Bitcoin's Dominance Declines Amid Rapid Growth of Ethereum and Altcoins

 In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin's (BTC) market share has decreased by almost 2 percentage points, from 65.4% to 63.6% (according to TradingView). Simultaneously, Ethereum's price surged by 30%, while several altcoins from the top 100 gained up to 40%. Bitcoin is currently holding in the range of $103–104K, reflecting strong demand from institutional investors. The growing interest in alternative crypto-assets signals a capital shift and risk redistribution in investment portfolios. A fundamental and technical analysis helps to understand the causes of this shift, taking into account macroeconomic and behavioral factors to develop short-term forecasts.

Fundamental Factors and Investor Interest

 The increased interest in Ethereum and other altcoins has several fundamental drivers. The recent Ethereum network upgrade (Pectra) has bolstered confidence in ETH, prompting investors to seek higher returns beyond Bitcoin. Institutional investors, relying on portfolio diversification, recognize the stability of BTC as “digital gold,” while reallocating a portion of capital into promising projects (DeFi, AI, etc.). Reduced macroeconomic risks (inflation, geopolitics) and an improved economic backdrop enhance risk appetite, supporting market overheating. Behavioral factors (the “herding effect,” fear of missing out—FOMO) accelerate asset reallocation and increase short-term volatility.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin

 According to technical indicators, Bitcoin is trading around key levels of $100–104K and is in the late phase of a bullish trend. The nearest support is noted at $100K; a breakout below this level could open the way for a correction down to $95–98K. The RSI on the daily chart is approaching the overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of consolidation. Resistance is located at $104–106K; overcoming this range could elevate the price target to $110–115K. Overall, the continued growth of Bitcoin depends on new investments and regulatory responses to the rising market capitalization of cryptocurrencies.

Technical Analysis of Ethereum

Ethereum is confidently reaching new annual highs and consolidating in a narrow range of $2,300–2,400. The current bullish breakout provides support at $2,100–2,200, which must hold for growth to continue. The RSI indicator on the weekly chart is already around 70, indicating strong buying sentiment. If the bulls manage to overcome the resistance at $2,500–2,600, the next target is $3,000. However, in the short term, a slight correction to $2,000 is possible if buying momentum decreases.

Altcoins and Capital Redistribution

 Among altcoins with anomalous growth, projects with developed ecosystems are leading. For example, Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) gained approximately 40% in a day, and tokens from the AI and DeFi sectors (TARS AI, Ethena, etc.) have doubled over the past week. Meme coins are not far behind: the price of Pepe (PEPE) skyrocketed over 40%, while Shiba Inu (+30%) and Dogecoin (+10%) continued their rally fueled by retail investors’ hype. Such spikes contribute to the decline in BTC dominance and the increase in the overall capitalization of altcoins, reflecting shifting trends in the market. The heightened volatility of altcoins, combined with positive news, compels market participants to reshape their cryptocurrency portfolios and reassess acceptable risk levels.

Macroeconomic and Behavioral Factors

 The macroeconomic environment continues to significantly influence the dynamics of crypto assets. Against the backdrop of easing inflation and diminishing geopolitical risks, the market participants’ risk appetite is increasing, favoring risky investments, including digital assets. Rate declines in developed economies strengthen demand for alternative instruments like cryptocurrencies. Simultaneously, psychological aspects are crucial: herding effects and FOMO exacerbate short-term fluctuations. Increased media and analyst attention to the new rally fuels investor optimism; however, exiting the “Extreme Greed” zone may trigger a sell-off.

Forecast for the Week and Month

• Weekly forecast: Moderate consolidation is expected following the sharp rally. Bitcoin may range between $100–105K, while Ethereum could fluctuate in the $2,300–2,500 range. Investors will keep an eye on news concerning spot ETFs, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and stock market dynamics. If the influx of investments persists, altcoins could continue their rise; however, if demand weakens, a local correction to support levels is possible.

• Monthly forecast: If the bullish trend continues, Bitcoin could potentially test the $110–115K marks. Even amid high volatility, pullbacks are likely to be limited, as bulls aim for new highs. In this scenario, Ethereum may reach $2,800–3,000 after successfully consolidating above $2,600. However, excessive optimism (“Extreme Greed”) and historically high valuations of crypto assets indicate increased risks of a local correction. Investors should consider long-term prospects and utilize diversification strategies to mitigate portfolio risk.

Conclusions and Recommendations

• For institutional investors: Continue to focus on fundamental assets while considering the growing momentum of altcoins. Investing in major DeFi and AI projects may enhance portfolio diversification. Careful risk management is essential: set stop orders and reinvest part of the profits.

• For retail investors: Exercise caution and avoid chasing extreme growths. Consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies and partial hedging of positions. Diversifying the cryptocurrency portfolio (including the most resilient tokens) will help mitigate the impact of possible corrections. The key is to maintain a long-term horizon and avoid emotional decisions amid panic or euphoria.