversely, signs of recovering confidence could support the euro and shares of consumer sector companies.
USA: Labor Market and Industrial Production
American data at 15:30 MSK will provide important benchmarks for the state of the US economy. Weekly initial jobless claims remain an operational indicator for the labor market. In recent weeks, this figure has hovered around moderate levels, indicating still resilient demand for labor. If the number of claims does not change significantly (or suddenly rises), market participants will draw corresponding conclusions about employment dynamics: stability will support expectations of a “soft landing” for the economy, while an increase in unemployment may amplify recession fears and push the Fed toward a more flexible rhetoric.
Simultaneously, the Philadelphia Fed will release its August manufacturing index. The Philadelphia Index is one of the early signals of the state of US industry for the current month (along with the recent Empire State Index from New York). In July, the Philadelphia indicator showed negative values, reflecting a decline in activity amid high rates and cautious business behavior. Investors will look to see if the situation improves in August: a rise in the index towards zero or into positive territory would indicate a partial recovery of manufacturing on the East Coast, while further declines would deepen concerns regarding an industrial slump. Combined with national PMIs (S&P Global) shortly thereafter, this release will help shape expectations for the ISM index and overall manufacturing output for August.
USA: PMI, Housing Market, and Leading Indicators
From 16:45 to 17:00 MSK, attention will shift to a suite of American indicators. The preliminary composite PMI for the USA for August from S&P Global will allow comparison of trends between the manufacturing and services sectors. In the previous month, the services activity index remained above 50, indicating expansion, while the manufacturing PMI fell below the threshold. If August brings a slowdown in the services sector (for example, due to weakening consumer demand) or further contraction in manufacturing, expectations for US economic growth may be revised downward. The market will respond accordingly: weak PMIs may intensify speculation about a possible pause or end to the Fed's tightening cycle, which typically supports stocks and bonds but pressures the dollar.
Housing data—existing home sales for July—will provide an additional nuance to the portrait of the US economy. The housing market is highly sensitive to interest rates: mortgage rates in the USA are at their highest in years, cooling demand for homes. The volume of existing home sales had previously declined due to high borrowing costs and limited supply in the market. If the July report shows a further decrease in sales pace (compared to June), it will confirm that the housing sector remains in a slump. However, investors may interpret such news ambiguously: on one hand, a weak housing market signals economic slowdown; on the other, it reduces inflationary pressures (through slowed growth in property prices), which may keep the Fed from new rate hikes.
Finally, the composite leading economic index (LEI) for July, calculated by the Conference Board, continues to attract attention as a harbinger of potential recession. This composite index, which includes 10 parameters (from jobless claims and new orders to consumer expectations and stock indicators), has shown negative year-on-year dynamics for several consecutive months. A new decline in the LEI for July will confirm the ongoing trend: accumulation of weakness in the US economy. Although the leading index does not elicit immediate market reactions, its prolonged decline often precedes economic downturns, becoming part of the overall data mosaic for strategic investors.
Monetary Policy: The Start of the Symposium in Jackson Hole
On August 21, the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole begins, gathering central bank leaders and economists from around the world. The focus of the event is on long-term trends in monetary policy and regulatory strategies. Typically, introductory sessions and speeches by individual officials take place on the first day of the conference. This year, a speech by Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, is scheduled for Thursday, which may provide cues on the Fed's assessment of current economic risks. Although the key event of the symposium—the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell—will occur only on Friday, markets will begin reacting to any statements from Jackson Hole participants on Thursday. If Fed representatives’ comments indicate growing concern about an economic slowdown or other factors, investors might expect a more dovish tone from Powell. Conversely, a continued hawkish rhetoric on fighting inflation will signal that interest rates are likely to remain high longer. The symposium in Jackson Hole traditionally has the potential to provoke significant volatility in currency and bond markets, as it sets the direction of monetary expectations for the coming months.
Earnings Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, USA and Europe)
- Walmart (WMT) — the world’s largest retailer (S&P 500). The report for Q2 of the 2025 financial year will be released before the US market opens. Investors will focus on sales dynamics in the USA and the company's international business. Comparable store sales (LFL) and e-commerce figures are especially important: will growth be maintained post-clearance season, or are consumers beginning to economize amid high borrowing costs? Walmart's margins are also under close scrutiny, considering inflationary costs and discount programs to attract buyers. The management’s forecast for the second half of the year will set the mood in retail: confirmation of existing targets or upward revisions will support the sector, while a cautious outlook may heighten concerns regarding consumer demand.
