Energy Sector News – Wednesday, July 30, 2025: Brent Surpasses $70; Europe Accelerates Gas Injection Ahead of Winter

Midweek, the global fuel and energy sector shows sustained optimism. The price of Brent crude oil has surpassed the $70 per barrel mark for the first time in the past two weeks, driven by easing trade tensions and geopolitical factors, while the European gas market is strengthening thanks to active stockpiling of fuel in storage facilities. At the same time, the industry is attempting to balance supply and demand: OPEC+ countries are adhering to a gradual increase in production, while Russia has implemented restrictions on gasoline exports to curb domestic prices. Below is a detailed overview of key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and other segments of the fuel and energy sector as of July 30, 2025.

Oil Market: Brent Surpasses $70, Geopolitics Boosts Growth

Oil prices continue to trend upwards. The North Sea blend, Brent, approached a two-week high and briefly surpassed the psychologically important level of $70 per barrel. American WTI remains around $66-67. Price increases are fueled by several positive factors:

• U.S.-EU Trade Truce: The conclusion of a framework agreement between Washington and Brussels helped avoid an escalation of the trade war at the last moment. The parties agreed to mutually lower tariffs and significantly increase the export of American energy resources to Europe. This news improved investor sentiment and heightened expectations for increased demand for U.S. oil in the near future.
• Geopolitical Risk and Sanctions: U.S. President Donald Trump intensified rhetoric towards Moscow, shortening the deadline for resolving the conflict in Ukraine to 10-12 days. This effectively sounded like a ultimatum threatening new sanctions against Russia and buyers of its raw materials. This increased uncertainty regarding global supplies and added a risk premium to oil prices.
• OPEC+ Actions: Oil-producing countries within the alliance continue to gradually increase supply. In August, a total quota increase of approximately 548,000 barrels per day is expected (higher than the original plan), and a similar increase is likely to occur in September. Recently, the joint monitoring committee of OPEC+ confirmed its commitment to the deal and readiness to increase production to prevent shortages in the fall – these signals are moderating further price rallies.

As a result of these cumulative factors, the oil market remains relatively balanced. Brent has settled in the $68-70 per barrel range: the recent growth momentum has been offset by expectations of increased supply from OPEC+. Despite the recent uptrend, current oil prices are still 10-15% lower than a year ago – a reflection of market correction following the peaks of the 2022-2023 energy crisis. Investors are also monitoring external economic signals: negotiations between the U.S. and China over trade disputes continue, and it is expected that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain its interest rate without changes during its meeting on July 30. Loose monetary conditions, along with resolution of trade disputes, could support fuel demand in the second half of the year.

Gas Market: Storage Filling Accelerates, Prices Remain High

In the gas market, Europe remains in focus. EU countries are ramping up natural gas injections into underground storage facilities at accelerated rates in preparation for the winter season. By the end of July, European UGS facilities were over 70% filled (up from ~59% a month earlier), corresponding to more than 70 billion cubic meters of reserves. The active injection in June reached record levels (around 12-13 billion m³ per month), and although July's pace has slowed somewhat, the EU has managed to close the gap from last year's storage filling schedule. The target of reaching at least 90% storage capacity by the start of the heating season appears achievable for now.

Gas prices remain elevated. The benchmark European index TTF fluctuates around $400 per thousand cubic meters, which is approximately in line with similar levels from the previous year. The summer heat in Western Europe is increasing the load on power grids (due to air conditioning), while the need to replenish reserves is also supporting gas demand. Furthermore, pipeline supplies from Russia remain limited: transit through Ukraine has been entirely suspended since the beginning of the year, while volumes along the "Turkish" route remain at moderate levels (~50 million m³ per day).

Experts warn that this year, Europe will need to import significantly more LNG than last year, considering the high gas withdrawal last winter and the abandonment of most Russian supplies. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum and analytical agencies note that competition for liquefied gas in the global market may intensify closer to autumn. If filling storage facilities becomes challenging, it is possible that summer spot prices in Europe will even exceed last winter's levels. For now, LNG supplies are meeting the EU's needs: the U.S. is breaking its own export records – in July, gas deliveries to American LNG plants exceeded 450 million m³ per day. Total LNG imports into Europe at the beginning of July stood at around 370 million m³/day (slightly below June's 404 million, as some cargoes headed to Asia). The main importers – the largest economies in the EU and Turkey – continue to receive significant volumes of liquefied gas from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries. Norway, maintaining its status as a leading supplier of pipeline gas to the EU, is keeping exports at high levels (over 300 million m³/day in June), although periodic repairs at fields (such as at the “Nihamna” terminal) temporarily reduce throughput.

