Economic Events and Company Reports — Friday, August 1, 2025: Non-Farm Payrolls, PMI, and Earnings Reports from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Moderna

On August 1, 2025, financial markets will focus on a series of significant macroeconomic events and corporate earnings reports. Investors are anticipating fresh data on the global macroeconomy, ranging from Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures in key countries to U.S. labor market indicators (Non-Farm Payrolls). Simultaneously, several major publicly traded companies in the U.S., Europe, and Asia will be releasing their quarterly earnings reports, providing insights into the corporate sector's health across various industries. Such a wealth of information could set the tone for stock markets and investor sentiment.

Asian Session: PMI in China Sets the Morning Tone

The Asian morning of August 1 begins with the release of manufacturing activity indexes. **China** traditionally influences the overall sentiment: the Caixin manufacturing PMI for July will be published early in the morning. Previous data indicated an unstable recovery in Chinese industry around the threshold of 50 points — a reading of 50 signifies stagnation. Investors and commodity markets will carefully scrutinize the new PMI value, as shifts in Chinese industrial demand impact the prices of metals and energy resources. **Japan** will publish its final estimate of the manufacturing PMI, confirming the sector's status at the start of Q3. Overall, Asian macroeconomic signals will set the backdrop for the trading day.

Europe: Inflation in the Eurozone and Industrial Trends

As the day unfolds in European markets, attention will shift to inflation and industrial data. **Eurostat** will release the preliminary estimate of inflation in the Eurozone for July (flash CPI) around 12:00 MSK. It is expected that the annual growth of consumer prices will remain around 2%, with Core CPI exceeding the European Central Bank's target level. A slowdown in inflation could influence expectations regarding ECB interest rates and bond market sentiment. Additionally, final PMI indices for industrial activity in major European economies — Germany, France, the entire Eurozone, and the **United Kingdom** — will be published throughout the day. Preliminary July PMIs indicated a continued decline in manufacturing activity in the region, although the pace of contraction may have slightly eased. These macroeconomic developments are vital for assessing the state of the European economy and the prospects of the industrial sector. **Switzerland** will be closed for trading on Friday due to a national holiday (bank holiday).

It is noteworthy that **Russia** will also release the manufacturing PMI for July: in the previous month, this indicator was slightly above 50 points, reflecting a continuation of moderate growth in the industry.

U.S.: Non-Farm Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing Index

The key event on Friday will be the U.S. labor market data. At 15:30 MSK, the Labor Department will publish the employment report for July: Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to be around +100–120 thousand, lower than the June increase of (+147 thousand). Such a slowdown in hiring may signal an economic cooling, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly (from 3.6% to ~3.7%). Additionally, data on average hourly earnings, crucial for assessing inflationary pressure, will be released: the forecast anticipates a month-on-month wage growth of approximately +0.3%. Market reactions to these economic events will be significant — a weak report could strengthen expectations of imminent dovish policy changes from the Federal Reserve, while an unexpectedly strong report might lead to a sell-off in bonds and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

In the afternoon, investors will shift their focus to the U.S. industrial sector. At 17:00 MSK, the ISM Manufacturing Index for July will be announced. It is expected that the manufacturing ISM will remain around the neutral mark of 50 points, indicating stagnation in the U.S. manufacturing industry. The final PMI values from S&P Global for American industry will also be published, confirming previously recorded sector dynamics. The combination of these data points will determine short-term sentiment in the U.S. stock market and may influence trends in global markets.

Corporate Earnings Reports in the U.S.

In addition to macro statistics, investors are keenly focusing on corporate results for the second quarter. This Friday, several large American corporations from various sectors will release their financial reports. Their results will provide insights into the health of Corporate America amidst an economic slowdown and rising costs driven by recent inflation.