- Hays plc (HAS.L) — an international recruitment company (FTSE 250, UK). Hays’ annual results will serve as an indicator of trends in the global labor market, especially in the field of skilled hiring. The focus is on the dynamics of commission income in key regions (Europe, Asia, Australia) and management comments on demand for employees. Economic slowdowns may have impacted hiring activity in Q2 2025; if Hays reports a decrease in job vacancies or cautious clients, it will confirm the overall cooling of business activity. Conversely, sustained performance, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, could indicate ongoing demand for specialists in certain sectors. Hays’ results are of interest not only to local investors but also globally, as a leading indicator of the labor market condition in the corporate sector.
- Public Joint Stock Company "Softline" (MOEX: SOFL) — one of the leading Russian IT solution integrators and distributors. In the morning, the company will present its audited IFRS financial statements for the first half of 2025. Softline operates within the business digital transformation segment, so key metrics include revenue growth from software and cloud services, the dynamics of new contracts with corporate clients, and profitability. CIS investors will evaluate how fluctuations in the ruble, sanctions on technology imports, and the restructuring of IT equipment supply chains have affected the company. Positive results (e.g. double-digit revenue growth) could elevate Softline’s stocks and those of other tech companies on the Moscow Exchange.
Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, USA)
- Intuit (INTU) — a developer of financial software (S&P 500). After market close, Intuit will report its Q4 for the 2025 financial year. Since this quarter includes the US tax season (ending July 15), results from the Tax segment (TurboTax application) will be particularly important. Investor attention will also be on subscription dynamics for business solutions like QuickBooks and the ecosystem of services for small businesses. Intuit’s management traditionally publishes forecasts for the new financial year; any signs of slowing client growth or cautious profit forecasts could affect the entire cloud software sector, whereas an optimistic outlook would bolster confidence in the resilience of demand for fintech services.
- Workday (WDAY) — a provider of cloud ERP systems for personnel and financial management. The quarterly report from Workday (Q2 FY2026) will serve as a barometer for corporate IT spending. Investors will assess revenue growth from Workday’s cloud subscription services, especially among major corporate clients. In a context where many companies are revising digitalization budgets due to economic uncertainty, metrics on new deals and contract renewals are essential. Profitability is also in focus: WDAY management seeks to improve operational margins, and quarterly net profit/loss will provide insight into whether they are succeeding in balancing growth and expenses. Workday’s second-half financial year outlook will shape sentiment in the business cloud software segment.
- Ross Stores (ROST) — an American discount retailer of clothing and home goods. Results for Q2 of the 2025 financial year will be published after the main session, complementing the overall picture in the retail sector. Previously, competitors like Target and TJX indicated shifts in consumer preferences: middle-class consumers are searching for cheaper options amid high living costs. Ross, operating a network of off-price stores, may benefit from this trend. Key indicators include comparable sales and in-store traffic, gross margin (dependent on discount levels), and inventory levels. Should Ross Stores exceed earnings expectations and raise its guidance, this will bolster investor confidence in the resilience of discount retail. However, weak results could signal that the consumer economy is slowing down more than anticipated.
- Zoom Video Communications (ZM) — a provider of video conferencing and communication services. Zoom will present its Q2 financial results after market close. In the post-pandemic era, the company strives to maintain growth through corporate clients and new services (Zoom Phone telephony, contact centers, AI feature integrations). Investors will analyze revenue growth rates (which slowed to single digits in the previous quarter) and profitability forecasts. Competition will be of particular interest: how Zoom is retaining its positioning against Microsoft Teams and other platforms. If the results show stabilization in demand and expansion of major contracts with businesses, ZM shares will receive support. Guidance for the next quarter and annual revenue forecasts will indicate whether Zoom is achieving a new sustainable level of development.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: On August 21, there are relatively few major releases from top-tier European companies, so macro data might be the primary drivers of movements. EU markets will react to the morning PMI results and the consumer confidence index. If the statistics indicate further deterioration in economic perspectives, the Euro Stoxx 50 index could come under pressure, especially in cyclical sectors (automotive, banking). Conversely, unexpectedly strong business activity indices would support European stocks amidst hopes that recession can be avoided. Additionally, external factors will influence sentiments: fluctuations in oil and gas prices (important for European industry) and the euro-to-dollar exchange rate (a strong euro may restrain exporters).