Meanwhile, extreme heat in Asia is prompting several countries to increase coal burning instead of costly gas. In East Asia, summer temperature peaks have heightened demand for LNG for power generation, but many consumers are unwilling to pay high prices, switching some generation to coal. This temporarily reduces competition between Asia and Europe for spot gas cargos, easing the task of accumulating reserves for the EU. Overall, the gas market is currently balancing Europe’s desire to fill storage facilities against limited capabilities for quickly increasing global supplies. The market will closely monitor the further progress of gas injections into EU UGS facilities, weather conditions in the remaining summer months, and levels of demand in Asia.

Global Agreements and Politics: Transatlantic Deal and Pressure on Russia

Recently, the main event on the international agenda has been the trade and energy deal between the U.S. and the EU, which could reshape the dynamics in the global energy market. Recall that Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen agreed to an unprecedented increase in American energy exports to Europe in exchange for partial tariff reductions on European goods. Over the next three years, the European Union pledged to purchase approximately $750 billion worth of oil, LNG, and even nuclear fuel from the U.S. The aim is to virtually replace oil and gas supplies from Russia by the end of 2027, thereby strengthening Europe's energy independence from Russia.

• Unified Tariff and Investments: All EU countries agreed to open their markets to American goods by establishing a unified import tariff of 15%. This decision reflects a compromise that helped avert the introduction of a 30% tariff on European cars by the U.S. beginning August 1. As part of the package, Europe also promised to invest $600 billion into the U.S. economy – directed towards infrastructure, green technologies, and more. Thus, the deal is mutually beneficial: Europe gains guarantees of energy security, while the U.S. expands its markets and attracts capital.
• Energy Component: The European Union committed to purchasing energy resources from the U.S. worth $250 billion annually (oil, LNG, petroleum products, nuclear fuel). It is anticipated that the U.S. will become the key supplier of gas and oil to Europe, effectively displacing Russian resources. Shares of major American LNG exporting companies (such as Cheniere, Venture Global) have already responded with a rise of 7-9%, factoring in expected stable demand from Europe.
• Assessments and Skepticism: Some analysts doubt that the EU can physically fulfill such purchase volumes. European companies operate under market conditions, and a sharp increase in imports from the U.S. is only feasible with a substantial increase in prices for American energy resources. For instance, experts estimate that achieving export values of oil and gas totaling $250 billion per year would require oil prices in Europe to rise to $120+ per barrel, which is unlikely in the medium term.

Meanwhile, Washington is increasing pressure in the political sphere. The ultimatum issued by Trump regarding Ukraine expires in the second decade of August. If there is no progress in peace negotiations, the U.S. threatens new stringent sanctions against Moscow. This could target remaining channels for exporting Russian energy resources – further restrictions on the export of oil, petroleum products, or gas from Russia to the global market are not ruled out. This creates additional risks for price volatility as autumn approaches. Additionally, the U.S. is actively working with partners in Asia: energy agreements have already been reached with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, while Washington is seeking to extend the tariff truce with China and reduce oil imports from Russia and Iran. All these initiatives are aimed at restructuring global fuel supply chains, strengthening the positions of American exporters, and weakening the role of competitors.

European leaders, for their part, welcome the transatlantic deal. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called it "historic" and emphasized that it brings much-needed stability for businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. The Chancellor of Germany noted that the agreement helped avoid a new round of trade confrontation and reduced costs for European industry. In Moscow, however, such an agreement is seen as a long-term challenge: in effect, the European Union is solidifying its course towards rejecting Russian oil and gas, forcing Russia to accelerate its shift of exports to other markets (Asia, the Middle East, Africa). Energy market participants are closely monitoring the fulfillment of the deal's conditions and possible retaliatory reactions from Russia and its partners.

Electricity and Renewables: Record Loads and Growth of 'Green' Generation

Unusual weather this summer is setting new records in the electricity sector and confirming the importance of renewable energy sources (RES). In China, July saw a record load on the energy system: peak electricity consumption reached a historic maximum of about 1.5 TW (1.5 billion kWh). Such high demand is associated with extreme heat and widespread use of air conditioning. However, approximately half of the increase in power generation in China was provided by solar power plants, and hydropower also increased generation compared to last year – this helped partially offset the demand surge and avoid major disruptions.

In the U.S., the rapid development of RES is already changing the structure of generation. As of March 2025, the share of wind and solar in U.S. electricity generation reached nearly 24%, surpassing the contributions of coal-fired and nuclear power plants (each providing less than 20%). Collectively, all renewable sources (including hydropower, biomass, etc.) accounted for around 26% of U.S. electricity production in the first quarter, and by mid-year this figure increased to a record 32%. Thus, green energy in the U.S. has for the first time surpassed coal and is gradually catching up with nuclear generation in significance.

