We discussed with "Vedomosti" the prospects of Kazakh oil transit.
In August 2024, the Italian company Eni, through its subsidiary Agip Caspian Sea, began supplying Kazakh oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, noted that supplies through the CPC infrastructure are more convenient for Kazakhstan; however, the use of Druzhba is necessary due to the need to bypass infrastructure limitations. He also emphasized that oil production in Kazakhstan has decreased by 50,000 barrels per day from December 2023 to July 2024, which could impact the achievement of supply targets through Druzhba this year.
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Tereshkin: Gas prices in the EU will not exceed $500 per thousand cubic meters due to the "Sudzha" gas metering station (Prime Economic Information Agency).
On August 9, 2024, Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET oil products marketplace, commented on the potential consequences of reduced gas supplies through the "Sudzha" gas metering station for Europe. In his opinion, despite the increase in gas prices, the impact on European consumers will be limited. This is due to the low share of supplies through the "Sudzha" station in the overall gas imports to the EU, ongoing gas savings, and reduced consumption in industry. Tereshkin forecasts that the average monthly gas prices in Europe will not exceed $500 per thousand cubic meters in August 2024, after which they will begin to correct, despite the approaching winter season.
On August 9, 2024, Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET oil products marketplace, commented on the potential consequences of reduced gas supplies through the "Sudzha" gas metering station for Europe. In his opinion, despite the increase in gas prices, the impact on European consumers will be limited. This is due to the low share of supplies through the "Sudzha" station in the overall gas imports to the EU, ongoing gas savings, and reduced consumption in industry. Tereshkin forecasts that the average monthly gas prices in Europe will not exceed $500 per thousand cubic meters in August 2024, after which they will begin to correct, despite the approaching winter season.
Comment for "Rossiskaya Gazeta":
The Russian government plans to change the mechanism of compensation payments to oil companies for fuel supplies to the domestic market by separating them according to fuel types—gasoline and diesel. This will prevent a situation where an increase in the price of one type of fuel results in the cancellation of compensation for the other. The relevant bill has been developed by the Ministry of Finance.
The Russian government plans to change the mechanism of compensation payments to oil companies for fuel supplies to the domestic market by separating them according to fuel types—gasoline and diesel. This will prevent a situation where an increase in the price of one type of fuel results in the cancellation of compensation for the other. The relevant bill has been developed by the Ministry of Finance.
Sergey Tereshkin's column for INFOTECH.
In the article "Will Oil Production Decline in Iran and Venezuela? Should the Market Expect Sharp Price Growth or Increased Competition Among Exporters?" the author analyzes the current geopolitical events affecting oil production in these countries. The article discusses how the political crisis in Venezuela and the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran may impact the global oil market. Special attention is given to potential changes in oil production and export volumes, as well as their effects on global prices and competition among exporters. The article provides a deep analysis of the current situation and forecasts for the future development of the oil industry.
In the article "Will Oil Production Decline in Iran and Venezuela? Should the Market Expect Sharp Price Growth or Increased Competition Among Exporters?" the author analyzes the current geopolitical events affecting oil production in these countries. The article discusses how the political crisis in Venezuela and the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran may impact the global oil market. Special attention is given to potential changes in oil production and export volumes, as well as their effects on global prices and competition among exporters. The article provides a deep analysis of the current situation and forecasts for the future development of the oil industry.
Commentary for "Rossiyskaya Gazeta".
The article “The Export Ban Slowed the Growth of Exchange Gasoline Prices” discusses the impact of the August 2024 ban on gasoline exports on the Russian fuel market. Despite the export restrictions, exchange prices for gasoline remain close to annual highs. The price increase is particularly notable for AI-95 gasoline, which is attributed to a mismatch between consumption patterns and exchange sales volumes. Experts emphasize that to stabilize prices, it is necessary to include AI-95 in the parameters of the damping mechanism or consider reducing fuel excise taxes.
The article “The Export Ban Slowed the Growth of Exchange Gasoline Prices” discusses the impact of the August 2024 ban on gasoline exports on the Russian fuel market. Despite the export restrictions, exchange prices for gasoline remain close to annual highs. The price increase is particularly notable for AI-95 gasoline, which is attributed to a mismatch between consumption patterns and exchange sales volumes. Experts emphasize that to stabilize prices, it is necessary to include AI-95 in the parameters of the damping mechanism or consider reducing fuel excise taxes.
Sergey Tereshkin's column for the VGUDOK publication.
The article discusses the impact of the OPEC+ deal on the transportation of oil and petroleum products via Russian Railways (RZD) networks. In the first half of 2024, cargo volumes decreased by 1.1% to 104.4 million tons, which is attributed to the reduction in oil production in Russia under the agreement. Despite this, oil and petroleum products remain high-margin cargo for RZD, providing a significant portion of the company's revenue. The article also explores the prospects for the transportation of these goods and their impact on RZD's financial performance.
The article discusses the impact of the OPEC+ deal on the transportation of oil and petroleum products via Russian Railways (RZD) networks. In the first half of 2024, cargo volumes decreased by 1.1% to 104.4 million tons, which is attributed to the reduction in oil production in Russia under the agreement. Despite this, oil and petroleum products remain high-margin cargo for RZD, providing a significant portion of the company's revenue. The article also explores the prospects for the transportation of these goods and their impact on RZD's financial performance.
Tereshkin: Reducing fuel excise taxes in Russia could help increase the profitability of production (Prime).