- Nikkei 225 / Japan: Japan's quarterly earnings season is nearing its end as August approaches, and most major companies reported at the beginning of the month. However, investors continue to monitor individual releases from mid-sized industrial and consumer companies, as well as the macro backdrop. Preliminary PMIs for Japan in August, released early in the morning, could influence Nikkei 225 dynamics the following day: improvements in indicators could bolster confidence in economic recovery, while weak numbers would increase pressure on the Bank of Japan for additional stimulus. Additionally, the yen-dollar exchange rate remains a factor: prolonged yen weakness supports exporters and the Japanese index, although the regulator may signal a correction in monetary policy is possible. Overall, the Nikkei 225 will be guided by a combination of internal signals and Wall Street sentiments.
- MOEX / Russia: On the Russian market, the focus on August 21 will be on half-year reports from individual issuers. In the morning, financial statements from Softline will be published, while operational data from certain companies is expected during the day, and after market closure, investors will follow key releases for August. Notably, the Tinkoff Group (TCS), one of the largest private banks and fintech players in Russia, will disclose its Q2 2025 earnings after a series of strong operational results. A double increase in its client base or growth in the credit portfolio, which TCS previously reported, may also reflect in its financial metrics, setting a positive tone for the entire banking sector. Overall on the Moscow Exchange, the peak of major companies' half-year reporting publications takes place at the end of August and the beginning of September. This period traditionally sees increased activity from local investors, with predictions regarding dividends and assessments of the fundamental attractiveness of stocks being revised. The geopolitical backdrop and ruble exchange rate also remain important variables for the Russian market, determining capital inflows or outflows regardless of the corporate successes of individual issuers.
Day's Summary: What to Pay Attention to as an Investor
- 1) Global PMIs and Business Sentiment: Thursday is rich in business activity indices worldwide. A synchronous slowdown in PMIs (especially if both the USA and Eurozone show weakening) will heighten fears for global growth and may prompt a shift towards safer assets. Conversely, signs of stability or growth in services amid a moderate downturn in manufacturing might support the belief in a "soft landing" for the global economy.
- 2) Labor Market and Consumption in the USA: Data on unemployment and home sales will provide important signals. Low jobless claims and a resilient housing market will shift the focus towards overheating risks in the economy, suggesting that the Fed will maintain a tough stance. However, any deterioration (increase in unemployment or drop in home sales) will quickly amplify discussions of an approaching recession and a potential regulatory shift towards stimulus.
- 3) The Fed and Jackson Hole: Initial comments from the symposium may highlight key points ahead of Jerome Powell's Friday speech. If the tone is cautiously optimistic (acknowledging lowering inflation and hinting at a pause in rate hikes), equity and bond markets are likely to respond positively. Conversely, strong statements on continuing the fight against inflation may trigger sell-offs in risk assets and strengthen the dollar.
- 4) Corporate Reports from Market Leaders: The financial results of Walmart, Intuit, Workday, Ross, and others will set direction for specific sectors. A strong report from Walmart with a confident forecast will bolster retailer shares and indicate consumer demand health. Reports from tech companies (especially Workday and Zoom) will reveal whether corporates continue to spend on software and services—an important factor for the entire IT sector. Investors should be prepared for heightened volatility in individual issuer stocks following their results publication.
- 5) Risk Management Amid a Dense News Environment: August 21 combines a broad macroeconomic backdrop with a busy corporate event schedule. The concentration of data increases the likelihood of sharp market movements. Investors are advised to define key levels for their positions and possible reaction scenarios to incoming indicators in advance. The use of stop-loss orders, asset diversification, and thoughtful hedging will help navigate the day effectively. In times of uncertainty, it is better to avoid excessive leverage and maintain awareness of correlations: for instance, weak US data may simultaneously bolster demand for bonds (lowering their yields) and push the tech-heavy Nasdaq higher, while the dollar may weaken. Sound risk management will enable investors to capitalize on market fluctuations throughout the day while protecting capital from unexpected shocks.