For Europe, the growth of the share of RES has also become a strategic trend, especially following the energy crisis. In 2023, when some EU countries temporarily increased coal generation due to gas shortages, CO₂ emissions and electricity prices surged. However, by 2025, the situation has stabilized: gas storage is full, new wind and solar generation capacities have been introduced, and the share of coal in the EU's energy balance is once again decreasing. Despite new temperature records (for instance, heat in the second half of July led to overheating water at some nuclear power plants, complicating their cooling), Europe’s energy system is managing peak loads without significant disruptions. Grid operators are implementing high-alert modes on days of extreme heat, and renewable sources are covering an increasing share of demand. Overall, the summer of 2025 showcases the resilience of the electricity sector: even under challenging conditions, consumers are provided with electricity, largely thanks to record outputs from RES.

Coal Sector: High Demand and Stable Prices

Coal continues to play a significant role in the energy balance of many countries, despite the world's focus on decarbonization. According to forecasts from the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption in 2025 will remain near historical highs and could set a new record. Global production is expected to reach ~9.2 billion tons this year – largely driven by increased coal use in Asia. In countries like India and much of Southeast Asia, coal generation continues to rise to meet growing electricity demand.

China, the largest coal consumer, is likely to maintain its burning levels in 2025 at last year's rates or see only slight reductions (projected to decline by less than 1% compared to 2024). Meanwhile, European countries, having filled gas storage and introduced new RES capacities, are reducing coal-fired generation. Following a surge in coal generation in 2022-2023 (when coal temporarily replaced expensive gas), the share of coal in the EU’s energy system is rolling back down. Nevertheless, coal remains an important energy source in some Eastern European economies – for example, in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Greece – where its share in generation remains high.

Coal prices in the global market have shown moderate dynamics in recent months. Futures for energy coal (API2 index) are trading in the range of $110-120 per ton (Rotterdam port, end of July). This is somewhat higher than levels at the beginning of summer (quotes rose by ~5-7% over the past month), but still noticeably lower than prices a year ago (in the summer of 2024, coal was 15-20% more expensive). This pricing reflects a balance: on one hand, global demand for coal remains high (especially during heat waves when coal is actively used to cover peak loads), while on the other hand, supply in the market is sufficient, and consumers have accumulated significant reserves. Major exporters such as Australia, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa maintain stable supplies to the global market. In developed countries, the trend towards reducing hydrocarbon generation continues: environmental restrictions and tax policies make new coal projects less attractive. However, as noted, some Asian nations are temporarily increasing coal use to avoid purchasing expensive gas. As a result, global coal consumption remains on a “plateau.” Analysts from the IEA expect a gradual decline in global coal demand starting in 2026, provided that the energy transition accelerates and China's economy shifts more towards gas and RES. For now, however, the coal sector is ensuring near-record levels of electricity production globally, remaining an essential element of energy supply.

Refined Products and Processing: Regional Contrasts

The market for refined products varies significantly across different regions of the world. In Russia, authorities have taken an unprecedented step to stabilize domestic fuel prices. As of July 30, a temporary full export ban on gasoline for all companies, including major producers and refineries, will be in effect until August 31, 2025. This emergency measure aims to prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market and reduce the price surge during peak summer demand (holiday season and harvest campaigns). Previously, restrictions were limited to traders and oil depots; however, wholesale gasoline prices had reached new highs by the end of July, prompting the government to utilize administrative resources. Now, Russian refineries are directing virtually all gasoline volumes to the domestic market. It is expected that increasing supply on the exchange will cool prices, which had reached record levels in June and July. Indeed, immediately after the announcement of the ban, the exchange price of gasoline AI-92 fell by more than 1.5%, reflecting a decrease in frenzy. Experts believe this measure is temporary: by autumn, after the conclusion of agricultural work and a decrease in seasonal demand, the situation is expected to normalize and return to regular export modes. Nevertheless, Russia's example signals that even one of the largest gasoline exporters is willing to limit external sales for domestic consumers – highlighting the presence of local fuel imbalances across different regions of the world.

A contrasting picture is observed in the U.S., where the internal fuel market is currently experiencing a period of relative abundance. Thanks to high refining volumes at American refineries and unusually soft summer demand, gasoline prices in the U.S. have dropped to multi-year lows. The national average price of gasoline after Independence Day fell to around ~$3.14 per gallon (approximately $0.83 per liter) – a record low for the summer season over the past four years. Analysts suggest that in August-September, average prices across the country may breach the psychological threshold of $3 per gallon, a level not seen since spring 2021.

