The current situation closely mirrors that of the previous year, when, starting from the middle of summer, gasoline prices at gas stations began to rise sharply, ultimately surpassing inflation with an increase of 11.13%, compared to the average price growth in the country of 9.52%. Naturally, there is widespread concern about whether this upward trend will continue and to what extent prices may increase. With two months left in the season of high demand (the vacation period), there is ample time for gasoline prices to diverge further from inflation. This is particularly pertinent considering that, despite rising fuel prices, Russia has experienced deflation for two consecutive weeks, indicating a decrease in prices on average across the country. However, experts surveyed by "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" believe that the government's decision to fully prohibit gasoline exports—previously restricted for traders, but now also affecting fuel producers—will either halt or at least slow down retail price increases. In light of the export ban, oil producers will strive to curb the rise in retail prices. According to Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma's Energy Committee, the erratic dynamics in retail prices are driven by a need to reconcile increasing operational costs incurred by companies due to macroeconomic factors and added tax burdens. By September, the impact of the "gap reduction" (inequitable conditions) will diminish. However, there is a significant distinction from last year's gasoline situation. At that time, the primary price increase was concentrated in premium gasoline grades like AI-98 and above, which rose by 20.2%. In contrast, regular grades AI-92 and AI-95 experienced only modest increases above the national average, with rises of 9.7% and 9.8%, respectively. This year, however, the primary contributors to the price hike are AI-92 at 4.8% and AI-95 at 4.5%, while the premium grades have seen only a slight uptick of 2.1%. The government’s complete ban on gasoline exports aims primarily to stabilize the rising quotes on the stock exchange, which have surged by 27.2% for AI-92 and 40.8% for AI-95 since the beginning of the year. Initial declines in quotes following the anticipated ban and the government’s decision lasted only a few days, and by July 30, exchange prices were again on the rise. As noted by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the oil product marketplace OPEN OIL MARKET, under the export ban, oil companies have no choice but to slow the growth of retail prices. However, significant changes in the wholesale and exchange segments are unlikely, mainly due to declining profitability. According to the latest data from Rosstat, the net profits of Russian oil refineries fell by 61.5% in the first five months of 2025, amounting to RUB 521.5 billion. Such a drastic decline is largely attributed to a reduction in subsidies for oil producers. While the payments under the "damping" mechanism (compensations from the budget for fuel supplies to the domestic market at prices below export levels) totaled RUB 985.9 billion in the first half of 2024, the equivalent figure fell to RUB 544.7 billion in 2025, marking a 45% reduction. Under these circumstances, companies are likely to maintain high prices in the wholesale and small wholesale segments, Tereshkin explains. Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" association and a member of the expert council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, believes that it's not particularly meaningful to worry about weekly price growth figures. The goal is to keep the overall annual increase within the boundaries of average inflation, a target that has generally been met. Gusev is confident that this year will be no exception, while emphasizing that the "manual regulation" of the fuel market that has been in place since 2018 has its limits, necessitating systemic measures. Stankevich points out that the imposition of a complete export ban on gasoline once again illustrates the absence of market regulation in fuel retail. This measure resembles psychotherapy; the cooling of prices at the stock exchange will be situational and short-lived. There is no motivation to lower or halt the rise in fuel prices. The objective boils down to controlled increases within the annual parameters set. By the end of the year, retail prices are expected to either align closely with or slightly exceed inflation levels (10-12%), he predicts. According to energy expert Kirill Rodionov, the complete ban on exports will stabilize retail gasoline prices in the coming month, bringing them back within the inflationary range. Rodionov agrees that the sector requires new mechanisms to stabilize prices. The simplest solution would be to increase the mandatory volumes of exchange sales of fuel from the current 15% for gasoline and 16% for diesel to 33% and 50%, respectively, at least for those refineries located in the European part of Russia. He insists that competition mechanisms must be incorporated in the market. Source: RG.RU