Nine Countries and 12,000 Warheads: Distribution of the Global Nuclear Arsenal

At the beginning of the week, investor attention was once again drawn to geopolitical risks. According to data from the Polymarket platform, the probability of nuclear weapon use in the current year is estimated at 17%. This alarming figure reflects the rising tensions around the world. To comprehend the primary sources of nuclear risks, it is essential to explore which countries possess nuclear warheads, in what quantities, how modern their arsenals are, and what this means for the global balance of power.

Global Nuclear Balance: Distribution of Warheads by Country

As of now, the global nuclear arsenal comprises about 12,000 warheads. All of them are concentrated in the hands of nine states, which are officially part of the "nuclear club." For comparison, during the Cold War, the total number of warheads exceeded 60,000; however, decades of disarmament agreements have reduced this stockpile to its current level. Nevertheless, the disarmament process has slowed down: leading powers are modernizing their arsenals, while some countries are increasing their nuclear potential.

More than 90% of all nuclear warheads in the world belong to two superpowers—Russia and the United States. The other nuclear powers possess significantly fewer weapons, but they still have enough deterrent capability. Below are the estimated numbers of nuclear warheads for each country (as of 2025):

• Russia – 5,459 warheads
• USA – 5,157 warheads
• China – approximately 500 warheads
• France – 290 warheads
• United Kingdom – 225 warheads
• India – 172 warheads
• Pakistan – 170 warheads
• Israel – ~90 warheads
• North Korea – ~50 warheads

A tenth country often mentioned in the nuclear context is Iran. Formally, Tehran does not possess nuclear warheads (0 units), remaining within the framework of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). However, Iran's uranium enrichment program creates tensions, as the country could theoretically develop a nuclear weapon if it were to violate agreements in the future.

Thus, today only nine countries actually possess nuclear weapons. Five of these—Russia, the USA, China, France, and the United Kingdom—are officially recognized as nuclear powers under the NPT. The others (India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea) have developed their arsenals outside of international agreements. Let us take a closer look at the nuclear forces of each of the key countries and the modernity of their capabilities.

Russia and the USA: Nuclear Superpowers

Russia

Russia holds the largest nuclear arsenal in the world—about 5,500 warheads. This is a legacy of the Soviet nuclear potential accumulated over decades of rivalry with the USA. Approximately 1,600 of Russia's nuclear warheads are deployed and stationed on strategic delivery vehicles (intercontinental missiles, submarines, and bombers), which is close to the limits set by the New START treaty. The remaining warheads are stored and can be deployed if necessary. Russia also has the largest stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons (short-range) that are not limited by international agreements.

Russia’s "nuclear triad" includes:

• Ground component: hundreds of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) based in silos and mobile launchers, carrying nuclear warheads. Among them are the newest ICBMs "Yars," and the heavy new-generation missile "Sarmat," capable of carrying up to 10 warheads and various hypersonic blocks, is on its way.
• Sea component: nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles (the "Dolphin" class and the newest "Borey" class). These submarines patrol the world's oceans, providing a hidden reserve of nuclear forces. Each submarine is equipped with "Bulava" missiles with multiple warheads.
• Air component: strategic bombers Tu-95MS and Tu-160 capable of carrying nuclear cruise missiles. Aviation offers flexibility in the application of nuclear weapons over long distances.

In recent years, Russia has been actively modernizing its nuclear weapons and delivery systems. In addition to the aforementioned "Sarmat," hypersonic glide vehicles "Avangard" capable of speeds that complicate interception by missile defense systems have been placed on combat duty. Non-standard types of nuclear weapons are also being developed, such as the underwater drone "Poseidon," equipped with a nuclear power plant. Although economic constraints hinder the pace of rearmament, the Russian arsenal remains a formidable force and continues to grow numerically (partly due to the slowdown in the disposal of old warheads).

USA

The United States of America has a comparably sized nuclear arsenal—approximately 5,100 warheads in total. Out of these, around 1,500 are strategically deployed, which equates to the Russian level as stipulated by the New START treaty. The US nuclear potential also developed during the Cold War, but from a peak in the 1960s to the 1980s (when the USA had over 20,000 warheads) it has been significantly reduced. Today, the US focuses on the quality and reliability of its nuclear forces while gradually reducing the overall number of warheads.