The reasons behind the decline in fuel prices in the U.S. are complex. Firstly, demand this summer turned out to be slightly weaker than expected: according to the Department of Energy, gasoline consumption in early July was 1-2% lower than a year ago. Extreme heat in the southern states somewhat reduced the number of long-distance car trips, while remote work popularity and cost-saving measures have lowered driver mileage. Secondly, gasoline supply has increased: American refineries are operating at high capacities, plus imports of fuel from Europe and Canada have surged on the East Coast. In June, the U.S. imported about 100,000 barrels of gasoline per day – a maximum over the past year. Wholesale bases and storage facilities are filled, leading to lower prices in bulk trade, which then trickle down to retail. Thirdly, the relative cheapness of oil in the first half of the year (WTI quotes are currently ~20% lower than a year ago) has reduced refiners' costs, allowing them to pass some of this advantage onto end consumers.

The decline in American fuel prices occurs alongside improvements in refining conditions. Spring maintenance at refineries has been completed, and the production of gasoline and diesel is at seasonally high levels. An additional factor is OPEC+: the cartel's increase in oil production in August will enhance raw material availability and exert downward pressure on global oil prices, indirectly facilitating further gasoline price reductions. In other words, the American refined products market is currently favorable for consumers: supply exceeds demand, and prices are gradually decreasing without shortages.

In Europe, the situation with motor fuel prices remains relatively stable. Following the upheavals of 2022-2023, when sanctions and logistics restructuring caused sharp price fluctuations, the European gasoline and diesel market has reached equilibrium in 2025. Current quotes for gasoline in the wholesale segment are close to early-year levels and significantly below last year’s peaks. This is supported by relatively cheap oil (around $70 compared to >$100 a year ago) and successful redirection of refined product imports: the EU has established stable diesel supplies from the Middle East, Asia, and the U.S. instead of relying on Russian volumes. As expensive fuel shipments purchased by European importers last winter are used up and replaced with cheaper supplies, gas stations in the EU are gradually reducing retail prices. Nevertheless, due to high taxes and duties, gasoline remains costly for the public – in the largest EU economies, prices hover in the range of €1.6-1.8 per liter at filling stations.

Overall, the global refined products market is not experiencing acute shortages, although regional disparities remain. In some developing countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh, several African states), high prices for imported fuel create tension – authorities are forced to subsidize gasoline for the public to avoid social discontent. Meanwhile, in the Middle East and India, oil refining is achieving records: local refineries, oriented towards exporting diesel and jet fuel, are operating at full capacity, saturating the global market with products. On the flip side, structural changes in the industry – for instance, the closure of several outdated refineries in Western Europe and the U.S. (including the mothballing of some capacities in California) – create risks of localized supply reductions in the future. For now, however, the summer of 2025 is relatively calm for the refined products market: fuel prices are either dropping or stabilizing, while consumers around the world are generally well-supplied with gasoline and diesel without disruptions.

Outlook: What to Watch

A number of factors remain on the horizon that could influence the dynamics of the global fuel and energy sector in the near future:

• OPEC+ Decisions: The market awaits official confirmation of OPEC+ production plans for September and beyond. If the alliance continues to increase supply as scheduled, oil prices may hold in the $65-70 per barrel range. However, any unexpected halt or change in agreements could prompt Brent quotes to rise again.
• Gas Storage Filling: It is critically important for Europe to reach the target of 90% filling of UGS by autumn. Any delays against the schedule or new supply disruptions (such as unscheduled repairs by Norwegian producers) may trigger a surge in gas prices at the end of summer. Conversely, early accumulation of reserves will exert downward pressure on quotes.
• Weather Factor: Prolonged extreme heat or the occurrence of natural disasters (hurricanes, floods) – particularly in the U.S. and Asia – may affect both demand for energy resources and the operation of energy infrastructure. Investors are closely monitoring forecasts: extreme temperatures could lead to real electricity supply interruptions or changes in fuel consumption.
• Geopolitics and Sanctions: The timeline for the U.S. ultimatum given to Russia expires in the second decade of August. Should Washington impose new sanctions on Moscow, heightened volatility in oil and gas prices could occur – especially if the restrictions target the export of Russian energy resources. Additionally, ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations remain in the market's sight: an extension of the tariff truce would reduce risks for the global economy and support demand for energy resources.
• Financial Markets and Economy: Macroeconomic data (inflation levels, interest rate trends, industrial growth rates) will influence commodity markets. Should major economies signal a slowdown, oil quotes may cool, and fuel consumption could decline. For now, however, basic forecasts anticipate moderate growth in oil demand (~+2% year-on-year) and gas by the end of 2025, creating a relatively favorable backdrop for the sector.

In summary, the fuel and energy sector confidently moves into the second half of summer. Oil is trading at levels that are comfortable for producers without putting excessive pressure on consumers. Gas remains expensive, but the situation is manageable due to coordinated efforts to fill reserves. Electricity is handling peak loads largely due to the rising share of RES. Coal and refined products maintain their niches and are not causing shocks to the global economy. Ahead lie important months of preparation for winter and ongoing international negotiations. Participants in the fuel and energy market will carefully monitor demand and supply balances to respond promptly to new challenges and seize emerging opportunities.