The Impact of Trump's Inauguration on the Russian Ruble: Analysis and Predictions
Following Donald Trump's inauguration, economists anticipate a notable impact on currency markets, particularly concerning the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. The event, scheduled for January 20, 2025, has sparked extensive discussions among analysts, who predict short-term spikes in the dollar's exchange rate and long-term fluctuations of the ruble throughout the year.
Expectations and Predictions
Economists interviewed by "Gazeta.Ru" believe that the dollar may briefly soar to 115 rubles following the inauguration. They argue that the ruble will remain under pressure due to factors related to future White House policies, including:
- The U.S. trade policy, which may intensify restrictions on Russian raw material exports.
- Tax and immigration reforms that could influence the attractiveness of investments in emerging markets.
- Increased sanctions pressure, which will reflect on currency flows and investments.
Moderate Ruble Weakening
According to estimates from experts consulted by "RBC Investments," the year 2025 is likely to bring about moderate weakening of the ruble. They suggest that the dollar rate will fluctuate within the range of 100-115 rubles, but a severe devaluation is not expected due to:
- The Russian economy continues to adapt to external shocks.
- The Central Bank is pursuing an inflation-targeting policy and maintaining currency reserves.
- A positive trade balance continues to support the national currency.
Main Risks for the Ruble
Despite moderate predictions, analysts highlight several risk factors that may exert pressure on the ruble:
- Sanctions: Potential tightening of restrictions related to oil and gas exports, as well as Russian banks' access to international settlements.
- Federal Reserve Rates: An increase in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve could intensify capital outflow from emerging markets, including Russia.
- Oil Prices: Fluctuations in oil and other commodity prices may affect the country's currency inflows.
Conclusion
Following Trump's inauguration, the ruble may face volatility; however, long-term prospects remain relatively stable. In the context of global economic uncertainty and internal challenges, the Russian economy will continue to adapt, allowing it to avoid sharp declines in the national currency's exchange rate.
Russian investors should consider potential fluctuations in the ruble's exchange rate and take measures to diversify their assets in order to minimize the impact of currency risks.
Predictions for the Ruble:
The ruble is likely to fluctuate within the range of 100-105 rubles per dollar in the coming weeks. This is due to the uncertainty surrounding the new U.S. president's foreign policy and the potential ramifications for the sanctions regime against Russia. Should external factors be unfavorable—for instance, stringent sanctions or a deterioration in the geopolitical situation—the ruble may weaken, and the dollar's exchange rate could temporarily rise to 110-120 rubles. These fluctuations may also be influenced by global trends, such as changes in oil and gas prices, which are critical for the Russian economy.
Predictions for the Stock Market:
The Russian stock exchange, judging by recent movements, started the week with gains, possibly linked to expectations of a softening of Trump's sanctions policy. Traders and investors may hope for reduced pressure on Russian assets and an improvement in external economic conditions. However, increased volatility is expected in the coming days, as the first month of the new presidency will be marked by significant political and economic decisions that could heavily influence investor sentiment.
If Trump indeed takes steps to soften sanctions and strengthen economic ties with Russia, this could have a positive impact on Russian stocks, especially those linked to oil, gas, and other strategic sectors. However, if his actions turn unpredictable or result in escalating international tensions, this could heighten risks for investors, which, in turn, would affect the ruble's exchange rate and stock market dynamics.
Conclusion:
Uncertainty during the initial weeks of Trump’s presidency is likely to lead to increased market volatility. Expectations of softened sanctions and improved economic conditions may support growth in the Russian stock market, but any adverse external factors (e.g., new sanctions or a deterioration in foreign policy) could lead to instability in the stock markets and weaken the ruble.
The ruble may experience fluctuations in light of news regarding potential negotiations between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. According to CNN, a phone call between the leaders of the two countries could take place a few days after Trump's inauguration. The discussion is expected to address the resolution of the Ukraine conflict, as well as the possibility of a personal meeting in the upcoming months.
Preparations for this call began several weeks ago; however, the exact date of the conversation has not yet been determined. Economists interviewed by “Ъ FM” believe that such news could influence the Russian currency, leading to its fluctuations in the near future.
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