The US nuclear triad includes:

• Intercontinental ballistic missiles Minuteman III (400 silo-based ICBMs, each carrying a single warhead). These missiles have been on combat duty since the 1970s, and their replacement with a new system, Sentinel (previously known as GBSD), is planned for the coming years.
• Ohio-class submarines with Trident II D5 ballistic missiles. 14 American strategic submarines carry the majority of deployed warheads. Each Trident missile can carry multiple nuclear warheads. By the early 2030s, the US Navy plans to introduce a new generation of submarines—the "Columbia" class—to continue maritime deterrence.
• Strategic bombers: B-52 and stealthy B-2 Spirit bombers equipped with nuclear cruise missiles and bombs. A new stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider, which first took to the air in 2022, is also being developed to enhance the air component of the triad.

The USA is implementing a large-scale modernization program for its nuclear arsenal, tailored for decades ahead. This includes extending the lifespan of existing warheads (for example, the upgraded W76-1 warheads for Trident missiles). In the future, new types of warheads, such as the W93 for the Navy, are planned. The US doctrine emphasizes deterrence and maintaining alliances: a portion of the US nuclear bombs is stationed at NATO bases in Europe for collective security. In general, although the size of the US arsenal is gradually decreasing, it remains one of the most modern and reliable in terms of technological level and readiness.

Notably: Despite political tensions, Moscow and Washington currently comply with the quantitative limits of the New START treaty (no more than 1,550 deployed strategic warheads for each side). However, the current term of this last major arms control agreement expires in 2026. The absence of a new agreement could pave the way for a new arms race between the superpowers—a risk factor closely monitored by experts and markets.

China: Growth of Nuclear Potential

China lags significantly behind Russia and the USA in the number of nuclear warheads (about 400-500), but it is currently demonstrating the fastest growth in nuclear potential. A decade ago, China had just over 200 nuclear warheads, but in recent years, Beijing has actively increased its arsenal. According to Pentagon estimates, China could increase the number of warheads to 1,000 by the end of the current decade.

China's approach to nuclear deterrence has historically been based on the concept of "minimum sufficient deterrence": to have the capability to deliver an unacceptable retaliatory strike in the event of an attack. However, with the intensification of geopolitical competition, Beijing is investing in expanding and modernizing its forces. Today, China possesses a nuclear triad:

• A powerful arsenal of ground-based ballistic missiles of various ranges. This includes the new intercontinental missiles DF-41, capable of reaching US territory and carrying multiple warheads (MIRV). Satellite images in recent years have revealed the construction of hundreds of silos for ICBMs in western China, indicating plans to significantly increase the number of deployed missiles.
• Strategic submarines of the "Jin" class (Type 094) equipped with JL-2 ballistic missiles (with a range of about 7,000-8,000 km). These submarines provide China with second-strike capability. A next generation of submarines (Type 096) and missiles (JL-3) is under development, further strengthening the maritime component.
• Aviation: The Chinese Air Force is modernizing the H-6 bomber (equipped for aerial refueling, H-6N capable of carrying air-launched ballistic missiles) and is developing the prospective strategic stealth bomber H-20. This will allow China to achieve a fully operational air component of the nuclear triad for the first time.

Chinese leadership publicly declares its commitment to a "no first use" policy regarding nuclear weapons, yet is simultaneously creating capabilities for guaranteed retaliatory strikes against any adversary. The enhancement of China’s nuclear forces is already altering the strategic balance: the USA is facing the need to deter two comparable nuclear powers (Russia and China) for the first time. For the East Asian region, the increase in China's arsenal signifies heightened competition in the military sphere. However, in terms of technological quality (for instance, early warning systems or the number of nuclear warheads on alert), China currently lags behind the experienced nuclear superpowers. The coming years will reveal whether Beijing will continue to expand its arsenal at the same pace or settle for a new "minimum sufficient" level at the new threshold.

France and the United Kingdom: European Nuclear Powers

In Europe, two countries possess nuclear weapons—France and the United Kingdom. Their arsenals are significantly smaller than those of the USA, Russia, or even China, but they are among the most technologically sophisticated. Both countries are NATO allies (although France's nuclear potential is independent of NATO) and view their nuclear forces as a "last resort" to protect national sovereignty.

