Cargo Traffic at Russian Sea Ports Decreased by 5.4% from January to April 2025

According to the Association of Maritime Trade Ports (ASOP), the total cargo traffic at Russian sea ports for the first four months of 2025 reached 280.7 million tons, representing a decrease of 5.4% compared to the same period last year. The decline affected both dry and liquid cargoes: the handling of dry cargo fell by 6.0% to 133.7 million tons, while liquid cargo decreased by 4.7% to 146.9 million tons. Exports continue to dominate with 221.3 million tons (−5.4%) of the total volume, while the share of imports remains modest at 13.7 million tons (+2.4%). The reduction in cargo flows may impact investments in port infrastructure and logistics.

Regional Dynamics

A downturn is observed across all key maritime basins, except for the Far East. The Baltic Sea basin showed the least decline at (−2.6%), while the most significant drops were noted in the Azov-Black Sea basin (−11.3%) and the Caspian basin (−33.9%). Conversely, cargo traffic in the Far East grew by 0.9%. The breakdown by basins is as follows:

Arctic Basin: 28.7 million tons (−7.8%) – the decline primarily affected liquid shipments, influenced by seasonal factors.
Baltic Basin: 90.6 million tons (−2.6%) – the downturn is generally moderate; liquid cargo handling has decreased, although dry cargo (including containers) showed slight growth (+5.2%).
Azov-Black Sea Basin: 83.3 million tons (−11.3%) – the significant decline is associated with a sharp drop in dry cargo (−21.9%), which may be caused by changes in the export routes for grain and other raw materials.
Caspian Basin: 2.2 million tons (−33.9%) – a sharp decline in dry cargo volumes (−49.5%), partially offset by a slight increase in liquid shipments.
Far East Basin: 75.8 million tons (+0.9%) – the only growth attributed to an increase in dry cargo handling (+2.2%); the key port in the East, Vanino, demonstrated a 22.7% increase, reflecting rising supplies of coal and fertilizers to the Asia-Pacific region.

Analysis by Cargo Categories

An extended analysis shows divergent trends across major commodity groups. Crude oil volumes amounted to 87.6 million tons (−5.3%), while petroleum products reached 42.9 million tons (−5.2%), indicating moderate decline in the energy segment. In contrast, coal handling increased to 60.8 million tons (+2.2%), reflecting a shift in fuel flow direction toward exports in the Far East. Containerized cargo flows saw negligible changes, totaling 18.2 million tons (−0.6%), indicating relative stability in global trade.

Notably, the grain segment experienced a dramatic collapse, with grain handling plummeting by 52.7% to 12.1 million tons. This decline is linked to shifts in the agricultural market and export restrictions, imposing additional pressures on the profitability of port operations focused on agricultural exports. Other cargo groups also displayed mixed results:

Mineral Fertilizers: 15.6 million tons (+12.1%) – record growth reflecting diversification of trade with developing markets.
Ferrous Metals: 8.0 million tons (+19.3%) – increased demand stimulating investments in specialized terminals.
Iron Ore: 4.2 million tons (+39.9%) – significant growth strengthening cargo flows along eastern routes.
LNG: 13.0 million tons (+1.5%) – continued growth in the LNG segment supports the commercial viability of Arctic projects.
Food Liquids: 2.0 million tons (−9.2%) – a slight reduction in the food liquid cargo segment.

The structural change in the commodity profile (declining oil and grain, coupled with rising ores and fertilizers) necessitates adjustments in port infrastructure and logistics.

Impact on Port Infrastructure and Logistics

The decline in cargo traffic creates additional risks for the profitability of port infrastructure. While some capacities remain underutilized (allowing for modernization and maintenance), decreasing throughput complicates the return on investment for capital-intensive projects. Enhancing operational efficiency will require adaptations to logistical schemes.

Key factors include:

The reduction in workload on berths and technological chains provides temporary flexibility in cargo distribution among terminals.
Logistics: optimizing routes and delivery times helps offset the decline in throughput, reducing costs and enhancing the efficiency of port operations.
The growth of transit cargo (+3.9%) and container flows signals the need for investments in multimodal logistics and expanded container infrastructure.
Reevaluating transport strategies and optimizing transportation routes can help recoup some losses by accelerating transshipment operations and reducing vessel downtimes.
Enhanced control over tariffs and cargo transportation priorities can help mitigate financial risks associated with reduced income amidst declining volumes.

Thus, the change in the cargo traffic structure necessitates a reassessment of capital investment plans and modernization of port infrastructure towards more flexible and profitable solutions. Port infrastructure and modern logistics will play a critical role in stabilizing cargo traffic.

Investment Aspects

The dynamics of port cargo traffic directly impact the attractiveness of the industry for investors. Declining volumes raise concerns regarding project profitability and asset returns. In the current market conditions, industry participants should consider heightened financial risks and conduct thorough investment analyses before making new commitments. Key considerations include:

Profitability and Returns: a drop in cargo flows reduces potential revenues for operators, directly affecting the internal rate of return on projects. This necessitates adjustments to forecasts and payback periods for investments.
Capital Investments: slow growth in throughput may delay large-scale investments in port capacity expansion. Nonetheless, it is crucial to maintain long-term investments in infrastructure to support the strategic directions of the industry.
Financial Risks: increased volatility in demand and external conditions necessitates reserving funds for unforeseen expenses, reducing the investment attractiveness of assets.
Long-term Investments: critical projects (e.g., development of Arctic routes and the new LAPECO terminal) remain in focus for investors but require scenario analysis and flexibility in implementation.
Overall, investors should consider the macroeconomic environment and cargo flow dynamics when developing portfolio strategies: even minor changes in the global economy can significantly adjust projected returns on port projects.

Macroeconomic Background

The global and domestic macroeconomic situation significantly influences port cargo flows. Slowdown in global economic growth and reduced demand for raw materials from major economies (China, EU) diminishes export activity through Russian ports. While domestic economic growth remains generally stable, currency fluctuations and inflationary constraints affect companies' capacity for new capital investments. Therefore, macroeconomics is a decisive factor that shapes the primary development vectors in the industry. The current state of market conditions notably influences investors' decisions: volatility in key commodities leads to rapid adjustments in strategy.

Key Takeaways

Cargo traffic at Russian sea ports declined by 5.4% (to 280.7 million tons) in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
The most pronounced volume decreases were observed in the Azov-Black Sea (−11.3%) and Caspian (−33.9%) basins, while the Far East was the only region showing growth (+0.9%).
Grain handling fell by more than half, while ores, fertilizers, and metals saw substantial increases, altering the cargo structure.
The change in cargo flows raises questions about the current profitability of port assets and necessitates a reassessment of investment analysis in light of new logistical trends.
Transport Strategy: updating routing policies and expanding cooperation at the international level could help stabilize cargo traffic and improve the profitability of logistics chains.
In an uncertain global economy and changing market conditions, long-term investments should focus on projects that ensure sustainable profitability and align with transport strategy and port infrastructure modernization.

Cargo turnover of Russian seaports decreased by 5.4% in January-April 2025.