The ruble to dollar exchange rate forecast for late 2024 depends on many factors, including oil prices, inflation, interest rates, and the geopolitical situation. Experts give different estimates, taking into account current economic conditions and possible risks.
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development expects the exchange rate to be around 93.8 rubles per dollar. This forecast is based on stable revenues from oil and gas exports, as well as possible support measures from the Bank of Russia.
SberCIB Investment Research forecasts the exchange rate at 95 rubles per dollar, relying on high interest rates in Russia, which make the ruble attractive for short-term investments. However, factors such as sanctions and international instability may increase pressure on the ruble.
Independent analysts suggest the exchange rate in the range of 98-100 rubles per dollar if demand for Russian export goods decreases and sanctions are strengthened. In such a scenario, the ruble will come under additional pressure.
Key factors affecting the ruble to dollar exchange rate:
Oil prices: Since Russia is a major energy exporter, lower oil prices or lower demand could weaken the ruble.
Inflation in Russia: Domestic inflation at around 8.54% complicates the economic environment, making the ruble vulnerable.
Geopolitical environment and sanctions: New sanctions or strengthening of existing ones could limit access to currency and increase pressure on the ruble.
Interest rates: High interest rates support the ruble, but their reduction, if the Central Bank of Russia decides to ease monetary policy, could lead to its weakening.
Final forecast: Based on all these factors, the dollar to ruble exchange rate by the end of 2024 is expected to be in the range of 93 to 100 rubles per dollar. With stable oil prices and no new sanctions, the rate will likely be closer to 93-95 rubles. In a more negative scenario, with falling oil prices and increasing sanctions pressure, the rate may come closer to 100 rubles per dollar.
Comment by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market:
In such an uncertain economic environment, it is important to consider both scenarios - both strengthening and weakening of the ruble. The risks of exchange rate fluctuations remain high, so it is important for businesses and investors to plan their strategies based on possible changes in the rate.