France

France possesses approximately 290 nuclear warheads. Historically, the French have built their deterrence concept on the principle of "devastating retaliatory strike" (“force de frappe”). France's nuclear forces consist of two components:

• Sea component: four strategic nuclear submarines of the "Triomphant" class, each armed with 16 M51 ballistic missiles. Each missile carries up to 6 nuclear warheads. These submarines constitute the main portion of France's nuclear potential and are constantly on patrol in the Atlantic.
• Air component: dual-use aircraft – Mirage 2000N and Rafale fighters capable of carrying air-launchable cruise missiles with nuclear warheads (ASMP-A). The French Air Force and naval aviation possess about 50 of such missiles, augmenting maritime deterrence and enabling strikes in the region if needed.

France does not have land-based ballistic missiles—as this segment was retired in the 1990s. Paris openly asserts that it does not plan to increase the number of warheads, adhering to a "sufficient and reliable" arsenal. Meanwhile, continuous updates of technical components are conducted: for example, the missiles M51 are being modernized (version M51.3) for increased range, and a new air-launched missile ASN4G is being developed to replace ASMP-A. France also conducts subcritical nuclear tests and computer modeling to maintain the warheads without full-scale testing. Thus, the French nuclear shield is compact but highly efficient, ensuring the country's status as a great power.

The United Kingdom

The United Kingdom possesses approximately 225 nuclear warheads. This is the smallest arsenal among officially recognized nuclear powers, yet London strives to maintain it as sufficient for reliable deterrence. The British nuclear doctrine is based on the concept of continuous sea patrolling: at least one Royal Navy submarine is always at sea in a state of readiness.

The UK’s nuclear forces are purely concentrated in one component—the submarine:

• Four Vanguard-class strategic submarines, each armed with Trident II D5 ballistic missiles (the same as those used by the US Navy). Each submarine can carry up to 16 missiles, collectively carrying around 120 warheads (typically, each missile is equipped with 3-4 warheads). The UK has not deployed other delivery devices (such as aircraft with nuclear bombs) since the late 1990s.

The UK cooperates with the USA in nuclear matters: British warheads are unified with American ones, and the missiles Trident are procured from the USA. In 2021, London announced that it would increase its arsenal's ceiling from 180 to 260 warheads (previously targeted for the mid-2020s). This decision was a response to the deteriorating global security situation. Additionally, new Dreadnought-class strategic submarines are being constructed to replace the current vessels in the 2030s and ensure continuity of nuclear deterrence. Despite its modest scale, the British nuclear arsenal remains a key element of the country's defense and European security, thanks to its advanced technology.

India and Pakistan: Nuclear Standoff in South Asia

In South Asia, two long-standing rivals, India and Pakistan, possess nuclear weapons. Both nations conducted their first tests in 1998, demonstrating their status as new nuclear powers to the world. Since then, their arsenals have gradually grown to comparable levels (approximately 170 warheads for each side). Nuclear weapons have become a central factor of security on the subcontinent, where territorial disputes exist between India and Pakistan and conflicts erupt from time to time.

India

India is estimated to possess approximately 160-172 nuclear warheads. The country is developing a "nuclear triad," aiming to ensure a capability for retaliatory strikes from land, sea, and air. On land, India has medium and intercontinental range ballistic missiles of the Agni series. The latest Agni-V can hit targets up to 5,000 km away, allowing it to reach locations in potential adversaries' territories, including China. Furthermore, the development of even longer-range missiles is ongoing.

The maritime component of India's nuclear forces consists of Arihant-class nuclear submarines equipped with K-15 ballistic missiles (range of about 700 km). Although the radius of action of these missiles is currently limited, India is working on the K-4 missile with a range exceeding 3,000 km to enhance its maritime deterrence. The air component includes Indian Air Force bombers (Mirage 2000, Jaguar, as well as Su-30MKI with modified missiles) capable of carrying nuclear bombs.

The Indian leadership espouses a "no first use" policy regarding nuclear weapons and views its arsenal as a means of **retaliation** in the event of a nuclear attack. Nevertheless, the country seeks technological advancement in its arsenal: work is being conducted on the creation of thermonuclear devices (India tested a device in 1998, which was positioned as thermonuclear, though its effectiveness remains unconfirmed). Overall, India's nuclear potential is relatively modern and continues to evolve, reflecting its desire to balance the nuclear forces of its neighbors—both Pakistan and China.

Pakistan

Pakistan has approximately 160-170 nuclear warheads. For Islamabad, nuclear weapons are the main guarantee against India's numerically superior conventional forces. Unlike India, Pakistan does not commit to a "no first use" policy and is theoretically prepared to employ nuclear weapons if a large-scale conflict threatens its statehood.

