Bitcoin Price Forecast for May 2025

The price of Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, and investors are keen to understand what to expect from the leading cryptocurrency's value in May 2025. This analytical forecast examines key market influences and expert opinions regarding the potential price dynamics of Bitcoin.

Current Market Situation and Dynamics

As of the end of April 2025, the price of Bitcoin is close to the $95,000 mark. Following the volatility of the first quarter, when prices dropped to around $74,000 in early April, Bitcoin has rapidly recovered and reached multi-week highs. On April 23, Bitcoin's value was approximately $94,500, a level not seen since early March of this year.

This strong price growth in April can be attributed to several factors, including a weakening U.S. dollar and rising gold prices amid expectations of a dovish monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Investors are anticipating a scenario in which the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower its key interest rate by the summer of 2025. Additional optimism has been fueled by encouraging political signals, which have increased risk appetite. As a result, interest in the cryptocurrency market has strengthened once again, and Bitcoin, as the largest digital currency, has demonstrated a leading trend.

The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, amid Bitcoin's rally, has approached record levels of about $3 trillion. At the same time, Bitcoin's dominance has increased, indicating a redistribution of funds in favor of the most reliable asset in the crypto space. Entering May 2025, the market is in a bullish phase characterized by heightened investor interest and steady price increases.

Factors Affecting Bitcoin's Price in May 2025

Monetary Policy and Macroeconomics

The monetary policy of the major world economies remains one of the key drivers for Bitcoin. As May 2025 approaches, investors are closely watching the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which markets expect to lower the key interest rate by June. A dovish monetary policy typically benefits risk assets – a decrease in borrowing costs and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar enhances the appeal of alternative savings methods, including Bitcoin. A weaker dollar makes investing in Bitcoin more attractive for global investors, while low rates stimulate the search for yield beyond traditional instruments. If macroeconomic conditions remain favorable (inflation under control and recession averted through regulatory efforts), this will support further Bitcoin price growth. In May, macroeconomic reports (inflation levels, labor market data, etc.) and comments from Fed representatives will also hold significant importance: unexpected figures could adjust investor sentiment and impact Bitcoin's dynamics.

Investor Demand and Market Sentiment

Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market ahead of May 2025 can be characterized as predominantly optimistic. Large institutional investors continue to show interest in Bitcoin, viewing it as a means of portfolio diversification and capital protection. Some funds and companies have increased their Bitcoin holdings, considering the price drop in the first quarter as an opportunity to acquire the asset. Rising prices are also attracting retail investors: the approach of the psychologically significant $100,000 milestone intensifies the FOMO (fear of missing out) effect, further fueling demand. Overall, the influx of new capital into the market and the holding of Bitcoin by long-term investors create a favorable foundation for price growth.

Supply and the Halving Effect

On the supply side, a crucial factor for Bitcoin remains the recent halving (the reduction of block rewards for miners) that occurred in the spring of 2024. After the 2024 halving, the supply of new coins was cut in half, which historically has led to asset scarcity amid steady or increasing demand. Miners are facing higher production costs, making them less willing to sell coins at low prices, thus forming a sort of "floor" for the price. In addition, a significant portion of Bitcoin is held by long-term investors who are not quick to part with the asset during intermediate price fluctuations. History has shown that the year following a halving typically experiences the most substantial price increases (as seen after the halvings of 2012, 2016, and 2020). Therefore, limited supply in conjunction with high demand creates strong premises for further price appreciation.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trends

The technical picture for Bitcoin as it approaches May 2025 also indicates a continuation of the upward trend. In mid-term charts, Bitcoin is forming a sequence of higher highs and lows, confirming the bullish market sentiment. Trading volumes remain elevated during upward impulses, indicating real buyer support.

The most notable technical barrier ahead is the psychologically important $100,000 per coin level. This mark acts as strong resistance: some traders may take profits around such a round figure. However, in the event of a confident breakthrough and consolidation above $100,000, a pathway for further rally opens for Bitcoin. Some analysts are indicating the next target range at $110,000 to $120,000, where a new resistance zone may appear. A breakthrough above $120,000 in May is considered unlikely without substantial new momentum, but in a bullish market, an acceleration of growth cannot be entirely excluded.

Conversely, in the event of a correction, nearby support levels may form around $90,000 and $85,000. According to several forecasts, this range represents the lower boundary of potential price fluctuations in May. A more significant decline could return prices to the $75,000 to $80,000 area (from which Bitcoin rebounded in April), but such a scenario is viewed as less probable given the prevailing positive dynamics.

It is also worth noting the volatility: even in a rising market, Bitcoin can experience sharp pullbacks of 10% to 15% without changing the global trend. Nevertheless, as long as Bitcoin remains above key support levels and continues to attract capital inflow, the technical picture remains favorable for continued growth.

Expert Opinions and Forecasts

Cryptocurrency market analysts generally agree that Bitcoin will maintain an upward trajectory in May 2025. Bitget Research indicates that, assuming the current macroeconomic trends persist, Bitcoin stands a strong chance of surpassing the $100,000 mark. Ryan Lee, a lead analyst at Bitget, highlights that the anticipated shift in Fed policy will act as a key catalyst, forecasting that by the latter half of May, in light of expectations for interest rate cuts, Bitcoin will be able to stabilize above the psychological level.

Other experts share similar views. For instance, Victor Pershikov, an analyst at SWR Capital, identifies the $100,000 mark as a near-term price target. Furthermore, he anticipates an expansion of the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization to approximately $3.2 trillion (up from the current $2.95 trillion), which will be accompanied by a strengthening of Bitcoin's position. Subsequently, Pershikov estimates that the price of the leading cryptocurrency could reach $130,000 to $150,000 throughout 2025. He assesses the probability of a new all-time high in the coming months as high.

Possible Price Scenarios for May 2025

• Bullish Scenario: If favorable macro conditions and high demand continue, Bitcoin confidently surpasses the $100,000 threshold in early May. Breaking through this psychological barrier may accelerate capital inflows, potentially driving the price to around $110,000 by the end of the month. In this case, growth occurs with minimal significant pullbacks.

• Base Scenario: The most anticipated outcome by many analysts is a gradual movement or consolidation in the $90,000 to $100,000 range. Bitcoin may test the $100,000 level in the middle of the month and stabilize a little above it, but without sharp jumps. By the end of May, the price, according to this scenario, is expected to be near $100,000, reflecting moderate growth.

• Correction Scenario: If temporary saturation of demand in the market or a negative external factor arises, a price correction becomes possible. In this case, Bitcoin may not immediately overcome the $100,000 milestone, instead retreating to the $80,000 to $90,000 area. A short-term decline may drop the price to as low as $85,000. However, even in this scenario, the global bullish trend will not be disrupted, and as selling pressure eases, the price is likely to return to growth.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Bitcoin price forecast for May 2025 can be characterized as cautiously optimistic. A combination of factors – anticipated easing of monetary policy, persistent investor interest, and limited Bitcoin supply – creates the conditions for cryptocurrency price growth. There is a high probability that Bitcoin will test and surpass historical highs in May, approaching and potentially exceeding the $100,000 level. By crossing the six-figure price threshold for the first time, Bitcoin will set a new record, enhancing investor confidence. Assuming current trends remain in place, the leading digital currency could consolidate its success, although short-term price fluctuations cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain mindful of market volatility: even amidst a favorable forecast, a balanced assessment of risks and a long-term investment approach should remain the strategy.