• Energy: Oil and gas giants ExxonMobil and Chevron will present quarterly results reflecting the impact of oil price dynamics on profitability in the sector. A decrease in metrics compared to last year's record figures is anticipated; however, investors will concentrate on management comments and forecasts. Additionally, utility company Dominion Energy will report, illustrating trends in electricity and gas supply.
• Pharmaceuticals and Biotech: Biotechnology firm Moderna and pharmaceutical company Regeneron Pharmaceuticals will publish their reports. Moderna, experiencing a sharp decline in revenue following a boom in vaccine demand, is likely to report a loss for the quarter. Conversely, Regeneron is expected to show stable income thanks to sales of its flagship drugs.
• Industry and Raw Materials: In this segment, results will be released by chemical and technology conglomerate LyondellBasell, industrial gas leader Linde, and engineering firm Fluor. Their reports will provide insight into industrial and construction demand. Moreover, auto parts company Magna International will present data crucial for assessing the health of the automotive sector.
• Consumer Goods: Reports from consumer goods manufacturers Colgate-Palmolive, Kimberly-Clark, and Newell Brands are anticipated. Investors will evaluate how inflation has impacted spending and demand, as well as these companies' ability to maintain margins through price increases.
• Finance and Investments: Major financial firms will release their results, including investment manager T. Rowe Price, management company Franklin Resources, alternative investment holding Ares Management, and exchange operator Cboe Global Markets. Their reports will show the dynamics of commission revenues and trading volumes amid market volatility. A report from mortgage REIT Arbor Realty Trust is also expected, reflecting the state of the real estate and lending markets under changing interest rates.

Corporate Reports in Europe and Asia

In Europe and Asia, August 1 will also witness a series of corporate earnings reports capable of influencing local markets. Among European issuers, aviation holding **International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG)**, which includes British Airways and Iberia, will release results amid a robust summer tourism season. Some major banks in the region, such as Austrian **Erste Group** and Greek **Alpha Bank**, will also report, providing insights into the health of Europe's financial sector.

In Asia, investors will look to the report from Japanese trading conglomerate **Mitsui & Co**, reflecting trends in global commodity trading. Japanese tech corporation **TDK**, one of the largest electronics and components manufacturers, will also present its quarterly results, serving as an indicator of demand in the high-tech sector.

Moreover, several companies outside the U.S. will release earnings reports on this day. For instance, Canadian telecommunications operator **Telus** and international media holding **Liberty Global** will publish financial metrics characterizing the situation in the telecom and media industries. Mining company **AngloGold Ashanti** (South Africa) will present results reflecting profits from high gold prices. Thus, the global corporate earnings picture on August 1 encompasses multiple industries and regions, providing investors with extensive insights into the world economy.

Russian Market: Focus on External Signals

For the Russian stock market, the beginning of August does not bring significant internal drivers — no major quarterly earnings reports from Russian companies are scheduled for August 1. Therefore, investors in Russia will primarily rely on external factors. Special attention should be paid to the dynamics of oil prices and shares in the oil and gas sector after the release of reports from ExxonMobil and Chevron: any surprises from these global leaders could influence assessments of Russian oil and gas outlooks. Additionally, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls statistics could affect global investor sentiment and, indirectly, the exchange rate of the ruble through changes in risk appetite. In the absence of internal news, external economic events and corporate earnings reports will dictate the dynamics of the local market on this day.

What Investors Should Pay Attention To

The first day of August is rich in key economic events and corporate reports, so market participants should exercise special caution. Investors should monitor the morning PMIs to indicate direction for commodity markets and Asian platforms, followed by attention to European inflation data during the day, culminating with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. Volatility in stock markets may increase if actual macroeconomic indicators significantly deviate from expectations. Corporate earnings waves are equally important: results that exceed or disappoint expectations can lead to noticeable movements in individual stocks and entire sectors. In a mixed signal environment from macroeconomic and corporate reports, it is advisable to diversify risks and avoid emotional decisions by thoroughly analyzing incoming information. As the week closes, markets will formulate their outlook based on the comprehensive suite of events from this Friday.