Price Forecast for Avalanche (AVAX) in May 2025: Analytics, Events, and Risks

Avalanche (AVAX) is a layer-one blockchain platform with its own cryptocurrency, AVAX, known for its high transaction speed and scalability. As May 2025 approaches, investors are keenly interested in the prospects of this platform. This article presents a price forecast for Avalanche in May 2025, based on fundamental analysis (key events, news, partnerships, market trends) and a brief technical analysis (support/resistance levels, price trends). It also discusses the main risks for investors planning to invest in AVAX.

Fundamental Analysis of Avalanche: Key Events and Trends

To assess the price outlook for AVAX, it is essential to consider the fundamental factors that drive investor confidence and demand for this cryptocurrency. Avalanche has solidified its market position through a series of strategic partnerships. In the fall of 2024, the Avalanche Foundation announced a collaboration with Visa and the launch of the Avalanche Card, a cryptocurrency card that allows users to make payments using AVAX and other cryptocurrencies wherever Visa cards are accepted. Previously, the platform integrated with Amazon Web Services (AWS), simplifying the deployment of Avalanche nodes and subnets in the AWS cloud environment. Furthermore, their partnership with JPMorgan within its blockchain platform Onyx emphasized the interest of traditional financial institutions in Avalanche's technologies.

Avalanche is finding applications in the real economy, which enhances the fundamental value of the AVAX token. For instance, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) is testing the Avalanche blockchain to digitize millions of vehicle titles, increasing efficiency and security in document handling. Global investment firm Franklin Templeton launched a tokenized money market fund based on Avalanche, showcasing how traditional finance can integrate with blockchain. Additionally, Turkish ticketing company Passo is collaborating with Tixbase to utilize Avalanche for modernizing ticket sales systems, ensuring more reliable and transparent ticket tracking. These examples reflect the growing demand for Avalanche technologies in public services, finance, and the entertainment industry.

On the technological front, the Avalanche platform continues to actively develop its ecosystem. Avalanche's architecture includes so-called subnets—individual blockchains launched on top of the main network to alleviate traffic and cater to specific applications. In 2024, developers conducted a major upgrade (referred to as Avalanche 9000), which enhanced the network's performance and scalability. Avalanche is also compatible with Ethereum (supporting the Ethereum Virtual Machine), making it easier to port smart contracts and decentralized applications into the Avalanche ecosystem.

The economics of the AVAX token also lay the groundwork for its long-term value growth. The network operates on a Proof-of-Stake algorithm, with a significant portion of AVAX coins staked by validators to secure the network, reducing the amount of coins in circulation. Moreover, all transaction fees on Avalanche are burned (removed from circulation), creating deflationary pressure on the supply of AVAX as network activity increases. As of spring 2025, Avalanche's market cap is around $9 billion, positioning AVAX among the top 20 cryptocurrencies. This standing enhances investor confidence and attracts attention from institutional market participants.

In 2025, the overall cryptocurrency market shows signs of recovery from previous downturns. Following Bitcoin's halving in 2024, investor interest in digital assets has grown, and AVAX, with its strong fundamentals, is drawing additional attention. Macroeconomic conditions are also gradually improving. With slowing inflation and easing monetary policy, investors are becoming more risk-tolerant, leading to a capital influx into cryptocurrencies. This overall positive market sentiment may support demand for AVAX in May 2025, provided there are no sudden negative events.

Technical Analysis of AVAX: Support and Resistance Levels

By the end of April 2025, the price of AVAX is hovering around $22 per token. Over the last 12 months, the price of Avalanche has notably increased from the lows of the bear market (around $10–$15), demonstrating a recovery amid improved market conditions. However, current prices are still more than six times lower than the all-time high of approximately $146 reached in 2021, highlighting the potential for further growth should a bullish market return.

The AVAX chart at the beginning of 2025 indicates a moderate upward trend. Since the fall of 2024, there have been a series of higher lows and highs, although the pace of growth remains subdued. Such price movements suggest a gradual strengthening of buyer positions: even after pullbacks, Avalanche's price does not drop to previous lows each time, which is a technical indicator of a bullish sentiment forming.

The nearest important levels on the AVAX chart are the support zone around $18–$20 and resistance at approximately $25. The $18–$20 area has repeatedly prevented the price from declining further in past months, indicating buyer activity at these levels. Conversely, the region around $25 serves as strong resistance: a decisive breakout above this level would confirm the continuation of the upward trend and may open a pathway for Avalanche toward the next target around $30. If negative factors intensify pressure on the market, a drop below $18 could signal a weakening bullish momentum, potentially leading to a deeper correction (down to the $15 area).

AVAX Price Forecast for May 2025

Taking into account the combination of positive fundamental factors and a moderately upward technical trend, the forecast for May 2025 for Avalanche can be characterized as cautiously optimistic. The base scenario suggests that throughout May, the price of AVAX will largely remain in the range of approximately $20–$25. In the event of favorable news flow and continued overall market growth, Avalanche may gradually strengthen toward the upper end of this range or even temporarily test levels of $28–$30.

At the same time, it is essential to consider an alternative (more cautious) scenario. If the cryptocurrency market experiences a correction or negative news emerges, Avalanche is likely to stay closer to the lower end of the mentioned range (around $18–$20) throughout the month. In the event of a significant deterioration in sentiment, a temporary price drop below key support may occur; however, this negative scenario is unlikely without broader pressure on the entire crypto market.

Investment Risks in Avalanche

Despite the positive trends, investing in AVAX carries risks that need to be taken into account:

High market volatility: Cryptocurrencies are characterized by sharp price swings. The price of AVAX can change significantly over a short period due to investor sentiment and speculation.
Regulatory uncertainty: The legislative framework governing the crypto industry is still being established. New restrictions or bans imposed by regulators (both at national and international levels) could negatively impact the prices of digital assets, including Avalanche.
Platform competition: The field of layer-one blockchains and smart contracts is highly competitive. The emergence of faster or more convenient solutions (other L1 blockchains or popular Ethereum Layer-2 solutions) could slow the influx of users and capital into the Avalanche ecosystem, potentially limiting AVAX's price growth.
Technical risks: No technological platform is immune from failures or vulnerabilities. Potential technical issues with the Avalanche network itself or successful attacks on protocols and applications (e.g., hacks of decentralized applications within this network) could undermine market participant trust.
Macroeconomic factors: Global financial conditions affect the cryptocurrency market. Rising interest rates, economic recession, or capital outflows from risk markets could lead to decreased investor interest in cryptocurrencies, including AVAX.

In conclusion, Avalanche (AVAX) has every chance to demonstrate positive dynamics in May 2025, provided that current trends and favorable news flow are maintained. Nevertheless, investors should remain cautious and account for the aforementioned risks when making investment decisions.