Exchange prices for gasoline have been hitting record highs daily since the beginning of the week. The price for AI-95 reached 66,034 rubles per ton, the highest peak since September of last year, while AI-92 hit 63,199 rubles per ton, the maximum since the onset of the fuel crisis in August 2023. At the gas stations, however, all remains calm; prices are rising moderately but lag significantly behind inflation. According to Rosstat, by June 9, gasoline had increased in price by an average of 2.7% since the beginning of the year, while consumer prices rose by 3.6%.
The main question is whether retail gasoline prices will catch up with exchange prices, which have increased by 11.3% for AI-92 and 7.6% for AI-95 since early June. Summer and early autumn are peak demand seasons for gasoline, during which retail prices usually show the most significant growth.
Moreover, over the last two years, it was at the end of summer that gas station prices caught up with the national average inflation level.
At the beginning of June, Anton Rubtsov, the director of the Oil and Gas Complex Department of the Ministry of Energy, reported that the Russian market was fully supplied with gasoline and diesel fuel (DF). As of June 5, the stocks of automotive gasoline at oil refineries and oil bases reached 1.8 million tons, which is 2% higher than the level at the same time last year.
This suggests that there should be no cause for concern. What is worrisome, however, is that exchange quotations are rising despite falling prices for Russian oil (following global trends) and regardless of the strengthening ruble. Exchange trading operates according to market laws, and the increase in quotations under current conditions can be most simply explained by a lack of supply in the trades. But the supply level has hardly decreased compared to May. It is possible that as demand rises, supply volumes should have increased as well. It was no coincidence that on June 17, the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) reported that it had sent a request to Gazprom regarding the reasons for the decrease in fuel sales on the exchange. The company owns the Astrakhan and Surgut plants, which produce gasoline and DF.
In 2023, Russia is not facing issues with fuel delivery to regions or with production and reserves.The rise in retail prices is being monitored by the government and the FAS, which are striving to prevent them from exceeding inflation. However, this is more of a guideline than a firmly established rule. Last year, gasoline prices in retail rose above inflation. Experts' opinions on the prospects of gasoline price increases at gas stations this summer vary.
According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" association and member of the expert council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, there are no logistic problems in Russia (in delivering fuel to regions), no issues with heightened demand, and no shortages of gasoline and DF. The situation regarding fuel for the summer is very positive. He suggested that attempts to explain the current movements in the exchange are mere speculation. For example, one might say that war is happening in the Middle East and oil will soon cost $300 a barrel, and the market reacts to this. The expert also reminded that retail prices for gasoline and DF in Russia are capped by inflation levels.
A similar opinion was voiced by Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner at NEFT Research. He believes that the rise in quotations is a natural seasonal phenomenon linked to increased demand. In this year, however, demand is growing slower than last year. Moreover, any comparison with 2023 is fundamentally incorrect, since considering high inflation and a sharp increase in fuel excise duties, prices should have been at much higher levels than what is currently observed. The expert emphasized that the market is fully supplied with fuel and cannot attribute price rises to shortages. This applies to all main grades of gasoline as well as DF.
However, Frolov's forecast is less optimistic. He expects that gas station prices will rise above inflation by the end of the year due to the sharp increase in excise duties at the beginning of the year, which has yet to fully reflect in retail prices.
From the perspective of Sergey Tereshkin, the CEO of the oil products marketplace Open Oil Market, the rise in exchange gasoline prices is linked to a reduction in subsidies for oil refineries. In May 2025, payments for the damping mechanism (compensation to oil companies from the budget for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices below export levels) amounted to 42.5 billion rubles – 32% less than the previous month and 79% less than in May 2024. The reduction in subsidies leads to a decline in oil refining margins. In this situation, oil companies have no choice but to compensate for losses through higher exchange prices.
It is worth noting, however, that the damping mechanism depends on petroleum product quotations in Europe, as well as the exchange rate of the ruble. This does not involve cutting subsidies but changing macroeconomic conditions. Oil and petroleum products have fallen in price worldwide, and the ruble has strengthened against the dollar.
According to Tereshkin, rapid movements in retail prices will not occur as a result of rising exchange prices since only 15% of the gasoline produced is sold on the exchange. However, it is expected that in the autumn, there will be a convergence between inflation rates and the rate of growth in retail prices: the strict monetary policy of the Central Bank will not only cool the economy but also slow down inflation.
Tereshkin also notes that there is no fuel shortage in the country: otherwise, the increase in retail gasoline and diesel prices would significantly outpace the inflation rate. Overall, the fuel market is performing better than could have been anticipated a year ago when Rosstat ceased publishing weekly data on gasoline and diesel production.
At the same time, the expert believes that the surplus in the gasoline market will not increase in the coming months, as European sanctions on the supply of equipment for oil refineries will complicate the realization of new investment projects.
Source: RG.RU