Pakistan's nuclear strategy emphasizes the deployment of diverse delivery systems for nuclear warheads, primarily ground-based:

• Short- and medium-range ballistic missiles (the Hatf, Ghauri, Shaheen series), capable of reaching distances of up to 2,000 km, thus targeting any objectives in India. These include missiles with multiple warheads (for instance, Shaheen-III and the tested Ababeel missile, designed for multiple blocks).
• Short-range missiles for tactical use on the battlefield (such as Nasr with a range of about 70 km). These are specifically designed to counter an advancing Indian army, demonstrating Pakistan's readiness to launch a localized nuclear strike against invading forces.
• Cruise missiles, both air- and ground-launched (Ra'ad, Babur), capable of carrying nuclear warheads and accurately hitting targets. Their existence broadens the options for employing nuclear weapons, beyond just ballistic missiles.

Unlike India, Pakistan currently lacks nuclear submarines, although steps are being taken to create a maritime deterrent element—particularly, tests of the Babur-3 cruise missile launched from a conventional submarine have been conducted. Pakistan is actively increasing the production of fissile materials (particularly highly enriched uranium and plutonium at the Khushab reactors) to expand its nuclear arsenal. Technologically, Pakistani nuclear warheads are considered less powerful (mainly improved atomic devices), but within the regional context, they serve as a substantial deterrent. The situation in South Asia remains delicate: any escalation of conflict between India and Pakistan raises concerns about nuclear-level escalation.

Israel and Iran: The Nuclear Factor in the Middle East

In the Middle East, only one country officially possesses nuclear weapons—Israel—while Iran is suspected of aspiring to create a bomb. This regional duality—the hidden Israeli arsenal versus Iranian nuclear ambitions—largely shapes the strategic landscape in the Middle East.

Israel

Israel has not declared itself a nuclear power, but experts estimate it has around 80-90 nuclear warheads. Israel likely developed its first nuclear charge back in the late 1960s with French technology. The official stance of the state remains: "Israel will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons to the Middle East," allowing for ambiguity. However, the existence of Israel's nuclear arsenal is nearly unquestionable in the international community.

The Israeli nuclear weapons triad is characterized by secrecy, but it is believed to include:

• Medium-range ballistic missiles “Jericho”. The latest modification Jericho III is said to be capable of striking targets at ranges of up to 4,000-6,000 km, covering all of the Middle East and significant parts of Europe.
• Dolphin-class submarines of German manufacture, modified to launch cruise missiles. These missiles are believed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads, providing Israel with a covert second-strike capability in case the country itself suffers a devastating attack.
• Air Force: F-15 and F-16 fighters, along with the latest F-35i, can carry nuclear weapons (either bombs or missiles). The air force has traditionally been the first component of Israel's nuclear capability since the time when bombs could be dropped from aircraft.

Israel places significant emphasis on keeping details of its arsenal secret. It is speculated that the warheads are stored in disassembled condition, and the actual number of warheads ready for immediate use may be lower than the declared estimates. Nevertheless, possessing even a few dozen nuclear warheads ensures Israel's security amid potentially hostile regimes. The nuclear factor has deterred direct military attacks on Israeli territory from regional states for decades.

Iran

Iran, on the other hand, does not possess nuclear weapons, but its nuclear program raises concerns in the international community. Tehran signed the NPT and officially denies any intention to create a bomb, claiming its atomic program is peaceful. However, in the past (before 2003), Iran engaged in secret developments related to nuclear weaponry, as noted by the IAEA. In 2015, an agreement (JCPOA) was reached to limit and monitor Iran's nuclear program, but in 2018, the USA exited the deal, and Iran began gradually exceeding the established limits a year later.

As a result, by 2025, Iran has significantly advanced in uranium enrichment technologies. It has accumulated stocks of uranium enriched to 60%—which is already close to weapon-grade levels (90+%). Experts estimate that, with a political decision, Tehran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for one nuclear warhead within months. However, creating a fully functional, compact, and reliable nuclear device suitable for missile deployment is a more complex task requiring additional testing and development.

Iran has medium-range ballistic missiles (the Shahab and Sejjil families, capable of reaching targets within a radius of 1,500-2,000 km, including Israel and parts of Europe). Theoretically, these missiles could carry a nuclear warhead if one were developed. The prospect of Iran possessing nuclear weapons triggers strategic recalibrations: Israel openly states it will not allow such a scenario, reserving the right to take preventive measures. Other regional countries (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt) might also reconsider their armament policies if Iran acquires a bomb.