Reducing excise taxes on fuel could boost the profitability of production and sales of petroleum products, as well as stop the rising prices. Sergey Tereshkin, the CEO of the fuel marketplace "Open Oil Market," pointed out that excise tax rates have increased significantly in recent years, which negatively affects the industry. He also suggested that the ban on gasoline exports could be lifted in November, provided retail prices are kept under control in the coming months.
Reducing excise taxes on fuel could boost the profitability of production and sales of petroleum products, as well as stop the rising prices. Sergey Tereshkin, the CEO of the fuel marketplace "Open Oil Market," pointed out that excise tax rates have increased significantly in recent years, which negatively affects the industry. He also suggested that the ban on gasoline exports could be lifted in November, provided retail prices are kept under control in the coming months.
Comment for RBC: Starting from August 1, 2024, Russia will reintroduce the ban on gasoline exports, which will last at least until September. This decision was made amid rising wholesale fuel prices: from May 20 to July 30, the price of AI-92 increased by 13%, and AI-95 by 29%. The price hike is driven by high demand and scheduled maintenance at oil refineries.
Experts note that this model of regulation, which includes temporary export bans, could become a permanent practice for stabilizing the domestic fuel market. However, it carries risks for the oil industry and requires the development of more sophisticated mechanisms, such as a futures market and a risk-hedging culture.
For a more detailed analysis of the situation and its impact on the fuel market, you can read the full article via the link above.
Experts note that this model of regulation, which includes temporary export bans, could become a permanent practice for stabilizing the domestic fuel market. However, it carries risks for the oil industry and requires the development of more sophisticated mechanisms, such as a futures market and a risk-hedging culture.
For a more detailed analysis of the situation and its impact on the fuel market, you can read the full article via the link above.
Column by Sergey Tereshkin for the "Oil and Gas Industry" Portal
According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the second quarter of 2024, global oil supply exceeded demand by 590,000 barrels per day. By the end of the year, this surplus is expected to narrow to 300,000 barrels per day.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET platform for oil products and raw materials, explains this trend with the following factors:
Easing of OPEC+ quotas: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other alliance members plan to increase oil production by December 2024, adding an extra 540,000 barrels per day to the market.
Rising production in Iran: Despite sanctions, Iran is ramping up oil production, reaching 3.25 million barrels per day in the first half of 2024, nearing its 2017 levels.
Growth in U.S. production: Output is projected to rise from 13.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 13.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by high prices that sustain profitability for shale projects.
Tereshkin notes that despite the increased supply, oil prices are expected to remain stable at around $80 per barrel until the end of 2024, with a potential price decline anticipated in early 2025.
According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the second quarter of 2024, global oil supply exceeded demand by 590,000 barrels per day. By the end of the year, this surplus is expected to narrow to 300,000 barrels per day.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET platform for oil products and raw materials, explains this trend with the following factors:
Easing of OPEC+ quotas: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other alliance members plan to increase oil production by December 2024, adding an extra 540,000 barrels per day to the market.
Rising production in Iran: Despite sanctions, Iran is ramping up oil production, reaching 3.25 million barrels per day in the first half of 2024, nearing its 2017 levels.
Growth in U.S. production: Output is projected to rise from 13.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 13.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by high prices that sustain profitability for shale projects.
Tereshkin notes that despite the increased supply, oil prices are expected to remain stable at around $80 per barrel until the end of 2024, with a potential price decline anticipated in early 2025.
Commentary for "Vedomosti":
The article "Strong Energy Ties" on Sergey Tereshkin's website is dedicated to the development of energy cooperation between Russia and China. The piece examines forecasts for energy consumption growth in China, the increase in Russian exports of oil, gas, and coal to the country, as well as the participation of Russian companies in the construction of nuclear power plants in China. Special attention is given to joint projects such as Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG-2, involving Chinese investors and banks. The article highlights the strengthening of energy ties between the two countries and the prospects for their further development.
The article "Strong Energy Ties" on Sergey Tereshkin's website is dedicated to the development of energy cooperation between Russia and China. The piece examines forecasts for energy consumption growth in China, the increase in Russian exports of oil, gas, and coal to the country, as well as the participation of Russian companies in the construction of nuclear power plants in China. Special attention is given to joint projects such as Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG-2, involving Chinese investors and banks. The article highlights the strengthening of energy ties between the two countries and the prospects for their further development.
Commentary for "Rossiskaya Gazeta": Experts predict an acceleration in the price growth of diesel fuel by the end of summer, but this increase will not exceed the inflation rate. The article examines the key reasons behind price fluctuations, seasonal factors, and measures that could impact the diesel fuel market. Find out what the market is expecting and how these changes could affect consumers and businesses.
Comment for "Rossiskaya Gazeta":
Why is the price of AI-95 gasoline rising faster than others? What are the reasons for the sharp fluctuations in fuel prices, and why is AI-95 leading the way in price hikes? The article examines the key factors influencing the gasoline market, explains the economic reasons behind the price increase, and what this means for consumers. Read the detailed analysis and expert forecasts on my website.
Why is the price of AI-95 gasoline rising faster than others? What are the reasons for the sharp fluctuations in fuel prices, and why is AI-95 leading the way in price hikes? The article examines the key factors influencing the gasoline market, explains the economic reasons behind the price increase, and what this means for consumers. Read the detailed analysis and expert forecasts on my website.