Risks of Gas Supply Disruptions for Europe This Winter: Causes and Measures for Ensuring Energy Security
Main Causes of Possible Disruptions
1. Reduction in Imports of Russian Pipeline Gas
The reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe remains a critical theme in EU energy policy. Additionally, the expiration of a five-year transit agreement for Russian gas through Ukraine is anticipated by the end of 2024. Given the Ukrainian side's reluctance to extend the contract, the risk of ceasing remaining transit supplies through Ukraine in the near future becomes a tangible reality. This situation particularly affects countries like Austria and Hungary, which heavily rely on these supplies.
2. Instability in Global Energy Markets
Global instability in energy markets has led to sharp fluctuations in gas prices and a reduction in available supplies. Competition for LNG has intensified due to high demand in Asia, resulting in increased prices and higher costs for deliveries to Europe. Elevated prices and scarcity in liquefied natural gas availability create additional challenges for the EU in securing winter reserves.
EU Response Measures to Stabilize the Situation 
1. Increasing Imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
To mitigate dependence on Russian gas, EU countries are ramping up imports of LNG from the USA, Qatar, and other major producers. In recent years, countries such as Germany have constructed terminals for receiving LNG, facilitating supply diversification. However, even with increased LNG imports, the risk of gas shortages remains if the winter proves to be harsh.
2. Strengthening Cooperation with Norway and Other European Suppliers
Norway currently plays a leading role in gas supplies to Europe, compensating for some of the lost volumes from Russia. However, dependence on a single region remains a vulnerable position for the EU. In response to this issue, the EU is expanding cooperation with Algeria and other North African suppliers.
3. Creating Strategic Reserves and Enhancing Energy Efficiency
The European Commission is urging EU member states to actively build gas reserves, which can help stabilize supplies in the event of disruptions. Alongside this, EU countries are developing energy efficiency programs aimed at reducing gas consumption. Improving energy efficiency, especially in the residential and industrial sectors, can significantly decrease reliance on imports.
Outlook and Challenges for Europe
Despite the EU's efforts in diversifying supplies and building reserves, there remains a likelihood that a cold winter or sudden spikes in demand could lead to disruptions. Energy companies are warning that a sharp rise in gas prices might negatively impact businesses and consumers. Many enterprises will need to optimize resource usage to cope with high gas costs, which will also affect the EU's economy.
Europe is facing serious challenges in securing gas supplies for the winter of 2024–2025. The reduction in Russian gas supplies, global competition for LNG, and unpredictable weather conditions underscore the necessity for strengthening energy security. The EU is taking active steps to diversify energy sources, build reserves, and improve energy efficiency; however, the outcomes of these measures will depend on a multitude of factors. European countries must work collaboratively to ensure the stability and availability of energy resources in the long term.
As the founder of Open Oil Market (OOM), a platform for wholesale trading of oil products and resources, I deeply understand the importance of a strategic approach to ensuring energy resources in the context of global change. Our goal at OOM is to provide businesses with direct access to suppliers, enhancing transparency and resilience in the energy market. The European experience also highlights the significance of building strategic reserves and effective resource management, and we at OOM strive to ensure that our partners have access to stable, cost-effective energy resources for reliable business planning, even amid global challenges.