For now, Iran remains a "threshold" state—possessing the knowledge and materials sufficient to develop nuclear weapons but not having them in hand. The world is closely monitoring negotiations to renew restrictions on its program. Preventing the further proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East is critical for global nuclear stability.

North Korea: A New Nuclear Player in East Asia

North Korea (DPRK) is the most "junior" nuclear power. The first nuclear test in Pyongyang was conducted in 2006, when it exited the NPT while violating agreements on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Since then, North Korea has conducted a series of increasingly powerful nuclear tests (the last confirmed in 2017, with an estimated yield of 150-200 kilotons in TNT equivalent). Open-source data suggests that the DPRK may have accumulated materials for 40-50 warheads, although the exact number is unknown. Approximately 20-30 nuclear devices are estimated to be assembled and capable of being deployed on carriers.

Particular concern is raised by Pyongyang's rapid progress in delivery systems for nuclear weapons. In recent years, North Korea has tested intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) (Hwasong-15, Hwasong-17) capable of theoretically reaching US territory. In 2023, the DPRK announced the testing of a solid-fuel ICBM (Hwasong-18), which, if confirmed, would indicate an increase in reliability and rapid deployment of its missile forces. In addition to ICBMs, North Korea has medium-range ballistic missiles that covers Japan and the entire region, as well as a large number of short-range tactical missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads and striking targets in South Korea.

Despite the modest size of its arsenal (about 50 warheads—much less than that of the great powers), nuclear weapons have fundamentally changed the balance of power around North Korea. Kim Jong-un's regime views its nuclear arsenal as a guarantee of its own security and survival. Attempts by the international community to achieve denuclearization through negotiations and sanctions have yet to succeed. In response to North Korean tests, its neighbors are strengthening their defenses: Japan and South Korea are deploying missile defense systems and enhancing their alliance with the USA, while voices in South Korea periodically call for the deployment of US tactical nuclear weapons or even the creation of its own nuclear potential.

From a military perspective, the DPRK's ability to execute a preemptive nuclear strike is tempered by the understanding of the inevitable devastating counter-strike from the USA. Nevertheless, the existence of North Korea's nuclear "card" complicates any armed scenarios on the peninsula. Any local conflict now carries the risk of escalation to the use of weapons of mass destruction, making the situation in East Asia one of the most volatile in terms of security and global risks.

What Investors Should Know

The distribution of nuclear weapons among countries is not only a matter of military security but also a factor capable of influencing the global economy and financial markets. While the probability of direct nuclear conflict remains low, the mere existence of significant stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction among several states lays the groundwork for so-called "tail risks" for global stability. Investors should consider the following points:

• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Increasing nuclear tensions (for instance, around Iran or on the Korean Peninsula) can lead to price spikes in oil, gold, and other safe-haven assets. Markets typically price the likelihood of extreme events as very low, but the estimated 17% probability of a nuclear incident this year by some analysts indicates that the risk is non-zero. An unexpected crisis could trigger panic selling on exchanges and capital fleeing to protective instruments.
• Defense Industry: The modernization of nuclear forces and a new arms race mean increased defense budgets in many countries. Major defense contractors (rocket and space corporations, submarine producers, control systems) may receive new contracts. Long-term investors might want to pay attention to the defense and high-tech sectors related to strategic programs—despite ethical considerations, government funding remains stable even during economic downturns.
• Political Decisions and Agreements: Negotiations regarding arms control and non-proliferation (or their collapse) can influence market sentiment. For example, the extension or termination of the New START treaty between the USA and Russia in 2026 will signal the direction in which global security is moving. Positive news about diplomatic agreements can reduce the risk premium, while key players exiting treaties heightens uncertainty.

Overall, the presence of nuclear weapons forms an invisible backdrop for the global economy. Most investors likely do not factor the onset of nuclear war into their models—the consequences would be too catastrophic. Nevertheless, the current distribution of nuclear forces influences geopolitical alliances, military expenditures, and indirectly affects those sectors that receive government contracts. Understanding which countries are armed with nuclear weapons and to what extent helps to objectively evaluate possible crisis scenarios. In recent decades, nuclear weapons have remained an instrument of deterrence rather than war—and markets assume that this state of affairs will continue. However, in a world where nuclear arsenals are once again growing and the treaty system is weakening, closely monitoring the nuclear balance ceases to be the concern of only political scientists. It becomes part of the broader risk landscape that must be considered by participants in financial markets and international business.